Change is in the air in Eritrea, a highly authoritarian
state, but any political transition will require internal political inclusion
and channels for external dialogue if it is
Concerned Western partners, neighbours and other
governments with special relations with Asmara need urgently to pay more
attention to the small, isolated country that has remained mobilised on a war
footing since a ceasefire ended its conflict with Ethiopia in 2000 and
undertake planning and proactive measures to help avert internal chaos and
wider regional troubles. Eritrea: Scenarios for Future Transition, the
latest report from the International Crisis Group, examines the regime’s
vulnerabilities, maps out six possible forms an eventual transition may take
and identifies the main risks and opportunities.
“While the mounting number of incidents suggests that
President Isaias Afwerki’s government is vulnerable, the country would face
numerous institutional, socio-economic and geopolitical obstacles during and
after any transition”, says Cedric Barnes, Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa Project
Director. “A careful assessment of these is urgently needed to help avoid a
violent power struggle that could prove dangerous for the Horn of Africa and
potentially – as Eritrea is a littoral state – for the Red Sea region”.
It is difficult to predict what an eventually post-Isaias
Eritrea will look like: after and in spite of 21 years of forceful
nation-building, fault lines, especially of ethnicity, region and religion, are
still there. The opposition is mainly in the diaspora, divided and mostly out
of touch with both potential domestic constituencies and the young people who
have been fleeing in large numbers for years and who crowd refugee camps. Since
the state lacks any institutional mechanisms for peaceful transfer of power or
even a clearly anointed successor, instability is to be expected, with the army
the likely arbiter of who will rule next.
To reduce the risk of instability in Eritrea and its
neighbourhood, a broad coalition of international actors should take
precautionary moves, including immediate and decisive efforts to promote
dialogue on avoidance of internal power struggles and mediation of a peaceful
transition. This could lead to opening of political space and normalisation,
both domestically and internationally. UN sanctions imposed on the regime for
support of Al-Shabaab in Somalia and other destabilising activities need to be
kept under active review. The European Union (EU) and U.S. should work with
those, such as Qatar and South Africa, that maintain close relations with the leadership.
Member states of the regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)
should welcome Eritrea back and encourage normalisation of relations.
Specific attention should be paid to new, younger leaders
emerging outside Eritrea, including in refugee camps. Attention should also be
paid to the socio-economic and psychological side effects of the crisis. When a
transition begins, the security sector will need to be reformed, and projects
will have to be created simultaneously that focus on reintegrating those who
fled their country.
“There is an urgent need to pursue stability in Eritrea.
Events in the last twelve months indicate growing discontent inside its tightly
controlled regime, as well as deepening political and social divisions”, says
Comfort Ero, Crisis Group’s Africa Program Director. “If instability
intensifies, that would be bad not just for Eritreans, who have suffered
enough, but for the broader region”
