SOMALI AUTHOR NURUDDIN FARAH SPEAKS TRUTH TO POWER [INTERVIEW]

By Brittany Vickers

The current images of Somalia are those of a country ravaged by a 22-year dictatorship and perpetual civil war. Yet through 12 books and countless essays centered on Somalia, author Nuruddin Farah has refuted those images of his homeland and solidified his place as one of Africa’s leading literary voices. EBONY spoke with the global activist and educator on how he keeps Somalia alive through his writing.

EBONY: Growing up in Somalia, books were not easily accessible. At what point did your interest in literature pique despite not having books at your fingertips?

Nuruddin Farah: Books for children specifically and books in general were not available. I had to read whatever books my older brother could lay his hands on. I was between 9 and 11 years old, and I had difficulties understanding many of the words. It was my brother’s idea to give me thick books, to decrease the amount of mischief I could get into.

EBONY: So early on you were introduced to authors and stories from around the world. How did that exposure influence you?

NF: I discovered that the Russians were writing about Russia and the French were writing about the French. So early on in my life I thought, wouldn’t it be necessary to write down stories in which Somali names—children’s names and parents’—would appear.

EBONY: Initially, it was impossible for you to tell your stories in Somalian. How did you move away from the oral tradition?

NF: In a way, tragically I could not [write] in Somali, my mother tongue. Somalia had no standardized script, so one could not write in Somalian.

I would be the first one to move away from [the oral tradition] but [not] completely. I go to the oral tradition quite often; it’s a treasure I borrow [from] and informs a great deal of the writing. I love the oral tradition, but I think one must transcend it, because the only person who can hear you is the person in front of you.

EBONY: How does the cosmopolitan Somalia you grew up in compare to present day Somalia?

NF: Things are terrible [with] the continued absence of the basic necessities in Somalia—in terms of education, in terms of health, in terms of peace, in terms of economic, in terms of everything. The Somali-speaking peninsula of the world is lacking far behind our brethren and sistren in the other neighboring countries.

The tragedy of Somalia is, they have been given a life of discontinuity for the past two decades, and that has affected them mentally, psychologically, educationally and socially.

Read more at EBONY

Source: EBONY

The 14 rules for predicting future geopolitical events

Two big personalities(AP Photo/RIA-Novosti, Mikhail Klimentyev, Presidential Press Service)

Nations are eccentric. But they also have threads of repeated history through which we can discern what comes next. For five centuries, since Ivan the Terrible, for instance, Russia has been characterized by one-man rule, an exaggerated sense of identity, and an acceptance of often deadly cruelty toward individual citizens.  Therefore, it is not surprising that those traits are the bricks and mortar of Vladimir Putin’s rule today.

Many political scientists dismiss the detection of such trends as “deterministic.” Some insist that, unlike in economics and statistics, there is as yet in fact no useful algorithm for foreseeing events—the only tool available to political forecasters is their own intuition. But it is vapid to observe the world, its nations and peoples as an unfathomable mob. History is not a science—but neither is it pure chaos. In aninterview with Quartz last fall, statistician Nate Silver rejected the possibility of predicting geopolitics in the way that he forecasts US elections, and he has a point. Yet, to borrow his own phrase, you can pick out the signal from the noise, and from that derive the likely direction if not the outcome of events.

One of the instruments for doing so is history, as discussed. But there also is a perceptible universal trend to events that cuts across borders. Last fall, we told you about the 11 indicators of energy and geopolitics (here are the original 10; here is the 11th, added in November). Now, we present 14 rules governing geopolitical events. These rules do not divine the future. Rather they allow you, generally speaking, to separate yourself from the unruly, conjectural maw of global opinion-makers and decipher for yourself what is going on, and the probable scenario or scenarios to unfold next. Neither are they complete—please send along your own rules (s@qz.com) and we will publish the best.

This is the first of two posts. The second, derived from the rules here,can be found here and includes our forecasts of global events for 2013.

The rules of global events

1. Muddle-along rule

On and off for several decades, knowing analysts have forecast state collapse for Pakistan, the Philippines, Somalia, and other nations. Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan have been said to be destined for economic ruin, and North Korea for the ash heap of history. Yet they have gone on—often with the help of the global community, but gone on they have. The lesson is that countries tend to muddle along regardless of the trouble, and not collapse.

2. Precipice rule

A corollary to Rule No. 1. Even the most violence-riven nations tend not to plunge over the precipice, as it seems they might, but to pull back if only at the last moment and not devolve into utter chaos and ruin. Often they need help—last year, Kenya sent troops to Somalia to break up the radical militia al-Shabab, for example. But absent the Precipice Rule, Kenya’s intervention would not have worked: Somalians in fact did not wish to dive into the abyss. So al-Shabab could be uprooted.

3. Conspiracy rule

When you find a simple explanation for an event, the safest bet is to embrace it. To be sure, conspiracies exist—what would war be without them, for instance? But they are much rarer than many suppose. Generally speaking, groups of people do not successfully conceive and execute dastardly schemes; even if they want to, they are typically confounded by the compound physics of too many moving parts and human fallibility. (You can think of this as the Occam’s Razor of geopolitics.)

4. Economic/health/injustice rule

A desire for these three things—economic success, good health and justice—is the big driver in political revolt and revolution. The inflection point is when a critical mass of individuals despairs for the future of its children, and youths feel they can succeed only under a different circumstance. Governments generally do not fall over questions of liberty and political expression, which are not nearly as potent as a collective sense of injustice, helplessness or outrage over the security or health of their children. To battle this rule, a regime will try to change the subject (using the potent factors of Rule No. 14—nationalism, xenophobia, jingoism and fear of instability) and, if that fails, to scare the wits out of its population.

5. Idea rule

The most over-rated of the drivers of change. Political ideas and theories, even when they are brilliant, only very rarely gain the critical mass to move events. But occasionally they do. A case in point is the Arab Spring. Originally triggered by Rule No. 4, the Spring has spread and been sustained by the idea of the right to rise up.

6. Caesar rule

When states are muddling along, staying away from the precipice and not at the stage of revolt, as described in Rules No. 4 and 5, the only other way that dictators are typically ousted is defection or assassination. Generally speaking, a key ally or a few will either pull away from a ruler, causing an apparently strong edifice of power to crumble, or kill him outright.

7. Staying in power rule

The ultimate objective of almost every leader in the world. Governments including dictatorships may seem sclerotic, but can become among the most nimble of things when under existential threat. Keep this in mind when you are tempted to say, “He will never change. He has always been that way.”

8. Territory rule

Among the most powerfully visceral forces in politics. A threat to even the slenderest sliver of land can arouse the primal and uncontrolled indignation of a people. When territory is involved, common sense can vanish even among otherwise worldly and balanced leaders and their people, leading to brittle diplomacy and, if Rule No. 2 is not invoked, a drift toward war.

9. The rule of averages

As with most matters in life, events tend toward the average, the local version of the moderate middle. There can be periods of wild, insane extremism. But then people are prone to calm down, do business and seek strong, stable and bright futures for their children.

10. Big personality rule

What would Venezuela have been during the 2000s without Hugo Chavez? Libya during the last quarter of the 20th century without Moamar Gadhafi? Russia for the last dozen years without Vladimir Putin? For that matter, Great Britain in 1939 without Winston Churchill, and Vietnam in the 1950s and 1960s without Ho Chi Minh? In politics, personality matters, and big, idiosyncratic personalities move and dominate events.

No. 10 has symbiosis with the following two rules.

11. True-believer rule

While people and countries tend toward the middle, events can turn on exceptions operating on the extremes. Hitler’s Germany is an example. Today, Khamenei’s Iran, Afghanistan’s Taliban, Kim’s North Korea and Chávez’s Venezuela punch above their weight in influencing the geopolitical landscape. 

12. Mountain rule

Like Rule No. 10, this is a direct carryover from the energy indicators. That is, certain countries are so large and their behavior so singular that their actions can create and disrupt economic and geopolitical trends. China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States are among the Mountains. When one or more of them step into the picture, they can and do create news.

There are three corollaries to the Mountain Rule:

                The future superpower corollary: China is not yet a military or economic power of the stature of the US, but since most assume it will be, it is more or less already treated and behaves as one. As a Mountain, it can and does shape and shift economic and political trends.

                 The former colonial/great power corollary: When you formerly were a great power, it is hard to give up the mantle. Such is the lot of countries like France and Great Britain. Though well past their great-power prime—and not Mountains in either case—both from time to time play outsized roles in big events, such as France’s 2011 intervention in Libya. A problem comes, however, when inflated former great-power thinking conflicts with current powers, in which case it is regarded as a nuisance. Such is the case of Russia, a Mountain whose often countervailing policies seem to be Moscow’s strategy for staying in the great-power game (see next corollary).

                  The perceived great power corollary: India, Iran and Turkey all perceive themselves as great powers (and in the latter two cases actually were a long time ago, and as such also fall under the previous corollary). So they can and do behave in ways that impact events far beyond their shores. India projects its weight around the Indian Ocean and the Subcontinent, Turkey around the Mediterranean and into Central Asia, and Iran around the Persian Gulf and into the Levant. Russia, having lost its great-power status in 1991, interjects its leverage wherever it sees a useful opening.

13. Getting-rich rule

Why do leaders act as they do? Often, look no further than personal enrichment.

14. Local politics rule

Most geopolitics begin at home. Whether deliberate or inadvertent, domestic politics are a crucial contextual determinant of future events. Among key local influences are xenophobia, nationalism and jingoism.

EGYPT REJECTS ETHIOPIA DAM STORAGE CAPACITY

Egypt’s irrigation ministry says the current capacity of the Renaissance Dam will negatively affect its water share

Ethiopia’s Great Renaissance Dam is constructed in Guba Woreda, some 40 km (25 miles) from Ethiopia’s border with Sudan, June 28, 2013. (Photo: Reuters)

Egypt has objected to the storage capacity of Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam, currently under construction, which it fears will negatively affect its Nile water share.

Alaa Yassin, spokesperson on the Ethiopia dam issue at Egypt’s irrigation ministry, called for decreasing the dam’s capacity, currently set at 74 billion cubic metres, as this will have an adverse effect on Egypt’s water supply.

Yassin stated, according to state news agency MENA on Sunday, that his country’s “studies” on the dam have shown that the capacity is “unjustified” and “technically unacceptable.”

In October, Ethiopia said it had completed 40 percent of the construction necessary for its $4.2 billion dam project, adding that the first stage of the dam will be operational from June 2015. The 6,000 megawatt dam, set to be Africa’s largest, is expected to be completed by 2017.

Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan have created a tripartite committee to conduct negotiations on the dam, a source of concern for Egypt.

Ethiopia is building the dam on the Blue Nile, the Nile’s most significant tributary, supplying most of its water

The committee is expected to meet mid-January to choose an international firm to conduct studies on the dam’s impact. This meeting has been postponed twice while some firms have withdrawn from the pool of prospective candidates to conduct the study.

In previous statements, Egyptian officials have said that there are several technical issues that could be discussed with Ethiopia should the anticipated report reveal that the dam will diminish Egypt’s water supply.

Egypt will likely need an additional 21 billion cubic metres of water per year by 2050, on top of its current 55 billion cubic metre quota, to meet the water needs of a projected population of 150 million, according to Egypt’s National Planning Institute.

Source: Ahram Online

Oil will roil everything

If sub-$90 oil persists, look for much nervousness even in Riyadh.

There’s a very good chance that we have already seen more or less the average price of oil for the year—$50 to $60 a barrel. (I’ve made a wager with colleagues on the energy beat that Brent crude will end 2015 at $57.75 a barrel.)

We have already weighed in on how these prices will shake up geopolitics this year: In brief, OPEC’s richest countries—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar—will suffer a hit, regardless of their current game faces, but have no choice other than to see their low-price strategy through to its conclusion. This strategy seeks to drive higher-cost rival producers out of the business—those in the US shale oil patch, Canadian oil sands, and Brazilian deepwater crude. The strategy is guided in large part by the Stay in Power Rule, which states that political leaders, regardless of their locality, will do what it takes to keep their jobs. In this case, the longer that shale producers in particular are permitted to build market share, the greater the threat to incumbent drillers in the Persian Gulf.

But along the way, these rich countries will be bruised by the loss of income and draining down of their prodigious cash reserves. Saudi Arabia in particular claims it’s prepared to withstand cut-rate prices for up to five years, but this reeks of bravura: If sub-$90 oil persists for two years—and possibly before—look for much nervousness and a change of tactics even in Riyadh.

As for the poorer OPEC members—such as Iran, Nigeria, and Venezuela—they have barely any cash reserves about which to become agitated. Nigerian officials specifically have observed the Getting Rich Rule all these years, feeding from the trough while large swaths of the population have gone without electricity.

But now that the commodity boom is over, Staying in Power will guide the behavior of these lesser OPEC producers. Low oil prices and tightened government spending can lead to public unrest, in line with the Injustice Rule, which explains the public reaction under conditions of perceived economic and judicial unfairness. Look for a combination of reactions: an initial impulse by governments to crack down on unrest, but eventually—the longer that prices stay low—a move to greater fiscal discipline and economic diversification. What not to expect: utter collapse. This is because, even in times of desperation, nations tend to Muddle Along.

Source: qz.com

Somalia: The Old Thief Is The Same As The New Thief

January 10, 2015: During 2014 AU peacekeepers and Somali troops continued pushing al Shabaab out of territory it had controlled since their formation in 2006. In the last two years al Shabaab has lost control of 85 percent of the area it controlled at its peak in 2012. There are now two areas where al Shabaab still exercises some control. One is in the northeast, near the Puntland border and the other in the south along the Jubba River and the Kenyan border. Al Shabaab also has men living covertly in Mogadishu and some other towns and cities. 

Here they plan and carry out terrorist attacks while receiving reinforcements and supplies (weapons and bomb making materials) from the base areas or locally. 

There are 22,000 AU peacekeepers (including troops from Kenya and Ethiopia) in the country as well as about as many Somali soldiers. There are over 50,000 pro-government militias that mainly defend their own areas from al Shabaab takeover.

Even in areas where a visible al Shabaab presence has been eliminated some of the Islamic terrorists continue to operate as bandits. This has become a major problem where there are large numbers of locals dependent on food aid. The al Shabaab like to attack the food trucks, even when they are accompanied by armed guards. A truckload of food can always be quickly turned into cash or favors and is a favorite target. 

This is causing some serious hunger problems in parts of the interior, where a few starvation deaths have been reported.

January 6, 2015: In the south (Gedo) al Shabaab publically executed four men it had accused of spying for the United States. The Islamic terrorists are obsessed with halting the ability of the Americans to find their leaders and other key personnel and kill them with missiles. The U.S. does have some informants on the ground, but a lot of intel comes from UAV surveillance and electronic eavesdropping. 

Some al Shabaab know this, but it’s good for morale (and to induce obedience among the locals) to execute a few “spies” from time to time.

January 5, 2015:  In the north (Puntland) government forces spent several days sweeping the mountainous Galgala district (50 kilometers south of the Gulf of Aden) and fought several al Shabaab groups killing 54 and capturing nearly as many of the Islamic terrorists while losing at least five soldiers dead and four wounded. A similar campaign was undertaken in late 2014 and the Islamic terrorists appeared to have fled, but they actually returned to the area and re-established themselves. Since the 1990s the two states that comprise northern Somalia (Puntland and Somaliland) have been having some internal problems. 

Despite that, northern Somalia has been better governed since breaking away from Somalia in the 1990 to form Puntland (2.5 million people) and Somaliland (3.5 million). The other two-thirds of the Somali population to the south, has been in perpetual chaos since 1990. The two states have a festering border dispute that periodically flares into armed clashes. 

Puntland has had al Shabaab groups camping out near the southern border for several years. One group moved north to the Gulf of Aden. The number of al Shabaab men in Puntland has increased to several hundred during 2014 as more of the Islamic terrorists fled the continuing government offensive in the south. In late 2014 Puntland decided to forget about trying to tolerate the al Shabaab presence and went on the offensive. The al Shabaab men in Puntland have few resources and are vulnerable. A growing number of them are returning south and surrendering to the government there but are determined to remain free and threatening.

January 4, 2015: In Mogadishu an al Shabaab suicide car bomber killed five people. The bomber was trying to get close to the headquarters compound of the national intelligence agency, but failed.

January 2, 2015: In the central Somalia town of Baidoa al Shabaab attacked an army base. During the gun battle seven soldiers and three Islamic terrorists were killed before the remaining al Shabaab men fled. Al Shabaab later claimed this attack was in retaliation for an American UAV killing one of their leaders on December 29^th.  Later in the day al Shabaab attacked a food convoy in the same area, killing one soldier before fleeing.

In the north (Mudug, on the Puntland border) an al Shabaab roadside bomb hit a bus, killing a security guard and wounding ten passengers, six of them Kenyan teachers working at a local high school. Al Shabaab is hostile to secular education. In Mogadishu a businessman died when a bomb under his car seat went off. This last attack may have been a criminal gang seeking to extort money although sometimes al Shabaab does that as well. In Somalia bandits and angry tribal militias have long used to terror tactics to get their way.

January 1, 2015: Just across the border in Kenya al Shabaab ambushed an army truck and wounded three soldiers before fleeing.

December 31, 2014: The United States revealed that it had killed al Shabaab intelligence chief Tahlil Abdishakur in a UAV missile attack on December 29th.

December 29, 2014: an American UAV missile attack 320 kilometers west of Mogadishu killed several al Shabaab men.

December 27, 2014: In the southwest (Gedo) much wanted (for a $3 million reward) al Shabaab  leader Zakariya Ismail Ahmed Hersi surrendered to Somali troops. Hersi was one of seven al Shabaab leaders the Americans offered a total of $33 million in rewards (for death or capture) in 2012. 

It is believed Hersi surrendered to save himself from because of the violent factional infighting inside the al Shabaab leadership. This has been going on since the Americans killed al Shabaab supreme leader Ahmed Godane in September 2014. 

After that there was a noticeable decline in al Shabaab morale and an increase in desertions. Not only disillusioned gunmen but a growing number of leaders. This began with some mid-level leaders but spread as al Shabaab personnel realized that Godane’s replacement was a fellow with no reputation and few followers. 

Godane was an old-school Islamic terrorist who was charismatic and cultivated his reputation. He started out with al Qaeda in Afghanistan during the 1990s. He was the one who shifted al Shabaab from working to take over Somalia to trying to be an international terror operation. 

This strategy was not a success and all al Shabaab was able to do was a few attacks in neighboring countries, mainly Kenya. Ordering more attacks in Kenya was not terribly difficult as there is already an ethnic Somali population there, mainly in the large coastal cities. Then there are over half a million Somali refugees that Kenya hosts in camps near the Somali border. 

Godane took over as head of al Shabaab in 2008 and in 2009 announced he was going international and pledging allegiance to al Qaeda. This caused some violent disagreements within al Shabaab. After killing or driving away dozens of senior dissenters Godane began implementing his new strategy. This “purge” of the leadership ensured that if Godane died there would be no replacements of equal stature available. 

Shortly after the shift in strategy the U.S. offered a $7 million reward for his capture. Since 2009 there have been over a hundred Islamic terrorist attacks in Kenya killing nearly 400 people. 

The worst one was in 2013 when an attack on a shopping center by four al Shabaab gunmen left 67 dead. Al Shabaab concentrated on Kenya after 2011 because Kenyan troops moved into southern Somalia to stop the increasing lawlessness on their side of the border. 

There are still al Shabaab leaders unhappy with the terrorism strategy and al Shabaab has tried, with little success to continue with that strategy even though it is now too weak to resume trying to conquer Somalia. When Kenyan troops captured the port of Kismayo in 2012 and later several smaller port towns al Shabaab lost major sources of income. Secondary sources, from control of market towns in the interior, were lost earlier in 2014. Al Shabaab is now broke and without a strong leader. 

There are still many Somalis who believe Islamic terrorism is the solution to the problems of corruption and poor government, but there is no longer a major organization to join and fight for that ideal (which most Somalis reject). 

Nevertheless al Shabaab still exists and could continue in its diminished form for years, or longer. This may not happen if enough of the senior, experienced leaders leave the organization via surrender, moving to another country or death.

December 25, 2014: Al Shabaab made a daring attack on the heavily guarded AU (African Union) headquarters in Mogadishu. A fierce gun battle left three soldiers and a civilian dead along with five of the attackers. Another three of the attackers were captured. Another ten or so attackers managed to flee when the attack failed.

December 24, 2014: Parliament approved a new prime minister. He succeeded a man who resigned on December 6^th. This is the third prime minister in two years. The other two resigned after losing out in factional fighting, usually over who would be allowed to steal what. The corruption in Somalia is among the worst in the world and despite threats to halt foreign aid, the plundering continues. Actually, many countries have stopped providing aid because so much of it is stolen and the remaining donors seem quite serious about leaving as well. 

With the appointment of a new prime minister there will be more media attention for corruption because some of the deals negotiated by the former prime minister will now be cancelled so the new prime minister can negotiate new terms that ensure his allies get paid. This makes it very difficult for foreigners to do business in Somalia because once a Somali official is bought he does not stay bought, especially if there is a major shift in the national leadership.

December 15, 2014: In central Somalia (Galguduud) al Shabaab entered a town (Wabho) after its Ethiopian garrison departed without much warning. It took several weeks for the government to organize a force to eject the al Shabaab men and again try to create a local security force.

In the southeast (lower Shabelle region) al Shabaab attacked an army base at 3 AM and killed ten soldiers and set two vehicles on fire before retreating.

Source: strategypage.com

SOMALIA: COMMUNIQUÉ OF 53RD EXTRA-ORDINARY SESSION OF THE IGAD COUNCIL OF MINISTERS

The IGAD Council of Ministers held its 53rd Extraordinary Session on Somalia on 10 January 2015 at Hotel SYL in Mogadishu. The Council meeting was officially opened by H.E President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of the Federal Republic of Somalia. H.E Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmake presided over the closing session. The Council meeting was held under the Chairmanship of H.E Dr Tedros Adhanom, the Foreign Minister of the Federal Republic of Ethiopia and the current Chair of the IGAD Council of Ministers.

The Council Meeting was attended by Ministers and Ambassadors from the Republic of Djibouti, H.E Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, the Republic of Kenya, H.E Amb Amina Mohamed, the Federal Republic of Somalia, H.E Abdirahman Duale Beyle, the Republic of Sudan, H.E Kamal Ismail, the Republic of South Sudan, H.E Barnaba Marial Benjamin, the Republic of Uganda, H.E Asuman Kiyingi and the Executive Secretary of IGAD, H.E. Eng. Mahboub Maalim.

The Special Representative of the African Union Commission, the IGAD Special Envoy for Somalia, the United Nations Special Representative of the Secretary General for Somalia, the IGAD International Partners Forum (IPF) Chair and representatives of the European Union also attended the meeting.

H.E President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of the Federal Republic of Somalia welcomed the IGAD Extra-Ordinary Session of the IGAD Council of Ministers noting that this was the first Council meeting to be held in Mogadishu since the collapse of the Somali state. The President highlighted that Somalia is undergoing a fragile transition from a failed state to state in the making and that this period represents the best chance for state building the country has had for decades.

He noted that the FGS is laying the groundwork for its political transition through the realization of its Vision 2016. The President noted with appreciation the role that IGAD members have played in Somalia both in times of peace and stability as well as during the difficult civil strife and today’s state building process. The President concluded his statement by recognizing IGAD member states’ strong commitment to supporting Somalia’s state building and reconciliation process and looked forward to continued support and partnership.

The Council received reports from the Federal Government of Somalia on the implementation of Vision 2016, security and the integration of forces, stabilisation and access to recovered area. The Council was also briefed by the IGAD Special Envoy on the IGAD Office of the Facilitator for Somali Peace and Reconciliation’s engagement in Somalia in line with the priorities agreed in previous IGAD Heads of States and Government decisions.

Recalling the previous decisions of the IGAD Assembly of Heads of State and Government and the Council of Ministers on Somalia:

The Council:

1. Reaffirmed its respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity, political independence, and unity of Somalia

2. Noted with appreciation the efforts made by the Federal Government of Somalia to resolve the recent political crisis within the framework of the mandated federal institutions, congratulated the new Prime Minister H.E Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmake on his appointment and looked forward to a stable political environment between now and
2016.

3. Welcomed the Federal Government of Somalia’s update on the implementation of Vision 2016; the security situation and the integration of forces, stabilisation and access to recovered areas.

4. Commended the progress made on state formation in the Interim Jubaland Administration and Interim South West Administration and looked forward to the establishment of Regional Assemblies in these two interim federal administrations.

5. Urged the Federal Government to rapidly conclude the remaining Central regions, Middle Shabelle and Hiraan state formation processes.

6. Underlined the importance of establishing inclusive Interim Federal Regional Administrations and Assemblies in line with the Provisional Constitution of the Federal Republic of Somalia.

7. Welcomed the 15 November 2014 Memorandum of Understanding between the Federal Government of Somalia and the Interim Jubaland Administration and pledged IGAD’s continued support to the on-going state formation process.

8. Reiterated the ownership of the Federal Government of Somalia in leading and setting the priorities for its stabilisation and reconstruction in an all-inclusive manner.

9. Condemned the recent Al Shabaab attack against the AMISOM Headquarters in Mogadishu and their continued attacks against the civilian population. The Council of Ministers vowed to fight Al-Shabab to the end till lasting peace is maintained in Somalia.

10. Noted with appreciation the continued courage and commitment of AMISOM and Somalia National Security Forces and the recent successful joint operations – Operations Eagle and Indian Ocean.

11. Appealed to AMISOM troops and the Somalia Security Forces to expand their operations and immediately recover the remaining areas controlled by Al Shabaab.

12. Recalled the Federal Government of Somalia’s roadmap on the integration of forces presented at the London Security Event in September 2014.

13. Urged the Federal Government of Somalia to rapidly develop a roadmap and engage with federal states and interim administrations to agree the modalities and timelines for the integration of forces and establishment of Regional Police.

14. Noted the Federal Government of Somalia’s commitment to ensuring an inclusive electoral process in 2016.

15. Encouraged the Federal Government of Somalia to expedite the outstanding legal and administrative processes required to deliver an electoral process within the mandated Constitutional timeline.

16. Welcomed the Federal Government of Somalia’s commitment to adopting a Final Constitution

17. Agreed to provide all necessary technical support to the Federal Government of Somalia and other federal institutions including lessons learned from IGAD member states’ own Constitutional development processes.

18. Recognized the critical role that the IGAD Office of the Facilitator for Somali Peace and National Reconciliation continues to play in supporting the implementation of the Federal Government’s Vision 2016.

19. Welcomed the IGAD Office of the Facilitator for Somali Peace and National Reconciliation Strategic Action Plan 2015 – 2016.

20. Directed the IGAD Office of the Facilitator for Somali Peace and National Reconciliation to strengthen its Mogadishu Liaison Office and to establish in consultation with the FGS its presence in the rest of the country to support the stabilization process in line with Vision 2016.

21. Reaffirmed the strong solidarity among IGAD member states and their commitment to continue supporting Vision 2016 and the key reforms in various priority areas.

22. Expressed appreciation for international partners and organizations that are currently providing financial, material and technical assistance to Somalia and appeals for an increase in the level of support through the Neal Deal Compact Financial architecture- the Somali Development and Reconstruction Fund.

23. Commend the on-going dialogue between FGS and Somaliland and thanked the governments of Djibouti and Turkey for their support to the process.

24. Commend the Government of Djibouti and the opposition for the agreement signed on the 30th of December 2014 on the political dialogue and recognize the return of the opposition MPs to the national assembly of Djibouti.

25. Approved the nomination of Dr. Guleid A. Artan as the director of IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC)

26. IGAD strongly condemns and deplores those seeking to destabilize the security, peace and stability of the country, indeed the state-building of Somalia and the region.

27. Recommend to hold the next IGAD Summit in Mogadishu in 2015.

28. Expresses its appreciation to the Government and the people of Somalia for hosting this Extra-ordinary Session.

Widespread Repression State Terrorism in Ogaden, Ethiopia

by GRAHAM PEEBLES

Ethiopia is being hailed as a shining example of African economic growth. Principle donors and devotees of the International Monetary Fund/World Bank development model (an imposed ideological vision which measures all things in terms of a nations GDP) see the country as an island of potential prosperity and stability within a region of failed states and violent conflict. “Economic performance in recent years has been strong, with economic growth averaging in double-digits since 2004,”states the IMF country report. The economic model (a hybrid of western capitalism and Chinese control) adopted by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) government is a centralised system that denies democracy – consultation and participation in “development plans” is unheard of – ignores and violates human rights.

A willing ally in the “war on terror,” Ethiopia is a strategically convenient base from which the US launches it’s deadly Reaper Drones over Yemen and Somalia, carrying out “targeted assassinations” against perceived threats to “national security” and the ‘American way of life’. 

In exchange perhaps, irresponsible benefactors – Britain, America and the European Union – turn a blind eye and a deaf ear to the human rights abuses being perpetrated throughout the country by the highly repressive dictatorship enthroned in Addis Ababa.

Widespread repression

Whilst there are state-fuelled fires burning in various parts of the country: Oromo, Amhara, Gambella, and the Lower Omo Valley for example. Regions where Genocide Watch (GW) consider “Ethiopia to have already reached Stage 7 (of 8), genocide massacres,” arguably the worst atrocities are taking place within the Ogaden, where GW say the Ethiopian government has “initiated a genocidal campaign against the Ogaden Somali population.”

A harsh region subject to drought and famine where, according to human rights groups such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, as well as first hand accounts, innocent men, women and children are being murdered, raped, imprisoned and brutally tortured by government forces.

The region borders Somalia and is populated largely by ethnic Somalis, many of whom do not regard themselves as Ethiopian at all and see the Ethiopian military operating within the region as an occupying force. The Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) has been engaged in a struggle for independence for the last 22 years. They were elected to power in the 1992 regional elections; however, after they had the democratic gall to propose a referendum on self-determination, the central government under the leadership of the previous Prime-Minister – Meles Zenawi, sent in the military: leading members of the newly elected regional authority and their supporters were executed and arrested and the army installed to control the region. The ONLF, branded terrorists by a government that labels all dissenting individuals and groups with the “T” word, were driven into the bush from where they have been waging armed and diplomatic resistance ever since.

Since 2007, all international media and prying meddlesome humanitarian aid groups have been banned from the area, making it extremely difficult to collect up-to-date information on the situation. The main source of data comes from courageous refugees and defected military men who have found their way to Kenya or Yemen. Most fleeing the region end up in one of the five sites that comprise the sprawling UNHCR-run Dadaab refugee camp in North Eastern Kenya. Established in 1992 to accommodate 100,000 people for 10 years, it is often described as the largest refugee camp in the world and is now home to round 500,000, although manipulated Kenyan government figures are much lower.

Maryama’s story

Maryama arrived in Dadaab with her son and daughter in May 2014 after fleeing her homeland in Ethiopia. She had been the victim of terrible physical and sexual abuse at the hands of the Ethiopian military. Her shocking story echoes the experience of thousands of innocent women – many of whom are no more than children – throughout the affected parts of the Ogaden. I met Maryama in the UNHCR field office of the Dagahaley site in October 2014. She spoke to me of her life in the Ogaden and the violence she had suffered. We sat on the ground in the shade of a UN office building. She spoke with clarity and passion for over an hour, her two-year old son on her lap.

Like many people in the Ogaden, Maryama lived a simple life as a pastoralist. Tending her goats and camels, she moved from place to place with her family. She had never attended school, cannot read or write and knows little or nothing of her country’s politics. Some time in 2012, she was arrested when a large group of armed soldiers from the Ethiopian military descended on her family’s settlement in Dagahmadow in the district of Dagahbuur. “They came to us one day while we were tending to our affairs in our village and they accused us of being supporters of the ONLF as well as having relatives in the ONLF.” The soldiers “called all the village people together and started carrying out acts of persecution. They took anything of value, including property and livestock, by force and burnt down homes in the process. I had just given birth seven days earlier when they came into my home and they asked me why I am inside the house [a small semi-circular wooden structure made from branches and mud] by myself [she was bathing her son at the time]. They saw footsteps near my home, which they followed and concluded that it must have been left by the ONLF” [the prints were in fact made by the military]. “All of us were taken out of our homes and questioned about the ONLF, we all denied any involvement. Our homes were then burnt.”

The solders moved from house-to-house questioning people about the footprints. A young mother, who had given birth the day before and was holding her child, was interrogated, she knew nothing and said so. An elderly woman went to her aid; she was caught by the throat and questioned about the footprints – she knew nothing. They shot her dead. Two men from the village arrived and were immediately questioned. One of the men answered, denying any connection with the ONLF; two soldiers tied his hands together, threw a rope around his neck and pulled on each end until he choked to death. Maryama was ordered to hold the strangled man upright and not allow him to fall to the side. When, exhausted after two hours, she let go of the body she was “arrested with six other girls (including my sister), one of the girls had given birth that day.” On the first night in captivity [in an abandoned village] “she was forced to her feet by two soldiers, one of them kicked her in the stomach – she fell on the floor, keeled over and died on the spot. They also shot my sister in front of us. I watched as she bled to death next to the other girl who had died from the beating.”

Maryama told how after witnessing these atrocities, soldiers put a plastic bag over her head and tied a rope around her throat until she lost consciousness. When she came to, she found herself outside in a deep pit; she was naked and in great pain; she found it difficult to move. Her son was nowhere to be seen. Eight other people were with her, five were dead – one was a cousin, two were neighbours. These people had gone missing 10 days previously; it was assumed they were in prison. She cried hysterically.

After 28 days in the pit, her son was brought to her and they were both taken to prison. She was held captive in Jail Ogaden, in the regional capital Jigjiga, for approximately two and a half years, during which time she was subjected to torture and extreme sexual abuse. There were, she told me, over 1,000 women in the prison. At this point it is perhaps worth stating the obvious: this woman had broken no law, had not been charged with any offence or been granted any of her constitutional or human rights.

Maryama, along with other female prisoners, was routinely tortured by military personnel; stripped naked, they were forced to crawl on their hands and knees across a ground of sharp stones. Their knees would collapse and bleed; if they stopped, they were verbally insulted and beaten with wooden sticks or the butt of a rifle. Another favoured method of torture was to strip the women and take them to the latrines where toilet waste was thrown over them. At the same time they were beaten with sticks, belts and hit with the butt of a rifle. They were not allowed to wash and were forced to sleep covered in this waste.

Maryama, who was around 18 years of age when she was first arrested, was repeatedly raped by groups of soldiers while in prison. They like the women to be young – 15 to 20 – and semi-conscious when raped so the girls cannot resist and the perpetrator cannot be identified; part strangulation with a rope or a blow to the head using the butt of a rifle renders the innocent victim unconscious. Soldiers are told to use the penis as a weapon and are “trained,” defected military men told me, to rape women and how to “break a virgin”; violent demonstrations on teenage girls are given by training officers. They are told to eat hot chillies before going out on patrol, so their semen will burn the women rape victims. A defected divisional commander in the Liyu Police, Dahir, related how during his five years in the force he had witnessed between 1200 and 1500 rapes in the Ogaden.

The creation of a climate of fear amongst the population is the aim of the government and the military; they employ a carefully planned, if crude, methodology to achieve their vile objective. False arrest and detention of men and women, arbitrary assassinations and torture, rape and the destruction of property and livestock make up the arsenal of control and intimidation employed by the EPRDF government.

Unbelievable

The Ethiopian regime maintains that nothing untoward is taking place within the Ogaden region. The military and Liyu police (a renegade paramilitary group), they tell us, are safeguarding civilians against the terrorist organization operating there, namely the ONLF. Soldiers in training are brainwashed to see the population of the region, men, women and children, as enemies of the State. Accounts like Maryama’s are pure fiction, government spokesmen say, and, sorry chaps, the region is unsafe for members of the international media or human rights groups and you cannot enter. And if you do, you will be arrested.

There is indeed terrorism raging throughout large parts of the Ogaden and elsewhere in the country; it is State Terrorism perpetrated by a brutal regime that is guilty of widespread criminality, much of which constitutes crimes against humanity.

Graham Peebles is director of the Create Trust. He can be reached at: graham@thecreatetrust.org