REVIEW AND ANALYSIS
On Wednesday, February 5 celebrate a talk under the Master in International Security and Strategic Studies from the University of Granada, in which some members of GESI were lucky to learn and exchange views with the Cavalry Colonel D. Alberto Gonzalez Revuelta , Diploma in Staff and former student of the Master.
Colonel González Revuelta, who works regularly with this group, recently returned from Somalia , where he has been stationed for six months as part of the European Union Military Training Mission Somalia . The objective of the discussion was therefore closer to all present to the situation we are living in the African country, and to analyze its causes and study the possible evolution of a state, considered as failed, which currently accounts for the attention and efforts of much of the international community. All thanks to the experience and clarity of view of someone like the Colonel, who has been working in the field and has real knowledge of the state of the Somali conflict.
The content of the talk was extremely interesting and all attendees had the opportunity to exchange views and wanted to ask how natural and relaxed way. Despite the complexity of the conflict, Colonel explanations were precise and illuminating, and therefore from my top GESI in this post some of the ideas that came to collation.
Features Somalia
Our guest opened the talk with a brief introduction about the characteristics, evolution and current situation of Somalia, to put us all in perspective and guide the discussion.
Between geographical, geo-strategic and demographic characteristics of the country should be in addition to its important location in the Horn of Africa, highlighting the fact that there is no official population census due to the lack of status that has been plunged Somalia during more than two decades. The estimate is that in this country live between 7 and 9 million people of Somali ethnicity and Sunni Muslim. Moreover, extreme poverty and conflict has led a process of diaspora in which they're drawn a million and a half people who have had to emigrate to other neighboring countries such as Ethiopia and Kenya or primarily Anglo-Saxon countries such as the United Kingdom, Canada and the U.S., as well as a number of displaced persons inside the country close to another million and a half. The money that is forwarded based exiles of the livelihoods of many Somali families and, at present, the country's political and ruling class is composed of returnees who have been trained abroad.
The determinant for understanding society and the Somali political factor are the clans . In Somalia, there are 6 major clans, based on family ties, which are distributed more or less differentiated form throughout the entire country. The two clans are located in central Somalia are the most involved in the conflict and border clans enjoy support from those countries with which limited, although Islam is present in all decisions. At present, the percentage of demographic representation enjoyed by each clan has been respected in shaping the Somali Federal Government (GFS) and the Parliament, so that these institutions reflect in its membership the actual representativeness of each clan. During the 20 year absence of state in Somalia, clans vied for power and trying to provide basic services in their respective territories. Now, the presence of a common custom in Al Shabab, enables enemy clans remain united in government.
Current Political Situation
As for the political situation, Colonel differentiated the internal and external factors that determine the current state of conflict. As principal internal element stresses the GFS , which has replaced the interim government set up by the UN. The latter was formed by the families to pressure UN threatened to withdraw support was offering the country if an agreement was reached to establish a provisional government. Achieved an agreement, not without difficulty, the current GFS aims to continue the path begun by the previous, underpinning the State and providing basic services. While weakness is manifest and warlords still retain much power. Al Shabab is undermining its legitimacy and even piracy problem that initially attracted international attention, appears to be controlled, is still far from being completely eradicated. The pirates are adapting to the situation and send supply ships to the shores of India to operate in that area.
As external factors , it is worth noting the high number of international actors in Somalia and the prevailing lack of coordination between them. Stands out above all the role performedAMISOM in its fight against Al Shabab, but each and every one of the countries of the African Union mission have their own interests in the country. There are also a large number of UN agencies related to the coordination of which leaves much to be desired. The European Union carries out a comprehensive approach when attempting to resolve the situation in the region. Therefore, in Somalia has launched a number of initiatives, both civilian and military, in support of GFS. In addition, there are European countries like Italy or the UK, former metropolitan area, maintaining bilateral relations outside the community effort. On the other hand, Turkey is making a strong commitment in the country as a model of intervention in African politics, seeing that their integration into the European Union does not just occur.United States does not act directly but through private development companies that follow their dictates.
The territorial situation of Somalia is also notable for its uniqueness and highlights the conflict. During these two decades of absence of the state, the northern regions of Somaliland and Puntland have been the only ones to have enjoyed some control and stability. However,Somaliland unilaterally declared its independence was not recognized Mogadishu, even though no state has recognized it, maintains very good relations with Britain. Meanwhile,Puntland is considered autonomous though it recognizes the government in Mogadishu, the same happens with Jubaland in the south. In addition, there Puntland untapped oil fields being studied by British companies who negotiate an exploitation concession with the government. AMISOM forces are not authorized by the resolution of the UN to act in Puntland or Somaliland, which has its involvement in counterterrorism efforts, since it is not ruled out that Al Shabab moved its sanctuary to the zone
Al Shabab
Particular mention must be made to the Islamic terrorist group Al Shabab, which could be analyzed from its evolution to its current state, its enclaves or type of attacks they use. The international community, which came to the Horn of Africa, among other reasons, to combat piracy, now stay at home to combat Islamist extremism and believes that defeating Al Shabab is a prerequisite for the normalization of the Somali state requirement.
The connection with Al Qaeda Al Shabab has always been evident, but in 2012 its final integration occurs, which has meant the arrival of fighters from the outside as well as an important tactical and logistical support. At the time, there is a risk that Somalia becomes a terrorist stronghold if not finish with the group, which would mean that many members of the group were sent to other countries to fight in jihad.
Al Qaeda also provides financial support to Al Shabab. The Somali group financed mostly used with the exploitation of charcoal through the port of Kismayo, which was sold in Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates despite the existing trade embargo. However, where AMISOM forces recover that port in 2012, Al Shabab passes financed aid received from Al Qaeda through Yemen. Other methods are used for income extortion business from Mogadishu or the fees they charge to NGOs working in their areas of control. With the latter method are also achieved money, a form of explicit international recognition that they control a specific area and provide protection therein.
The enclaves where the jihadists retain control match rural interior of the country, as AMISOM has successfully unleashed the most important cities, including the capital. However, Al Shabab maintains cells is these urban centers and therefore retains the ability to act on them whenever you want. Specifically in Mogadishu, despite being released and concentrate all forces and national and international institutions, an average of 18 attacks per weekwhose objectives focus on senior government and military, in addition to entrepreneurs who have not satisfied the amount claimed in extortion. The type of attack is typically used to commit to launch hand grenades, mortar fire, targeted attacks or other more complex in a suicide attack followed by a second attack with machine gun or car bomb occurs when you are making the medical care. The institutions are concentrated in three villas within the capital, with its system of protection. The government is in Villa Somalia, which has 5 security circles. Al Shabab has only been able to enter the third moment.
In terms of composition , Al Shabab integrates members from all Somali clans, with more homogeneity than the government itself. His current focus of international jihad, achieved after the "Blow Godane" makes it possible to offer a common goal beyond the interests of each clan. However, this same feature can cause the group to lose root and support in the population if it continues radicalized and attacking people indiscriminately, despite having other incentives to recruit members, such as higher wages offered by the organization compared to their fighters with offering the Somali National Army. In addition, the campaign with drones used against them leads to Al Shabab extreme social control and prohibit communication systems, which takes him away from the population.
Current situation of conflict and possible evolution
Currently, the progress achieved by the Somali government and the international community, led by AMISOM, are extremely fragile. Despite having succeeded in driving al-Shabab from the main urban centers and have shown its superiority in the approach to a conventional battle, the Islamist group is considering a strategy of asymmetric conflict difficult to combat.AMISOM has reached the limit of its capabilities and the Somali National Army has a tough road ahead and modernization preparation for taking over his responsibilities .
To achieve this goal, and running a training process based on the international aid that aims to address the difficult task of consolidating an army that has more than 20 years without exist . This has meant that, at present, one of the most worrying gaps within the Somali Army is the lack of middle management as there are for general hand, Soviet training, and other troops, whose men are good fighters but ill soldiers. In addition, the case so far, the government had a budget to pay only 11,000 soldiers, members of Sector 1 was protecting Mogadishu. The remaining sectors, four more, were funded by local militias and warlords allied with the government, so the loyalty of these soldiers was to the local chiefs. As one of the challenges to achieve this year is that the GFS pay full wages Army to procure support and promote a vision of security that takes into account the whole nation.
Meanwhile, while on one hand it is in the process of improving the training and gear of the Somali army, the other United Nations approved Resolution No. 2124 increasing the forces of AMISOM by 4,400 troops , in addition to providing mission African Union airmobile capacity by helicopter units which increase the speed to move their forces in the fight against Al Shabab. So far, this fight was done in bouts of limited nature and redeemed forces, mainly company type units. For its part, the UN agency (UNSOA) providing logistical support to AMISOM, will also perform at the logistical support of those articles nonlethal character (such as fuel and food) to Somali Army.
Conclusions
As seen, the encounter left essential to understand the Somali conflict and to guide us for the future of the same lessons. However, there are three ideas that Colonel González Revuelta greatly stressed. First, that the favorable situation that currently prevails and has been hard-earned is reversible, and can even occur crack return to instability and chaos , which has recently been targeted by the Secretary General himself United Nations, Ban Ki-moon.
Second, the large number of actors operating in Somalia, with particular interests and often opposing, makes very difficult the coordination and organization necessary to seat the state project and consolidate progress. In this sense, the Colonel made a comparison with the case of Mali in which, besides the different idiosyncrasies of the country itself, differs mostly undisputed leadership there offers France, which does not occur in the case of Somalia.
Third and finally, our guest noted the urgent need to end terrorism by Al Shabab as a prerequisite for achieving stability for the consolidation of the state in Somalia. However, in a country where the division between clans and the conflict of interest is so obvious, is always the question of what happens when an end to all that binds, for now, all parties, which is fighting a common enemy: Al Shabab.
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