A radical military response to the dramatic terror attack on the Westgate Mall in Nairobi this weekend will play into the hands of the assailants. Using local police and intelligence services to track down those responsible and bring them to court in Kenya will be the best route to follow, says Institute for Security Studies expert Anneli Botha.
Botha,
a senior researcher in the Transnational Threats and International Crimes
Division, says people expect a strong reaction from Kenyan President Uhuru
Kenyatta following the attack by al-Shabaab Islamic militants on Saturday 21
September. The attack has left at least 62 people dead and more than 175
injured. By late Monday, security forces were still trying to free hostages
held by gunmen in the mall.
On
Saturday Kenyatta was quoted in the media as saying Kenya ‘will punish the masterminds
swiftly and painfully’. Botha says it is normal that the public would want to
be reassured. ‘He (Kenyatta) needs to re-establish trust and a sense of
security, but hopefully there will be a rational response from the Kenyan
authorities rather than an emotional one’. Treating the perpetrators as mere
criminals, rather than ‘fighters’ pursuing a particular cause is the best
strategy against terrorists and bringing them to justice will bring closure to
those who have lost their loved ones, she says.
The worst possible scenario would be if ordinary Kenyans turn on
Somalis, blaming them for the spate of attacks that has hit Kenya in the last
two years. ‘Al-Shabaab wants to represent this as a religious conflict. If
there are reprisals against Somalis in Kenya this will only serve to radicalise
some of them and play into the hands of al-Shabaab’, Botha believes.
The Westgate attack is the gravest act of terror on Kenyan soil
since Kenyan forces invaded Somalia in October 2011 to join the other troops of
the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) in combating al-Shabaab. In the
last few months, al-Shabaab has been driven out of key Somali towns like
Mogadishu and Kismayo and has now resorted to guerrilla warfare. At the time of
the Kenyan military offensive in Southern Somalia, al-Shabaab warned of bloody
reprisals against Kenya. Apart from isolated grenade attacks in Nairobi and
churches in the north of the country, mostly blamed on individual Somali
radicals, this is the biggest attack by al-Shabaab so far.
In July 2010 al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the killing
of 74 people who were watching the final match of the soccer World Cup at a bar
in Uganda. The group said it was punishing Uganda for its role in AMISOM. Why
did it take the terror group so long to carry out its threat against Kenya?
Botha believes there might have been other, similar attacks planned but never
carried out. ‘One tends to forget the many plots that might have been uncovered
by Kenyan security forces’.
It would be erroneous to link the Westgate Mall attack to
conflict between radicals and moderates within al-Shabaab says Botha. Analysts
have contended that a radical faction of al-Shabaab has now taken over the
organisation amidst waning support and military losses in Somalia. ‘There has
been infighting but this was between Somalis and foreigners within al-Shabaab
that Moktar Ali Zubeyr, the leader of al-Shabaab, in particular did not trust’.
On Sunday, a list of those
allegedly responsible for the attack was circulating on social media,
containing many foreign names. Botha says that if it is accurate, the list is
indicative of a new trend in al-Shabaab. Somali expatriates were the main
targets when recruiting foreign fighters, but the list of countries the
attackers originate from suggests that al-Shabaab is successful in presenting
the conflict in Somalia as a legitimate jihad. ‘Al-Shabaab’s recruitment and
organisation is not limited to Somalia, it has a much wider strategy’.
Botha believes it will be crucial in the next few days and weeks
to ensure that Kenyan security forces take the lead in the fight against terror
in their country. ‘A lot of assistance will be provided by especially the
United States, Israel, Britain and France (to name a few), but these states
should be encouraged to let Kenya take the lead. What we often see in these
cases is that Western forces take over. They have the equipment and the
training. Kenyan police officials also get a lot of training but rarely get the
opportunity to implement what they’ve learnt. We should accept and recognise
that Kenya has primary jurisdiction in this case’.
The fight against al-Shabaab can never be won militarily says
Botha. The solution to extremism and terrorism in East Africa and elsewhere
lies in a long-term strategy. ‘Many people want to see a quick fix, but we have
to tackle the underlying factors that these groups can use to their advantage.
That calls not only for a police response, but an entire government response’.
Liesl Louw-Vaudran, ISS
Consultant
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