Policymakers in many of the
world's hot spots have a common New Year's wish: for unity to usher in
and consolidate political and economic stability.
By
Sara Miller Llana, Staff writer /
December 27, 2012
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Students read Koranic verses at a madrasa, or Koranic school, in Dhusamareeb, central Somalia, December 16.
Feisal Omar/Reuters
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The
international news of any year is a disparate affair, a global chronicle of
courage, calamity, and close calls. The interconnectedness of events is not
always clear.
But
looking ahead to 2013, whether in Syria, South America, or the South China Sea,
policymakers have a common New Year's wish: for unity to usher in and
consolidate political and economic stability.
EUROPE
TURNS TOWARD INTEGRATION
After
another year in the depths of a debt crisis that has tested the viability of
the European Union, leaders made a major step forward at the end of the year:
agreeing to give the European Central Bank oversight of the biggest banks in
the Union.
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Skeptics
dismiss the agreement as a watered-down initiative of common-denominator
compromises and delays. But it paves the way for an eventual banking union, and
caps off a year of expressed commitments to deeper integration.
"The
decision of European heads of state to create a banking union and a fiscal
union still needs to be implemented. But that was a genuine game changer in a
sense," says Jan Techau, director of Carnegie Europe at the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace in Brussels. "It is by no means perfect
and is not seen in action yet; but if this comes, that will create momentum for
more political integration."
IN
AFRICA, A NEW DAWN FOR SOMALIA?
In
Somalia, Al Qaeda was on the run in 2012 after four years in control of the
country's south, pushed out of all of its major urban strongholds by African
Union military offensives.
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Somalia's
Western allies – also its financiers – have begun proclaiming a new dawn.
International commercial flights now land regularly at Mogadishu's refurbished
airport. Investors from the large Somali diaspora are returning home. Aid
workers have ever-greater access to the millions of people still in grave need.
But
analysts are wary. A large number of rank-and-file fighters may have deserted
Al Shabab, but hard-line commanders remain. Many of them, trained in Pakistan
with Al Qaeda, are regrouping in Somalia's north.
"The
Somali government is going to need very quickly to show that it brings
dividends, health, education, road repairs, to the population, or they may well
turn back to supporting Shabab," one Western diplomat focused on Somalia
says in an e-mail. "There is a very narrow window to prove the government
is the better option. Probably less than nine months. The early part of 2013
will be crucial."
Meanwhile,
across the continent in Mali, events moved in the opposite direction in 2012.
An ethnic Taureg rebellion spiraled into a takeover of the north by Islamist
militants, while the army ousted Mali’s democratically elected president.
Malians hope that in 2013 their country can reunite and that democracy will be
restored. If not, Western and African leaders fear Mali could become a failed
state.
Some
Malians say only force can dislodge the Islamists, while others place hope in
dialogue. Meanwhile, worry is growing that ethnic grudges might transform a
possible intervention into a tragedy of unintended consequences.
“Families
affected by crisis may seek vengeance,” says Mohamed Ag Ossad, the director of
Tumast, a Tuareg cultural center in Bamako. “The state should take things in
hand before there’s an ethnic war.”
This
month soldiers loyal to coup leader Captain Amadou Sanogo removed Mali’s
interim prime minister – a brazen show of force that the US said endangered
national dialogue and delayed a government recapture of the north, according to
a statement on Dec. 11. Members of the security forces are also accused of
beating, detaining, and killing critics of the army, as well as Tuareg and Arab
men, said a December 20 report by Human Rights Watch.
For
Moussa Mara, an accountant and district mayor in Bamako, such problems
underline the need to reestablish democratic rule by holding presidential
elections that were derailed by this year’s coup. “Crisis can be an opportunity
for our country,” he says. “If we’re intelligent.”
MIDDLE
EAST: TO THE VICTORS, MORE DIVISIONS?
As
pressure has mounted against Syria's embattled president, Bashar al-Assad, many
are starting to ask what will come of the opposition Free Syrian Army should
the regime fall.
A
number of Syria experts warn that without a plan to disarm opposition groups,
they risk destabilizing the country.
"What
do you do with the men with guns? The men who don't have jobs.... We've seen
this in Libya, and we also saw it in Iraq," says Aram Nerguizian, a Syria
expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The
vast majority of Free Syrian Army units in Syria say they will put down their
weapons and let democracy determine their future after Mr. Assad. Still, a
number of observers worry that there is a possibility armed groups may want an
undue stake in Syria's government, and the challenge for 2013 will be to
incorporate them into civilian life.
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In
Israel and the Palestinian territories, positions on both sides hardened as the
window for a two-state solution rapidly closed. Israel moved further to the
right heading into January elections, while Palestinians became more assertive
with a perceived victory against Israel in the November Gaza conflict and an
overwhelming vote recognizing Palestine as a state at the United Nations.
Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly invited the Palestinians to
return to the negotiating table without preconditions at any time and indicated
that the Palestinians’ failure to do so shows they are not serious about peace.
But Palestinians say they cannot afford to negotiate while Israel steadily
expands settlements in the West Bank. Nearly 10 percent of Israeli Jews now
live over the 1967 borders, which the recent UN resolution recognized as the
basis for a future Palestinian state.
In
2013, Palestinians want to see an end to settlement expansion before it is too
late to implement a two-state solution. “We are witnessing today a very crucial
moment … a moment of irreversibility,” says Mustapha Barghouthi, a former
Palestinian presidential candidate and democracy activist.
Israelis,
for their part, seek Palestinian recognition of Israel as a Jewish state, as
well as assurances that a peace deal will mark the end to the conflict and not
merely a stepping stone to regaining all of historic Palestine.
EAST
ASIA'S SYMBIOTIC TIES
In
a year when China made several neighbors nervous over its territorial claims,
Beijing's most alarming spat was with Japan over a handful of uninhabited
islands known in China as the Diaoyu and in Japan as the Senkaku. Although a
war over the issue is highly unlikely, it has come to be seen as not altogether
impossible, as tensions have risen in recent months.
But
it is the economic fallout already under way that analysts say the two must
address immediately. "China is Japan's biggest market, and Japan is a very
important source for China to learn new science and technology," says Zhou
Weihong, a Japan expert at Beijing Foreign Studies University. If the second-largest
economy in the world [China] and the third-largest [Japan] are not getting
along, "that is bad news for the rest of the world," Professor Zhou
says. "There are big enough motives for both sides to want to improve
their relationship."
THE
REACH OF CHáVEZ
The
biggest story of 2012 in Venezuela was the reelection of President Hugo Chávez
in October, despite significant gains made by the opposition. But now, facing
illness, Mr. Chávez might not be able to stand for his Jan. 10 inauguration –
and may have to step down.
Venezuela
is holding its breath – as is the region that sees Chávez as a beacon of the
left, some of whose members, like Cuba, depend heavily on his largess. Within
the oil-rich country, political tensions will flare in 2013 until a new leader
is selected, while daily problems such as crime and inflation mount, says
Caracas-based political analyst Jose Vicente Carrasquero. "Over time, we
will adjust under a new government," he says, "and surely after this
process of transition we will discover a new way of doing politics in
Venezuela, something that we need."
*
Also contributing: staff writers Peter Ford in Beijing and Christa Case Bryant
in Jerusalem; correspondents John Thorne in Mali, Tom Peter in Aleppo, Syria,
and Mike Pflanz in Somalia.
