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The surrender of Somalia's veteran
militant Islamist, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, signals that his faction has lost
the battle for control of the al-Shabab group to hardliners determined to step
up their military campaign to establish an Islamic state in the East African
country.
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The surrender of Somalia's veteran
militant Islamist, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, signals that his faction has lost
the battle for control of the al-Shabab group to hardliners determined to step
up their military campaign to establish an Islamic state in the East African
country.
The 78 year old - whose trademark is
a goatish beard, coloured with red henna - was forced to give himself up to
government forces last weekend, fuelling speculation that his life was under
threat from the young Islamists who once revered him as their elder statesman,
but have now rallied behind his bitter rival, Afghan-trained Ahmed Abdi Godane.
Somali analyst Hassan Abukar, writing in the African Arguments blog of the UK-based Royal African
Society, said Mr Aweys' surrender came after Mr Godane's fighters had
staged a "coup" in al-Shabab, killing the group's co-founder Ibrahim
al-Afghani, who also fought in Afghanistan and was a close ally of late
al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.
Al-Shabab
At A Glance
- "The Youth" in Arabic
- Formed as a radical offshoot of the Union of Islamic Courts, which controlled Mogadishu, in 2006
- Previously ran much of southern Somalia
- Lost some popular support by banning Western aid agencies during 2011 famine
- Estimated to have 7,000 to 9,000 fighters
- Led Ahmed Abdi Godane, who trained in Afghanistan
- Ibrahim al-Afghani, an explosives expert who also fought in Afghanistan, was a co-founder
“Al-Shabab is highly secretive, and Aweys is intelligence
material for the government”
Yusuf Garaad Ex-BBC Somali Service editor
Al-Shabab's former spokesman Mukhtar Robow has also been
forced to flee, reportedly to the southern Bay and Bakol region where his
Rahanweyn clan is based.
"In a single stroke, Godane, the emir of al-Shabab
who goes by the nom de guerre of 'Abu Zubeir', managed to re-align the radical
group's leadership dynamics and further consolidated his power by getting rid
of his major detractors," Mr Abukar said.
For Kenya-based Somali analyst Rashid Abdi, Mr Godane's
victory suggests that al-Shabab will intensify its military campaign to
establish an Islamic state in Somalia.
"It will want to show that it remains a cohesive
force, and my fear is that there will be an escalation of conflict, with more
bombings. It is still a potent military force," he told the BBC.
Al-Shabab has carried out a spate of hit-and-run attacks
and bombings, especially in the capital, Mogadishu, after the African Union
force launched an offensive in 2011 to help the government recapture territory.
In the most recent attack on 19 June, at least 15 people,
including four foreigners, were killed in an assault on a heavily guarded UN
office in Mogadishu.
"The group has been successful in attacking soft
targets, such as the UN compound, perhaps to distract its fighters from
debilitating fragmentation among its leaders," said Mr Abukar.
"It is unlikely that this terror group will vanish
from the political scene in Somalia in the near future. Godane and his
followers will continue to exploit the government's inability to exert its
control outside Mogadishu."
Former BBC Somali Service editor Yusuf Garaad Omar says
Mr Aweys' surrender is a political coup for the government, and its regional
and Western allies.
"Al-Shabab is highly secretive, and he is
intelligence material for the government. They will expect him to download
information about its leadership structure, training and funding sources. In
that sense, his surrender is a blow to al-Shabab," he told the BBC.
A security officer in the regime of autocratic ruler Siad
Barre who was overthrown in 1991, Mr Aweys had a reputation of being a Somali
and Islamic nationalist, in contrast to Mr Godane's image as a global jihadist
who led al-Shabab into an alliance with al-Qaeda last year.
"Aweys is the father of the jihadist ideology in
Somalia, and supported suicide bombings. But he was a bit averse to foreign
influence, and more perceptive to public opinion because his goal was to
achieve power," Mr Abdi told the BBC.
However, Mr Garaad argues that Mr Aweys was forced to
join al-Shabab about three years ago as it had the upper hand over his Hizbul
Islam militia.
"Aweys relied more on local resources and was
conquered by al-Shabab, which had foreign links in terms of training and
know-how," he says.
Row over al-Qaeda
His feud with Mr Godane - who refused to anoint him as
"spiritual leader" - boiled over last year when Mr Aweys used a
Friday religious sermon to accuse al-Shabab's top brass, as Somali journalist Abdi Aynte wrote at the time, of
"monopolising jihad, globalising the Somali conflict, assassinating
innocent Somalis and, more damningly, acting in a manner unbecoming of upright
jihadists".
Mr Aynte said Mr Aweys - who had been designated a
terrorist by the US and UN in 2001 - preferred a "primarily nationalist
ideology" in Somalia.
"For more than three decades, Aweys defined
Somalia's narrative of political Islam, earning him both friends and foes
within the Islamic movements... He argued that Islam is the only answer for
Somalia and can be the only uniting factor against tribalism and
factionalism," he said.
As for the younger generation led by Mr Godane, they are
simply "caught up in the cult of martyrdom" fuelled by al-Qaeda, says
Mr Abdi.
"They don't care about public opinion. They want to
establish an Islamic state through military conquest, and they love martyrdom
more than power," he told the BBC.
However, it is far from clear that Mr Godane has the
backing of al-Qaeda.
"Two months ago, Ibrahim al-Afghani wrote an open
letter to Ayman al-Zawahiri, the leader of al-Qaeda, in which he criticised
Godane for targeting foreign jihadists, imprisoning them in secret detention
centres in the areas the terror group controls, and even killing them," Mr
Abukar says.
The foreign jihadists who joined al-Shabab - including US
citizen Omar Hammami known as "al-Amriki", who reportedly
survived an assassination attempt by Godane loyalists - have become
increasingly disillusioned with it, he says.
"Moreover, the influx of foreign jihadists into
Somalia has, for all practical purposes, decreased and further eroded the place
of that country in the annals of global jihad."
For Mr Aynte the in-fighting suggests that al-Shabab is
on the path of "self-immolation".
"In the final analysis, the split within al-Shabab
is yet another chapter in Somalia's extraordinarily complex political system,
where alliances shift constantly. The break-up presents another dilemma for the
international community, as it attempts to help Somalia resuscitate itself from
20 years of state collapse," he added.
The fate of Mr Aweys is unclear. He could be charged with
war crimes or he could end up joining a peace process, focusing on winning over
youth from al-Shabab.
But the more likely scenario is that he will negotiate
his retirement, Mr Abdi told the BBC.
"He is still seen as a father figure by certain
Somalis, and the government may decide to let him fade away. He is old now, and
probably thinking of his retirement, but there are many Somalis who won't
forgive him for what he did to their country."
Life and times of Hassan Dahir Aweys
- Served in the regime of ex-ruler Siad Barre
- Formed Somalia's first Islamist militia, Ittahad al-Islamiyyah, in 1990s
- On a US terror list since 2001
- Briefly captured the capital, Mogadishu, in 2006 under banner of Union of Islamic Courts
- Merged his Hizbul Islam militia with al-Shabab in 2010
- Surrendered to government forces in July 2013
