“Is it time to weigh up options”
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| Daahir Sheikh (Daahireeto) |
The recent round of talks between Somali Federal
Government and “Somaliland” in Istanbul and its subsequent communique shows
that there is serious bargain between the two negotiating parts. contrary to
the common perception that SFG will stick to its position of preserving unity
of Somalia, it seems that the SFG’s negotiating team went further and made some
remarkable concessions that they could easily avoid.
It seems that the talks have moved to a very critical
stage in which the sides will be negotiating their future relations, in other
words the unity of Somalia is on the table .One can argue that the SFG is
unnecessarily pushed to a path which can pave the way for secession, yet the
SFG have not lost the initiative and can steer the talks to its advantage if it
chooses so.
The deal had came just days before SFG’s new cabinet was
approved by the Parliament and Puntland’s power transfer.It seems that
”Somaliland” was keen to strike a framework deal before those two important
changes happen,developments that will undoubtedly affect future talks, at the
end,the two Abdiwelis who came to power in the SFG ( PM Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed)
and in Puntland ( President Abdiweli Gaas) are different from the former weak
SFG PM Abdi Farah Shirdon “Saacid”, and former “Somaliland” friendly Puntland
president Abdirahman Farole, and Although “Somaliland” may be pleased to have
scored few positive points for their secessionist campaign in the recent
Istanbul talks, they should not be elusive and think that Somalia’s hard fought
unity will easily come to end.
SFG’s amateurish talks strategy
The indirectly selected SFG in Mogadishu is
constitutionally obligated to preserve the unity and the sovereignty of
Somalia. It has no legal or political power to let some of Somalia’s
territories to break away, nevertheless it can represent and speak for Somalia
provided it upholds the constitution’s guidelines. the way the SFG is conducting
the Turkey talks has risen questions and concerns among Somalis: Although there
is no break through in the talks itself, the wording of the last communique is
alarming and the SFG seems to be soft on “Somaliland” claims. One can ask
himself if the SFG is diplomatically outmaneuvered, but that is unlikely for
some reasons:
Firstly: the SFG has proved to be tough negotiator in
Addis Ababa Jubbaland talks in which it staunchly rejected the wording of “Jubbaland”
and “president” opting for ”Jubba” and ” the leader” for Ahmed Madobe’s
post,which indicates the that SFG is not short of experienced negotiators and
diplomats. Secondly: there is no mounting international pressure on SFG to
recognize “Somaliland” as a separate country. the international community has
no huge strategic interest in dividing Somalia except one or two regional
countries, even the SFG can make naught of the Somaliland claims,both legally
and politically.
For example the SFG can easily convince the world that it
is now focusing on pacifying South and Central Somalia, where the international
community would be more than happy to see Al shabaab defeated. an equally
important looming 2016 elections will need more focus.and the international
community who are deeply invested in Somalia, would like to see their efforts
bear fruit. If some SFG’s international partners would like to see Turkey talks
succeed quickly, they have no option but to accept the reality that
“Somaliland” issue has been dragging for 23 years and SFG can not invent
miracles to solve this impasse swiftly.
Turkey who may want to score diplomatic success after its
Syria and Egypt failures should be reminded that “Somaliland” question is just
like its Kurdistan secessionist region dilemma. moreover Turkish PM Erdogan has
enough problems at home, and relations with the West are at their lowest
level.Certainly Turkey is not in a position to dictate the outcome of this
talks
The SFG can enhnace its case by conditioning “Somalilnad”
to let SFG northern officials to visit their children and wives/husbands in
Hargeisa, Buruo, Borama and else where, scrap its draconian laws against the
unionists and allow them to exercise their full political rights in
“Somaliland” itself, If Hargeisa rebuffs such demands, then The SFG can tell
the world that it should not be pressured to conside to a ”North Korea like”
regime which even denies basic human rights of its own people, the”‘ family
reunion” It can also rise the question of Sool and Sanaag regions, which points
that ”Somaliland” project is not inclusive enough to represent the whole people
of pre-independence British Somaliland.
Thirdly: the SFG should not be naive enough to
underestimate the power and the determination of the landslide majority of its
people who are committed to preserve and defend the union, and it should not
feel free handed to sign deals that can resonate new conflicts specially in the
north. Justifiably SFG has thousand reasons not to rush in this tricky
process
Then the questions arise, Why SFG is unnecessarily considering to “Somaliland” demands, is it outmaneuvered diplomatically and
pressured by the international community, which seems unlikely, does it think
that such concessions are tactical and decorative, which is questionable, , do
SFG leaders feel secured if they breach the constitution and abandon their
moral obligations,does the SFG want to marginalize Puntland and embrace
”Somaliland”, which sounds immature anti-unionist policy ( since Puntland
stands for the unity of Somalia while “Somaliland” is campaigning to break away
from the rest of the country) Only SFG officials can answer these questions.
A recent leaked secret voice record of president Hassan
Sheikh’s special spokesman and close aide, indicates that at least some of SFG
officails may be more inclined to pleasing “Somaliland” than preserving the
unity of Somalia, In the record A/rahman Yariisow, who is apparently victim of
“Somaliland” delegates or friends in Isanbul, consider that referendum may be
an option to solve the deadlock. this voice record which seems genuine , shaws
that ”Somaliland” is not hesitating to use diplomatically offending steps
against SFG officials.
Puntland’s missing role
Puntland has constitutional right to be part of any
national or international negotiations that may affect it or its interest,
Somalia’s provincial constitution stipulates this clearly, articles 53 reads as
fallows: in the spirit of inter-governmental cooperation the Federal Government
shall consult the Federal Member States on negotiations relating to foreign
aid, trade, treaties, or other major issues related to international
agreements.
b. Where
negotiations particularly affect Federal Member State interests, the
negotiating delegation of the Federal Government shall be supplemented by
representatives of the Federal Member States governments
The former “Somaliland” friendly president of Puntland
Abdirahman Farole alllowed that his state’s constitutional right be denied.
critics say that Farole is half “Somaliland” and should not be blamed why he
let the negotiations go with out Puntland represented. Farole is also partly
responsible for the unnecessary alienation of SSC people who are integaral to
this debate.
Now Farole gone ,the newly elected president of Puntland
Abdiwli Gaas has tough job to do: Firstly, he should rebalance his political,
diplomatic, and even (if need be) military postures. Keeping in mind that
Puntland has been heavily entangled in the troubled South and Central Somalia
in the last decade, he should be thinking to emulate his countryman Barrack
Obama, who rebalanced US involvement from Middle East to the Pacific Asia where
the great geopolitical game with rising China lies. Abdiweli Gaas should
somehow pivot from the south to the north, thus rebalancing his resources and
commitment between the two,
I am not suggesting that Gaas should make great strategic
error like that of the late Adolf Hitler, who made the self-defeating strategic
mistake when he invaded Stalin’s Soviet Union while fighting with the West.
Here the situation is diffirent The south and SFG are not currently belligerent
and they should not be in the future since both SFG and Puntland are supposed
principle allies (unionists) against secessionist “Somaliland”; A political
and military maneuver by Puntland will give SFG itself a pressure point and
negotiating card against ”Somaliland”
Secondly : Mr.Gaas should mobilize all avialible
resources at his disposal to avoid the mounting strategic threat of losing SSC
regions to “Somaliland”, a dilemma that Farole’s term of office has
exasperated. he should and must not allow that borders of Puntland and Somalia
should be pushed to Yoocada, which is just 6Km north of Garowe, the capital of
Puntland,and Qaw, which is nearly 12KM away from Bosaso, the commercial hub of
Puntland. he should not allow nearly 1.5 million SSC brethrens to their demise
by becoming second class citizens in a future break away “Somaliland” either.
On top of that the unity of Somalia and energy resources of SSC should and must
not go easily without fight.
The break up of Somalia will be great geopolitical
disaster,given the volatile region it lies. If Valdamir Putin thinks that the
desolation of the Soviet Union was greatest geopolitical catastrophe in history
,at least for the Russians, the division of post- independence Somalia will
possibly be the end of Somali nationhood,as probably the per-indepedence south
Somalia will disintegrate,which is more catastrophic than Puitn’s assertion.
Puntland should revamp its strategy toward SSC regions
and ”Somaliland” itself.Simplifying things, taking the question of unity or
secession for granted, underestimating the opponents capabilities, and power
preserving is not an option.
As a PHD holder from Harvard university,experienced former
PM of Somalia, well aware of the international affairs and dynamics,arguably
proven competent, and a ”dynamic figure”‘ as late Al jazeera english’s David
Forest put it, Mr Gaas should and must be up to the job and spare no effort to
prevent any attempts to break up both Puntland and Somalia, he can prove wrong
his skeptics that he is not strong leader.
There is Somali saying which goes ” daadku inta uusan ku
soo gaarin ayaa la iska moosaa” which translates, “‘the flood should be
barricaded before it reaches you” which means you should not wait until threat
comes in front of your door, that is way governments use preemptive diplomatic,
political or military steps.
Puntland’s new leaders should mobilize their
political,diplomatic and military resources and weigh up their options.
Firstly; the new leadership of Puntland should convene a reconciliation
conference for SSC regions to enhance Puntland unity and cohesion, which is
what president Gaas put at the top of his priorities list . Secondly: Puntland
should vigorously insist that it must be represented in the Turkey talks as per
the constitution. In case SFG and Puntland restore relations, Turkey talks
should be the first issues to be revised.. there is possibility that
“Somaliland”‘ may complain about Puntland’s inclusion of the talks, but that
would be major political and diplomatic flopping by the side of Somaliland,
since Puntland is part and parcel of SFG, and Somaliland should not be
dictating the other side’s delegation members.
Thirdly Puntland should revamp its regional and
international relations, adopting relatively assertive foreign policy.the new
leaders must articulate their case well in the diplomatic corridors, they
should clearly tell allies and partners that their strategic interests should
be taken to account. the perception that Ethiopia may pressure Puntland not to
defend its to territory should be deleted from Puntland’s dictionary, the
strategic decisions should be nationally debated and taken. Notably the
Ethiopians could not pressure ”Somaliland” to stay away from Laascaanood in
2007, or to stop their political and logistical support to the now defunct IUC,
who were fighting Ethiopian troops in Mogadishu (2006-2009) Puntland new
leaders, while keeping good relations with Ethiopia, should not be fallowing
the footsteps of the former president Farole, who some analysts suggest, was
pliable for outside pressure
Fourthly: If SFG rejects the demands of Puntland and
proceeds the current trend of the talks, then Puntland should have plan “B” to
scuttle what would be perceived as an “‘exclusively SFG-Somaliland hiden
ajenda” thus playing its last cards to change the equation.
The two Alis “Khaatumo” initiative
At first glance, one can argue that ”Khaatumo” is direct
product of Puntland’s inaction of “Somaliland” incursions in SSC,but two years
on since ”Khaatumo’s” inception, the initiative is far from reaching its goals
of ”libreting” Sool and ”uniting” SSC people. Although we can not rule out
former PM Ali Khalif Galayr and former IMF official Ali Isse Abdi as loose
politicians, the reality is that “‘Khaatumo” initiative is not working well, at
end the “‘division” of SSC people continues, and Sool is yet to be ”librated”.
Some of “Khaatumo’s” critics dismiss it as ”minus
Puntland plus Somaliland project”, however we cannot suggest that two top
experienced politicians are conspiring their own people to become disenfranchised
minority in a future “‘SNM” dominated “Somaliland”
Some political analysts think that, given the
“Somaliland”claim and presence in Sool, and economic, strategic and political
situation of the area, “‘Khaatumo” will have to make miracles to be viable
state,specially in a hostile neighborhood One can argue, unless “Khaatumo”
wages a Taliban developed ”fourth generation warfare” type of resistance to
drive “‘Somaliland”‘ forces out of Sool region, the initiative is doomed to
fail.
Ironically, there has been attempts to promote a notion
that Puntland and “Somaliland” are equal enemies of SSC people and they should
be treated as such. but what some miss is that SSC people and other Puntlanders
have common goal of preserving and defending unity of Somalia, in other words
they have the same principles, while “Somaliland” is secessionist project , thus
forming unionists versus secessionists.
In a similar way , there has recently been a notion
promoted by some Sunni Arabs and their Western packers, that Iran should be
number one enemy of the Arabs, and,interestingly Isreal should be an ally of
the Arabs to fend off Iranian interference of Arab affairs.according to the
promoters of this notion, Iran and Israel are equal enemies at the best case
.Of course, Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu should be pleased
to see this U-turn position by some Arabs, and even he repeatedly portrays himself as the “‘savior”‘ of the Middle east from what he calls an “Iranian
nuclear bomb”
A Somali saying goes as ( Labo bahal Biriirow hadday kaa
isugu biirto hadba kii bahnimo kuu xigaa laysu buriyaaye), which means, if your
are attacked by two monsters, you should be leaning to the close relative one.
I am not suggesting here that SSC people should take sides on clan grounds, my
point is the principle of Somali unity which both SSC and other Puntland share,
should unite them.
Arguably the best option for “Khaatumo” is to participate
the Puntland proposed reconciliation conference, and table their case by
insisting on “‘ either you drive Somaliland forces out of Sool or you should
not claim us as part of Puntland” this would be wise demand by “Khaatimo” that
Puntland will have no choice, but to gear up for military confrontation with
Somaliland, since it can not and should not let SSC people down,thus taking the
tough long-awaited decision
Conclusion
If SFG and Puntland fail to put their perceived cynicism
aside and cooperate together in preserving and defending unity of Somalia, this
will possibly give the secessionist “Somaliland” a chance to exploit the
situation The new governments in Mugadishu and Garowe should narrow their differences, not only in Turkey talks, but also other areas such as
constitutional ”fraud” claims,federalization of the country and the
establishment of all Somalia represented national army
by Daahir Sheikh is Somalia political analyst
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