NAIROBI, 21 March 2013 (IRIN) - The UN Security Council earlier this
month relaxed a long-standing arms embargo on Somalia, allowing the
government to purchase light weapons for 12 months.
“On the arms embargo, originally imposed in 1992, the Council decided
that it would not apply to arms or equipment sold or supplied solely for
the development of the government’s security forces, but it kept its
restrictions in place on heavy weapons, such as surface-to-air
missiles,”
UN Security Council Resolution 2093, adopted on 6 March, said.
The government - or member states delivering weapons - are required to
notify the Council’s sanctions committee of any such deliveries.
Below, IRIN has put together a briefing on the implications of easing the embargo.
Why ease the embargo?
For more than two decades after the fall of Siyad Barre in 1991, Somalia
experienced widespread gun violence in the form of clan conflict and,
more recently, conflict involving the African Union Mission in Somalia
(AMISOM)-supported government and Islamist insurgent group Al-Shabab.
According to the UN Monitoring Group for Somalia and Eritrea, between
May 2004 and July 2011, some 445 instances of arms transfers or
seizures, involving almost 50,000
small arms and light weapons,
took place in Somalia. Also in violation of the embargo, arms continued
to flow into Somalia by land, air and sea from countries like Eritrea,
Ethiopia and Yemen.
But following more than a year of relative stability in Mogadishu and
many other parts of south-central Somalia, some analysts expressed a
desire to see the UN relax the embargo. In February, the
Heritage Institute for Policy Studies (HIPS),
a Mogadishu-based think tank, urged the US to “lobby for a gradual end
to the arms embargo on Somalia… so that the Federal Government can take a
qualitative monopoly on the instruments of legitimate violence”.
Easing the arms embargo would, according to HIPS director Abdi Aynte,
“gradually give the Somali National Army [SNA] the qualitative edge over
their principal adversaries, such as Al-Shabab”.
“At the moment, the SNA is battling Al-Shabab using the same [old]
AK47s. They'd have to change, especially if we want the SNA to
ultimately defeat Al-Shabab,” he told IRIN. “It would allow the Somali
government to gradually monopolize the use of legitimate force.
Currently, all actors are armed to the teeth, and that won't change for
some time, but it could be reversed over time.”
In a statement, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud welcomed the decision to
lift the embargo as a reflection of “a new and steadily improving
political situation in Somalia”.
“Thousands of Somali National Army recruits, trained by our
international partners, have returned to Somalia but have been unable to
perform their security duties effectively alongside AMISOM troops
because the government was unable to access the equipment they needed,”
he added. “Lifting the arms embargo was the missing element, and now the
gap has been filled.”
“At the moment, the Somali National Army is battling Al-Shabab using the
same [old] AK47s. They'd have to change, especially if we want the SNA
to ultimately defeat Al-Shabab”
Abdullahi Boru Halakhe, a Horn of Africa analyst, said the resolution
made necessary compromises between the need for legitimate weapons and
the fear of illegal ones. “The way the resolution was crafted struck a
balance between the concerns of those who feel the country is still
[too] awash with weapons for the embargo to be lifted, and those who
consider the government needs to be able to purchase weapons to provide
security for its people,” he said.
What are the risks?
Halakhe warned, however, that “even the best laid plans can go awry”.
“The immediate danger is if the weapons find their way in the hands of
groups like Al-Shabab through corrupt government officials/security
officers,” which could lead to “an incredibly difficult situation, where
these weapons could fuel further conflict”.
Two days before the embargo was lifted, rights group
Amnesty International
called on the UN Security Council to keep the embargo in place, and
even strengthen it, citing the possibility of groups like Al-Shabab
becoming better armed.
“For several years, the arms embargo on Somalia has been continuously
violated, with arms supplied to armed groups on all sides of the
conflict. The flow of arms to Somalia has fuelled serious human rights
abuses,” Gemma Davies, Amnesty International’s Somalia researcher, said
in a statement that stressed the risks of “removing existing mechanisms
of transparency and accountability”.
“Without adequate safeguards, arms transfers may expose Somali civilians
to even greater risk and worsen the humanitarian situation,” she added.
Countries within the region are wary of the easing of the embargo,
fearing that it could, if managed poorly, allow illegal weapons to flow
out of Somalia and into the region, where they could be used to create
instability.
“As a sovereign state, Somalia is entitled to strengthen its security
and defence. The present situation in Somalia, however, is still
fragile… The institutions that control and manage small arms are not yet
stable, with the AU still the factor holding the peace and return to
stability. Already, there are so many illegal guns within Somalia and
these are yet to be properly accounted for, managed and effectively
controlled,” said Joe Burua, of Uganda’s National Focal Point on Small
Arms.
“Letting more arms into Somalia will only give credence to the illegal
ones [as] trade commodities, basically supporting illegal trade in
firearms as security tightens.”
He noted that while experts believe few guns have so far left Somalia
for other countries in the region, “the fear is, like the Cold War era
of the West and Eastern bloc countries, when the war is concluded,
unscrupulous characters will seize the opportunity to engage in illegal
trade in firearms”.
What safeguards are needed?
According to Burua, if the lifting of the embargo is to work, Somalia’s
government will need to, among other things: strengthen internal
measures for the safe storage of firearms; sensitize armed communities
about the dangers of possessing illegal firearms; conduct a robust
demobilization and disarmament programme; enact an amnesty for armed
communities that voluntarily surrender their firearms; strengthen the
capacity of the law enforcement agencies to manage firearms; strengthen
laws and regulations on firearms; and partner with neighbouring states
to strengthen border points and curtail illegal cross-border transfers.
“At this current juncture during the problematic early stages of the
Somali Federal Government, the initial issue before armament should be
country-wide disarmament,” Kainan Abdullahi Mohamed said in a recent
opinion piece for the Somali new service,
Garoowe Online. “Firstly and foremost in the capital, where guns are found as easily as any other product such as soap and groceries.”
He further argued that there would be a need to harmonize and reform the army if the easing of the embargo was to work.
Al Jazeera correspondent Peter Greste notes in a 21 March
blog that beyond guns, there is a need for ongoing negotiations on an
Arms Trade Treaty to impose strict controls on not just weapons, but ammunition as well.
“As it stands, the treaty places trade in weapons themselves under
encouragingly tight controls,” he said. “But the treaty shunts
ammunition and spare parts to an annex with far loser restrictions. If
those restrictions continue to allow a black market to flourish, the
treaty fails, especially in places like Somalia.”
Amnesty International has also made the case for
stronger controls on ammunition.
Somalia has attempted disarmament several times in the past. The Islamic
Courts Union’s disarmament efforts in 2006 were met with stiff
resistance by warlords. In 2007, the prime minister of the Transitional
Federal Government extended an amnesty to Islamists and established
collection points for arms around Mogadishu. This, too, was met with
resistance.
There is also the issue of how much of a role AMISOM should play in
supporting the purchase or monitoring of weapons. HIPS’s Aynte says that
while AMISOM should not, in the long term, be an intermediary in the
procurement of weapons, the Somali government needs to first put in
place “verifiable mechanisms for purchasing, accounting and
accountability before going on an arms shopping spree”.
“There are groups and communities in Somalia and abroad that are
legitimately concerned about the capacity of the SNA to buy arms… The
government must allay these fears by reforming the SNF and making it
more competent, credible, inclusive and, above all, accountable to a
strong and transparent judicial system,” he added.
President Mohamud’s statement made it clear that the Somali army would
continue to work with AMISOM to execute its duties. The SNA and the
country’s police force are undergoing a process of reform with the
support of AMISOM, the UN and neighbouring countries like Uganda.
Halakhe, the analyst, said, “I hope besides providing security, the AU
forces will able to monitor that these weapons do not find their way
into the hands of Al-Shabab and other similar destabilizing forces… We
need to move slowly.”
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