Deadly attacks in the Somali neighborhood of Nairobi, death of the Islamic Figure Makaburi Mombasa ... The news of the Islamic group Al-Shabaab in East Africa, was charged this week. According to Roland Marchal, a researcher at CERI Sciences Po and specialist sub-Saharan conflict, the Kenyan government condones the killing of Islamic leaders, giving grist to the radical Shebab ...
Attack of the Westgate shopping center in Nairobi (Kenya), September 2013 - Photo DR Maria Elena / Youtube
JOL Press: In light of recent events in Kenya, combined with the terrorist episode of Westgate in September 2013, should consider a new confrontation between Kenyan forces and the Shebab, as was the case in 2011?
Roland Marchal: Since the late 2000s, the Shebab recruited, Somalia, many activists from East Africa. These were militarily trained and fought on Somali territory. The Kenyan intervention in 2011 has dramatically changed the situation.
Since then, a series of incidents was fearing the worst. It occurred after a major crisis within the leadership of the organization in June 2013. At the time, management was strengthened by the involvement of Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula. Was observed once a deliberate policy Shebab, whatever its position inside Somalia to export to the countries of South Africa militia that had formed. It was also able to see the change on the websites of the Shebab, which began to provide much more than Somali Swahili literature. The attack of Westgate was the first effect of this change.
The Kenyan government has real problems vis-à-vis its Muslim minority. A wide peaceful dominant, it is not unified and includes people from the coast, the Somali North Eastern and locals trays. One finger of suspicion that a number of religious leaders in suspected links with Al-Shabaab, are executed on the orders of government, although he denies any responsibility.
The current question is this eradication of the most radical Muslim personalities policy will she kill the problem in the bud or poison?
JOL Press: The Islamist leader called Makaburi killed Tuesday in Kenya, he was part of these targets in the Kenyan government?
Roland Marchal: He was killed on the outskirts of Mombasa, Aboud Rogo Mohammed as another Muslim preacher in 2012. Others will surely follow.
Western embassies in the region also share this concern for the management made by Kenya of religious radicalism. According to them, the Government of Kenya feeds radicalization of certain sectors, particularly on the coast. The minority Initially, these Islamists will acquire on the basis of these murders, repressed or never officially reported.
JOL Press: The activism of Islamists and their current influence in East Africa they require sending forces (NATO, EU ...), as the Seleka in Central and Boko Haram in Nigeria?
Roland Marchal: Activists supporters of terrorist methods are extraordinarily minority.Including among Muslim opposition to the coast, which has claims vis-à-vis the Government of Kenya. This opposition does not advocate a priori, violence and radicalization. But the political "left hand" led by Kenya encouraged to use violence. This radicalization of public opinion on the coast is cultivated by the Shebab militia, who are creating the social basis they lacked.
Boko Haram began as a civil movement. It became a military that from the moment its leader, Mohammed Yusuf, was killed in a police station, by agents of the Nigerian state.
The EU does not see this repressive policy of a very good eye, and seen rather as an indirect agent of radicalization, which legitimizes even terrorism, as a response to state violence.
JOL Press: The Kenyan government can not allow a radical Islamization develop on the coast, especially when we know the vital importance of ports in the Kenyan economy ...
Roland Marchal: can not calm the crowds if you do not understand their claims. Groups from the coast just looking to get politically hear what the Kenyan government responds with a denial and an amalgam between protesters and the Shebab.
The error is dangerous, and recalls that committed by the Americans and the Ethiopians in Somalia in the early 2000s. She finally gave credibility to a small radical group has since become the Shebab, while heavily minority in Somali Islamism, non-violent and incomparable with terrorism.
Why Kenya is not he plays his role of State, namely negotiate with certain segments of public opinion that disagrees with them?
JOL Press: The Rise of Islamist radicalization and influence the Shebab do it depends not just the catastrophic state of Somalia (despite the relative stability of Somaliland)?
Roland Marchal: Somaliland is quiet only because this is the Shebab stability and enables it to logistics, funding ... In addition, the relative safety of Somaliland involves considerable efforts Ethiopians, Americans and Brits! For now, this tripartite interest coincides with the Shebab. The day when this is no longer the case, as in Puntland today, secure postcard that you describe in Somaliland will fall away.
As Somalia has not found unity and territorial sovereignty, the actions of the Shebab and the development of its influence can not be contained. In addition, it should avoid providing arguments Shebab in its policy of regional recruitment.
Interview by Roman Lacoste JOL Press
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Roland Marchal is a research fellow at the Centre for International Studies and Research (CERI - Sciences Po) and conflict specialist in Sub-Saharan Africa.
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