Wednesday, February 27, 2013

WATCH LIVE: "Al-Qaeda in the United States: A Complete Analysis of Terrorism Offences"

WATCH LIVE at 10:00 AM ESTFollow @CSIS for live updates

"Al-Qaeda in the United States:  A Complete Analysis of Terrorism Offences"
Featuring:

General Michael Hayden (Ret.)
Former Director

Central Intelligence Agency and National Security Agency

and
Robin Simcox
Publication Author and Research Fellow
Henry Jackson Society


Moderated By:

Stephanie Sanok
Acting Director
CSIS Homeland Security and Counterterrorism Program


Tuesday, February 26, 2013
10:00-11:00AM

CSIS 1800 K. St. NW, Washington, DC 20006
B1 Conference Center

In recent years, several individuals from a wide variety of backgrounds have attempted to attack the United States on behalf of al-Qaeda. These individuals have defied easy categorization, creating challenges for intelligence, law enforcement, and other agencies tasked with countering their activities. However, with the publication of "Al-Qaeda in the United States", the Henry Jackson Society seeks to provide new insights into the al-Qaeda movement and its U.S. operations by rigorously analyzing those involved or affiliated with the organization. Please join CSIS and the Henry Jackson Society on February 26 for an on-the-record discussion of this new report and the nature of al-Qaeda-related terrorism in the United States.

Somalia: British Ambassador Meets With Puntland Leader

Garowe, Somalia — British Ambassador to Somalia, Matt Baugh led a delegation of officials to meet with Puntland President Abdirahman Mohamed Farole in Garowe on Tuesday, Garowe Online reports.

After landing at Garowe International airport, Ambassador Baugh led a delegation that included Head of UK's Department for International Development (DFID) for Somalia Joanna Reid and met with Puntland President Farole and Vice President Abdisamad Ali Shire, Minister of Security Khalif Isse Mudan, Minister of Education Abdi Farah Juha and Minister of Planning and International Cooperation Daud Mohamed Omar.

After the ambassador met with President Farole the two officials gave a brief press statement on their meeting on Tuesday.

President Farole said that they had discussed the ongoing democratization process in Puntland and how the British government supports the process.

"We discussed a number of issues including development projects in Puntland, security, the democratization process which the British government has given full support for and issues regarding all of Somalia," said President Farole.

Ambassador Baugh firstly thanked the Puntland government for their welcome and issued his condolences to the family of Sheikh Abdiqadir - who was recently assassinated in Garowe - he also said that the British government would give its support in counter-terrorism projects in Puntland.

"I want to express the British government's sincerest wishes to help Puntland combat those [security] threats and address them together," said Ambassador Baugh.

He also said that the British government supports the democratization process in Puntland so that it can achieve, "a credible, fair and safe election".

Earlier this month, in a press release from the DFID pledged to help build "a new democratic government and federal parliament," as well as deliver development aid.

Somalia: Al-Shabaab Kills Two Officials in Gedo

Suspected al-Shabaab members shot and killed two government officials in Busar, a small town in Somalia's Gedo region, UN-funded Radio Bar-Kulan reported.

Heavily armed militants shot dead Busar deputy administration officer Osman Abdinoor Abdirahman and head of social affairs Mohamed Hussein Ibrahim inside a restaurant Monday night (February 25th), according to regional army spokesman Colonel Warfa Sheikh Adan.

The Busar police boss was also at the restaurant during the attack but managed to escape unhurt, Adan said, adding that government troops now pursuing the assailants who escaped after the incident.

Media Discover the Limits of Freedom in Somalia

Somali Journalists protest on Jan. 27, 2013 against the arrest of their colleague Abdiaziz Abdinur Ibrahim who was arrested for the story of a woman who alleged that she was gang-raped by Somali government forces. Credit: Abdurrahman Warsameh/IPS
Media advocates in Somalia worry that a recent case against a journalists who exposed the story of a gang rape involving members of the national security forces will serve as a deterrent to journalists countrywide.

Journalist Abdiaziz Abdinur Ibrahim was arrested on Jan. 10 for publishing the story of a 27-year-old woman who alleged that she was gang-raped by five Somali security forces in August 2012.

Ibrahim was detained for one month without charges, but was later charged along with the victim for “insulting state security forces”. Earlier this month a regional court in Mogadishu found both accused guilty and sentenced them to a year in prison. They case went into appeal, with a new verdict now being expected on Wednesday Feb. 27 by the Mogadishu Appeals Court.

This will make journalists avoid venturing into areas that will lead them to risky stories such as this one, Abdulahi Elmi, a media advocate in Mogadishu, told IPS. And that has huge implications for the already-dismal press freedom situation in the country. It will definitely negatively affect and worsen the situation for local media workers.

The case sparked an international outcry, with international rights organisation Human Rights Watch (HRW) calling for the government to drop its case against both, which HRW deemed "groundless".

The National Union of Somali Journalists called the conviction “a serious setback's for press freedom.

But Somali government officials have repeatedly distanced themselves from the case, saying it was a judicial matter and insisting on the independence of the country's judiciary.

Following Ibrahim's arrest, however, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said that his administration would not tolerate negative coverage from the local press.

Local journalists who support Ibrahim told IPS that they would now think twice before interviewing people critical of the government or reporting on stories involving abuse by security forces.

"It was a clear warning for us," a local journalist told IPS. He asked for anonymity because he feared reprisals.

"Our friend was treated badly just because he dared to listen to a woman who said she suffered injustice at the hands of those who were supposed to protect her.
Abdiaziz Abdinur Ibrahim was arrested for publishing the story of a 27-year-old woman who alleged she was gang raped by five Somali security forces in August 2012. Credit: Abdurrahman Warsameh/IPS - 
Ibrahim is not the only journalist who has been arrested in connection with the case. Daud Abdi Daud was held by government police for nearly a week without charge for protesting in court on Feb. 5 against Ibrahim’s sentence. He was eventually released on bail on Feb. 12.

Daud told IPS that he was not allowed to see a lawyer and was not officially charged for any crime, although officials had told him that he was being held for “discipline”.

“The police took me to custody after I said journalists should be able to interview any woman, including the first lady, if she allowed it,” Daud said in Mogadishu after he was released on bail.

Abdi Aynte, director of the Heritage Institute for Policy Studies, an independent think-tank in Mogadishu, said the case showed that there was a need to improve media freedom here.

“In comparison to some of Somalia’s neighbouring countries, like Ethiopia or Eritrea, I think Somalia enjoys a considerable amount of freedom in terms of what people can say and in terms of what groups can say. But there is no doubt that the government could do more to improve that condition,” said Anyte.

According to the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), Eritrea leads the world in imposing censorship on media. In 2012 the CPJ ranked Somalia as the second-worst country where journalists are murdered regularly and the killers go free.

A total of 49 journalists were killed since 1992 in Somalia, CPJ figures show, with 12 being killed in the last year alone. No one has been arrested in connection of the killings, according to the watchdog organisation.

But Anyte said that the government's handling of the case had cost it a considerable amount of credibility.

Both the government and the journalists have capacity issues. One can question the investigatory capacity and prosecutorial capacity of the government. One can also question the capacity of local journalists in reporting and verifying information,” said Aynte.

In what is widely perceived as a diversion amidst increasing public scrutiny, the Somali government on Feb 3. announced the formation of an independent Human Rights Taskforce. The goal of the taskforce is to “investigate the broadest range of human rights abuses, including the organised killing of journalists and sexual violence against women.

Somalia: Five European Ambassadors Present Credentials to Somalia

Five European ambassadors jointly presented their credentials to Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in Mogadishu on Tuesday (February 26th), according to a news release from the Delegation of the European Union to Kenya.

Ambassadors Margit Hellwig-Bötte of Germany, Etienne de Poncins of France, Javier Herrera García-Canturri of Spain, Bart Ouvry of Belgium and Sofie From-Emmesberger of Finland become their countries' ambassadors to Somalia for the first time in more than two decades.

"With the accreditation of five EU member states' ambassadors to Somalia, the EU expresses its genuine commitment to the people of Somalia and underlines its confidence in the new political dispensation," the statement said. "The EU's partnership with Somalia is based upon respect for Somali ownership and responsibility."

The EU said it supports the Somali government's efforts in building a federal state, establishing security and the rule of law, improving its financial management system, and living peacefully with its neighbours

US official signals continued support of Mali, African nations

By Grace Jean

The principal officer in charge of the US Department of State's Bureau for African Affairs said on 22 February that he expects an increase in government support to help restore peace and democracy in troubled nations, including Mali, that have fallen prey to Islamist radicals.

"We expect we will respond appropriately to threats that emerge in Africa," Ambassador Johnnie Carson, assistant secretary of state for the Bureau of African Affairs, told reporters during a roundtable discussion in Washington. "We will continue to increase our support and assistance to beat that threat."

For the last month, the United States has been providing logistical support to French troops in Mali, where Islamist radicals have been infiltrating the northern region of the country after the democratically elected president was ousted by a military coup in March 2012.

The French intervened with military forces on 11 January to free Mali's northern towns that had been captured by the Islamist militants, part of a group called Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). The French and West African troops recaptured all three major cities in northern Mali and have also pushed AQIM out of small towns and back up into mountains, said Carson.

ARTICLE 19 STATEMENT: Myanmar: Press bill falls far short of international law and would leave press open to abuse

Despite promises of reform, a new press bill presented in parliament retains a vagueness that will leave the print media open to abuse from the government and other powerful actors.

The draft Press Law Bill (2013) says that the media should become “a fourth pillar” of democracy “watching and guiding the other three”. The media will not however become a fourth pillar under this draft because it undermines their role and overly restricts their work.

Governments often abuse regulation of the press to restrict rather than protect the right to freedom of expression and a free media. Journalists and the press should not be subject under such press regulations to greater restrictions on their right to express themselves compared to ordinary people.

As such, most advanced democracies have abolished any regulation of the press except by general laws. Experiences from other newly democratising states in Eastern Europe for example show that even young democracies do not need a press law.

The bill has both positive and negative aspects. On the positive side, it repeals draconian laws and replaces them with provisions that proclaim human rights. On the negative side it falls substantially below international freedom of expression standards.
Problems in the Press Law Bill

1. Who is a journalist?

Even though the bill refers to the rights and duties of journalists, it is unclear who would be protected under the rights described, and whether for example it includes freelancers or stringers.

Recommendation: Protection should be provided to all journalists working in the country and extended to media workers in general, such as editors, publishers, photographers. A journalist should be defined broadly as anyone who is regularly and professionally engaged in the collection and dissemination of information for the public via any means of mass communication.

2. Reporting regulated by the state

The bill sets out the duties of journalists and aims to regulate issues such as reporting on court cases, children and women, or on poor and disabled people. These duties should not be imposed by the state, which might amount to an interference with freedom of expression that is unnecessary in a democratic society

Recommendation: The press should be encouraged to self-regulate rather than have rules imposed by the state. Journalists and press outlets should be free to adopt and voluntarily follow professional standards of ethics.

3. Overbroad restrictions on content

International law has a clear and non-expandable list of acceptable restrictions to freedom of expression. The restriction in the bill making sure that publications “benefit national and public interest” and that prohibit “provocative expression, “false propaganda” are not among such permissible restrictions..

Recommendation: Only those clear restrictions covered under Article 19(3) of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights should be listed in the bill.

4. Freedom of information is limited

The bill limits access to information held by government by excluding “matters of public and national security” and “secret records”. International standards are clear however that all information should be provided to journalists or members of the public, unless the government department can show that they are hiding the information to protect a legitimate aim as listed in law, the disclosure must threaten to cause substantial harm to that aim, and the harm to the aim must be greater than the public interest in having the information.

Recommendation: The bill should not exclude “matters of public and national security” and “secret records” from being accessible, and the government should create a right to information law.

5. Press Council is not independent

The bill preserves a statutory Press Council under the control of the president, therefore placing control and penalties for the press in the hands of the government. The president decides who will be on the council, and as there is no provision covering funding or competence, will presumably decide what it will do, leaving it wide open to abuse.

Recommendation: A press council should be created by the press itself through a process of consultations with participation from all stakeholders. If such a council is mandated by the state in statute, it should include a clear guarantee of independence from government influence.

6. Press outlets require permission or licences

The bill violates international law by requiring press outlets to obtain permission or licences in order to operate. A government that decides who can run a newspaper, magazine or news website in effect controls the media.

Recommendation: No licencing or permissions should exist beyond general laws for businesses such as tax.

7. Foreign publications are still subject to prior-censorship

The bill gives powers to a “respective ministry” to inspect and decide whether imported foreign publications are “capable of threatening the national security and public interest”. By its nature this amounts to prior censorship.

Recommendation: Only courts should have powers to order seizure of publications, be they imported or produced in Burma.
Positive features in the Press Law Bill

A. It repeals draconian laws

The bill will repeal Myanmar’s infamously draconian Printers and Publishers Registration Law (1962) which requires prior-censorship in all forms of media.

B. Journalists are empowered and protected

By proclaiming specific rights, the bill recognises the need for protection of journalists and the press. As the draconian Printers and Publishers Registration Law (1962) does not use the language of rights, it gives no opportunities for journalists and the press to make claims in defence of their interests.

C. Right to freedom of expression proclaimed

Even though Myanmar sits alongside those countries such as North Korea that have not ratified any of the international human rights treaties, the bill proclaims a number of rights aiming at free expression; for example the right to information or the right to express opinions and convictions. In compliance with international law the bill sets out that these rights belong to everyone as opposed to journalists only.

D. Introduction of arbitration for disputes with the press

The bill creates an extrajudicial dispute resolution mechanism by empowering the Press Council to examine in the first instance complaints against the press. Arbitration outside courts provides speediness and reduces cost in many states worldwide, therefore strengthening media freedom. By requiring victims of press violations to go to the Press Council before a court, the bill protects journalists and the press from expensive and intimidating court proceedings.

E. Introduction of the protection of journalists’ sources and the right to accreditations

The bill strengthens the status of journalists by recognising the right to accreditation and the right not to reveal journalists’ sources, as is the norm in most states worldwide.

Next steps

ARTICLE 19 will be carrying out a detailed legal analysis of the draft bill, including specific recommendations that we will put to the government of Myanmar and civil society in the country.

Elephant seals help scientists solve climate mystery

The animals, fitted with head sensors, have helped to provide data from the Antarctic's most inaccessible depths
A Southern Ocean elephant seal wears a sensor on its head as it swims in the Southern Ocean, Antarctica. Photograph: Iain Field/Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC/Reuters
Elephant seals wearing head sensors and swimming deep beneath Antarctic ice have helped scientists better understand how the ocean's coldest, deepest waters are formed, providing vital clues to understanding its role in the world's climate.

The tagged seals, along with sophisticated satellite data and moorings in ocean canyons, all played a role in providing data from the extreme Antarctic environment, where observations are very rare and ships could not go, said researchers at the Antarctic Climate & Ecosystem CRC in Tasmania.

Scientists have long known of the existence of "Antarctic bottom water," a dense, deep layer of water near the ocean floor that has a significant impact on the movement of the world's oceans.

Three areas where this water is formed were known of, and the existence of a fourth suspected for decades, but the area was far too inaccessible, until now, thanks to the seals.

"The seals went to an area of the coastline that no ship was ever going to get to," said Guy Williams, ACE CRC sea ice specialist and co-author of the study.

"This is a particular form of Antarctic water called Antarctic bottom water production, one of the engines that drives ocean circulation," he told Reuters. "What we've done is found another piston in that engine."

Southern Ocean elephant seals are the largest of all seals, with males growing up to six meters long and weighing up to 4,000kg.

Twenty of the seals were deployed from Davis Station in east Antarctica in 2011 with a sensor, weighing about 100 to 200 grams, on their heads. Each of the sensors had a small satellite relay which transmitted data on a daily basis during the five to 10 minute intervals when the seals surfaced.

"We get four dives worth of data a day but they're actually doing up to 60 dives," he said.

"The elephant seals … went to the very source and found this very cold, very saline dense water in the middle of winter beneath a polynya, which is what we call an ice factory around the coast of Antarctica," Williams added.

Previous studies have shown that there are 50-year-long trends in the properties of the Antarctic bottom water, and Williams said the latest study will help better assess those changes, perhaps providing clues for climate change modeling.

"Several of the seals foraged on the continental slope as far down as 1,800 metres, punching through into a layer of this dense water cascading down the abyss," he said in a statement. "They gave us very rare and valuable wintertime measurements of this process."

source:  Reuters

Global warming and airflow changes 'caused US and EU heatwaves'


Air systems that encircle planet can slow to standstill, as greenhouse gas heats Arctic and causes temperature imbalance

Heatwave in 2003 in France. Photograph: Dominique Faget AFP/Getty
Global warming may have caused extreme events such as a 2011 drought in the United States and a 2003 heatwave in Europe by slowing vast, wave-like weather flows in the northern hemisphere, scientists said on Tuesday.

The study of meandering air systems that encircle the planet adds to understanding of extremes that have killed thousands of people and driven up food prices in the past decade.

Such planetary airflows, which suck warm air from the tropics when they swing north and draw cold air from the Arctic when they swing south, seem to be have slowed more often in recent summers and left some regions sweltering, they said.

"During several recent extreme weather events these planetary waves almost freeze in their tracks for weeks," wrote Vladimir Petoukhov, lead author of the study at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.

"So instead of bringing in cool air after having brought warm air in before, the heat just stays," he said in a statement of the findings in the US journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

A difference in temperatures between the Arctic and areas to the south is usually the main driver of the wave flows, which typically stretch 2,500km- 4,000km (1,550-2,500 miles) from crest to crest.

But a build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, blamed on human activities led by use of fossil fuels, is heating the Arctic faster than other regions and slowing the mechanism that drives the waves, the study suggested.

Weather extremes in the past decade include a European heatwave in 2003 that may have killed 70,000 people, a Russian heatwave and flooding in Pakistan in 2010 and a 2011 heatwave in the United States, the authors added.

The authors wrote that they proposed "a common mechanism" for the generation of waves linked to climate change.

Past studies have linked such extremes to global warming but did not identify an underlying mechanism, said Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute and a co-author, who called the findings "quite a breakthrough," he wrote. The scientists added that the 32-year-period studied was too short to predict future climate change and that natural variations in the climate had not been ruled out completely as a cause.

The study only considered the northern part of the globe, in summertime. Petoukhov led another study in 2010 suggesting that cold snaps in some recent winters in Europe were linked to low amounts of ice in the Arctic Ocean.

Almost 200 governments have agreed to work out by the end of 2015 a deal to combat rising global greenhouse gas emissions that will enter into force from 2020.

Drones, Africa and the Decline of American Power


The Counter-Terrorism Diversion
by NORMAN POLLACK

The announcement (Feb. 22) that the US has opened a drone base in Niger has been deliberately couched in abstract counterterrorism terms: unarmed Predator drones for reconnaissance purposes in order to track Al Qaeda and, never to be missed, “its affiliates.”  Who could possibly object to such worthwhile activity?  The New York Times, in its news story, didn’t seem to.  And if polls are any indication, the general effort, especially in that far-off nebula called Africa, where the baddies, whom we’ve got on the run from Pakistan and Afghanistan, hang out, has Americans’ rock-solid support.

We know the bit about “unarmed” and “reconnaissance” is not meant seriously, a Brennan-Obama wink as it were, because the same introductory ploy was used in Djibouti, where a very large US drone base was established on those terms, and quickly transformed to the only real purpose of such an enterprise, i.e., targeted assassination.  Djibouti was carefully selected because of the wide swath of territory it covered, and because the government was amenable to US terms, including a status-of-forces agreement, just as now in Niger, in which US personnel are exempted from local jurisdiction in the commission of crimes.  An ideal situation, in which we can roll up our sleeves and go after the Enemy, which in the Djibouti case meant al-Awlaki and his son, both US citizens.

What of course is not being said, about Niger, Djibouti, and the whole counterterrorism effort is that, as a result, Africa is “in play” more than previously for American imperialist activities, which before, could be taken for granted as normalized, almost routine, exploitation of raw-materials production, but now, with China’s penetration, and far more sophisticated relationships to the peoples affected, such as building soccer fields and promoting education, requires of the US a catching-up phase to hold its own.  As with imperialism, whether or not historically attached to colonialism, the so-called “natives” are a mere incidental factor in the execution of policy, yet in this case, not only they but also counterterrorism is incidental to US purposes.  Even imperialism per se begins to blend into a wider framework, which, let’s call, the geopolitical strategy for a) maintaining the security of capitalism in, and chief architect of, the world system, and b) buttressing America’s claims to lead and work advantageously in that system.

We are in Africa whether or not al Qaeda and “its affiliates” are present, because Africa, in what has become an increasingly multipolar world, is both ripe for pickings in its own right and a pivotal sector in the political-economic rivalries of the Great Powers.  Indeed, the fight is also becoming ideological.  Just as we feared Russian penetration outside its immediate sphere of influence during the Cold War, now it is China, in a Second Cold War, or perhaps the First continued under new conditions, which we must at all costs prevent from invading our sphere of influence or testing our military strength.  Bless al Qaeda, it enables us to prosecute our warlike activities against China!  To paraphrase Sartre’s seminal essay on anti-Semitism, anti-Semitism is about everything except Jews; here, counterterrorism is about everything but terrorists; and if we didn’t have al Qaeda and “its affiliates” to contend with, we would have had to invent them, as part of our desperate attempt to remain the unilateral dominant power on the global stage.

The strain, however, is showing.  The blanket use of assassination, coming directly from the personal authorization, down to specific targets, of His Majesty POTUS  (and the Svengali-like Brennan always at his ear on the Terror Tuesday swing-dings off the Situation Room), is itself admission enough to the world that America, like Rome before it, is beginning its decline, placing it—except for its huge nuclear arsenal, which partly accounts for the deference still shown the US by the world community—as one among the many others in the family of nations, a position ordinarily satisfying to a country, but not to one which is accustomed to having its own way and, in addition, depends on the huge defense-cum-military budget to ward off economic stagnation and unemployment (even here, not succeeding all that well).  This airstrip in Niger is more than the opening of a new front against terrorists.  It is a straw in the wind, embodying the doctrine of permanent war, the necessity for creating an active regional presence throughout the globe, a forward line of bases to ensure the stabilization of areas intended for political-commercial penetration—and, if possible, gain the jump on China.

To falter in this regard is to risk falling victim to the psychological version of the domino theory:  If the US loses in Africa (incidentally, Niger and Djibouti nicely complemented each other for controlling the East and West), this will encourage its (nonofficial) enemies from gaining ground in other areas of US interest.  The unraveling of international power must be stopped.  And behind China, what of Brazil, what of the Third World erupting and industrializing on its own terms?  What of other regions, once drone warfare and assassination have deprived America of its moral coloring, would these countries still show deference to America?  And in fighting this rearguard historical battle, the US can enter the realm of still greater urgency and its soulmate, denial, by fleeing from the major questions threatening world civilization itself, such as climate change and environmental degradation, taking refuge in the fairy land of antiscience, as though challenges to American might and challenges to the well-being of the planet will alike disappear, if we only close our eyes and keep our finger on the firing trigger (8,000 miles from target) for further assassinations.

[Here follows my New York Times Comment (Feb. 23) to the article on Niger drone base.  The objectives of imperialism]:

Why assume the new base in Niger is directed against Al Qaeda, when in fact the drone presence, necessitating airstrips, provides the basis for establishing a US regional penetration that is part of exerting greater political and economic influence in Africa–head-to-head in competition with China, which has already gained access to raw materials and investment channels.

Counter-terrorism is a ploy, a phony diversion, for achieving the classic objectives of imperialism. The status-of-forces agreement with poor Niger indicates, not respect for another country, but the forcible wresting of concessions from them. Moreover, do you really believe the unarmed drones–if such be the case–will remain unarmed for long? The name of the game is to get inside, then proceed the way the US planned all the time. Assassination leaves a stain on US foreign policy which surely will come back to haunt America.

Norman Pollack is the author of “The Populist Response to Industrial America” (Harvard) and “The Just Polity” (Illinois), Guggenheim Fellow, and professor of history emeritus, Michigan State University.

The Funniest Logistician in the U.S. Army (So Far)


War Story

By Mark ThompsonFeb. 26, 2013

Army Major Joel Huft is that rare officer who since 9/11 has served in Uzbekistan/Afghanistan (2003), Djibouti (2007) and Iraq (2009). In this December 2012, interview with the Combat Studies Institute at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, you can sense that the 20-year logistician is so in love with life, with the Army, and his mission that he turns his beans-and-bullets billet into equal parts Monty Python and War and Peace.

We’re sure that for every reader who’s outraged by what he has to say, at least two will be delighted. That’s a true force-multiplier for you. Highlights:

[Tell us about your first deployment in the war on terror.]

I was in the corps support command (COSCOM) in the 530 Service & Supply (S&S) Battalion. I had just transferred in and had pissed the battalion commander off really bad and I was there two weeks before he found an individual augmentee (IA) assignment for me and I went with the COSCOM to Afghanistan.
I enjoyed Bagram and I spent about a month down in Mazar-e-Sharif, which was a wonderful little assignment. There was a Jordanian hospital that we were supporting. So, the Jordanian military had brought in group of doctors and a little security force, actually Jordanian Special Forces. I have to tell you, at the time, the Jordanian Special Forces were easily on par with any US mall security or maybe the Boy Scouts. They were that good. [Laughter]

While I was there, I got to see the neat operations they had. Primarily it was medical service to people in the area of Mazar-e-Sharif, so it was a “trail of tears” every morning. They would come in through the gate and it was a small military enclave, really, a couple of tents and some Hesko barriers was about all we had inside of the Jordanian base. We had our own internal perimeter. Every morning they would come in, this “trail of tears,” people pushing old people in wheelchairs with only three wheels, and every day they would leave, again a kind of “trail of tears.”

The reason I initially came down there was I led a convoy down there. This was back in the – - this is why I loved Afghanistan, at this point it was kind of like the old west. This was the no-shit mission I got, “Hey, we need an officer to go down on this convoy and this would be great experience for one of your officers.” It was somebody else’s unit going down there. They were all non-tactical vehicles. They were five non-tactical vehicles. They gave me a non-commissioned officer (NCO), so it was me and an NCO from my organization, three vehicles.

\Three of the other vehicles were from two different organizations and then the fifth vehicle had some civilian government agency people that I don’t know anything about other than they were on the convoy with me and that is really all I know about them. Having said that, their translation skills did prove useful several times.

That was my convoy. They only communication (comms) devise I had was an iridium cell phone with a secure sleeve, and the subsequent little antenna piece that you can hook onto the top of the vehicle. If you have ever tried to use one of these in the mountains of Afghanistan, you will know that this is not a very effective comms devise. We were pretty much out of comms from about two-hours out until about two-hours into Mazar-e-Sharif.
\
While on the convoy we had a series of wonderful experiences driving down, crossing the border of Afghanistan, then driving on these roads, trails, mixes. Sometimes, there was one part just south of the river that was very deserty and there were literally these sand dunes that would cover the roads, so you would have to Baja around them, through just pure sand. You couldn’t stop or slow down because it was such a soft sand that you would stick. It was literally pretty much just as fast as you could go bouncing through the sand.

At one point the container, we were carrying down a large propane, very large, filled the whole inside of one of these trucks, with propane, because they had just built an incinerator device for the medical waste. It had been building up.

There was a twenty-foot container express (CONEX) full of amputated parts and gauze that had been sitting all summer that they needed to burn. That was the most important thing that we had. It was in my vehicle and as we are bounding along and bounding along it breaks free of its restraints. It really wasn’t tied down that well and I didn’t know well enough to check.

So as it is bouncing around back there I am like, “Ahhh, what are you, ahhhh.” You can’t stop. It hits the roof and I hear a “pink, sssssssss,” so now I have leaking propane in a closed vehicle. You can’t open the windows because the dust is just so intense. It is bouncing against the roof, putting dents in the roof, and spewing, sparking, it is a bad situation.

I literally had to put my body on top of this propane tank, to prevent it from metal on metal and sparking until we can get to a piece of hardball where we could stop. There’s really nothing I could do but toss it out of the vehicle. So, the most important thing on the entire mission, this is one of my lovely stories for mission command, but the most important thing on the convoy, I had to abandon.

This was early in the war and you are very uncomfortable abandoning things.

Later on in Iraq, people left everything they could imagine on the side of the road. But, I was still part of that garrison mindset that I agonized over leaving a fricking propane tank. You think about what we have left since then.

So, we get into Mazar-e-Sharif and find out the most important thing on the convoy wasn’t the propane tank, it was the rubber hosing on the propane tank. They could get the propane in town; they couldn’t get any of the hosing. So because I didn’t know to but [sic] the hosing off the tank when I threw it out it was another month before they could burn all that medical waste.

Such wonderful mission command, too…My maps, there were no maps. There were no compasses. What I was given was black and white photocopied images from previous photographs of intersections with arrows drawn on them, left or right. It was taken during a different season and it looked to be at least a year old.

Multiple photocopies, so it was kind of hazy too. It was okay, because they gave me somebody who had been on the trip. He knew the route. When I did my convoy commander brief, he had been on the route once and that was six-months ago and he was a translator, he hadn’t been paying attention.

That is primarily why I think of Afghanistan very much like the Wild West.

[In Baghdad.]

There we are, we end up going to Baghdad, Iraq to be the first Advise and Assist Brigade (AAB)in Baghdad. When we arrived we took over the footprint of two brigades, one in the north, one in the south…

Baghdad still had Baghdad International Airport (BIAP). It still had all these numerous little FOBs with subsequent units and they all still needed to be supplied. Being that the combat sustainment support battalion (CSSB) left, so after the corps support units left, our BSB was the only support, battalion-sized organization in the entire area and we supported God and everybody.

That was a fun, fun year. Again, I am sure you have heard about a lot of people in Baghdad. The neatest personal experience was – - I was a G3, so I went out of my way to make sure I went on convoys. I went on at least one convoy a week and I rode with every convoy commander, because we had gun truck teams. The convoys would rotate in and out, but I had three gun truck teams that I managed, so I went with them pretty much once, twice a week.

God bless him, he didn’t do a good enough recon and my intelligence officer (S2) had kind of failed too. They had some route closed. Here we are going into a FOB and it was one we didn’t normally go into. It was over by Camp Liberty and ends up taking the wrong, not taking the wrong road, but taking a road that we shouldn’t have went down.

So, now I have all these 40-foot trucks stuck on a very narrow small street, downtown Baghdad, not exactly spitting distance from some very bad neighborhoods, but yet we’re not where we should be. I have about 20 trucks that I have to back up out of this narrow alleyway. I have five gun trucks, so that means you have got truck drivers, and generally most of our trucks by this point were KBR trucks that we were escorting. They didn’t have truck commanders. There is no assistant driver.

Now they were great drivers, but still you have to put some people on the ground to back them up and if you have people on the ground you have to have security. So really, I had five gun trucks and basically one or two extra person per truck. So, at the time I was training my replacement, so he and I actually got out and stood on the streets of Baghdad providing security so that we could back these trucks out. I can say I have stood alone and unafraid on the streets of Baghdad. It was a very interesting experience.

[In Djibouti.]

Joint Task Force – Horn of Africa (JTF-HOA) is a really neat assignment…at this point [in Germany] I was working in the G1 [personnel shop], even though I am not a personnel person. Not even remotely good at it, that is how I found myself in Afghanistan, honestly…

I volunteered for it. It turned out to be the most amazing experience. When the Army said, “We are going to deploy you to Africa,” but what they really said, “We are going to send you on a safari.”..

I fly through De Gaulle Airport [Paris, France], which is the craziest place ever. I, of course, had to transport weapons through there and the French were a little silly about the weapons, but at any rate, I fly and I get there.

I will mention that Ethiopian Air is much better than it sounds. The government does not always pick the cheapest carrier I am sure. Regardless, I arrive in Djibouti, step off the airport, no one is there to meet me. IA, I have all these duffle bags and really, I had gone to the tuff boxes, so I had a couple of tuff boxes, and I had to make sure I got my weapon.

Nobody has probably mentioned this to you, but you wake up fearing you have lost your weapon. It is an intense experience, especially like when you come home on mid-tour leave or right after a deployment. You wake up and think, “Where is my weapon?” It is one of these things they kind of ingrain in you.

So, I get all my stuff together and there is nobody there. Nobody there to meet me. I knew there had been prior coordination. Again, this is a tiny – - it is called an international airport, because it is an international airport, but it is really one terminal.

You walk off the plank, down the steps. You walk through this old un-air-conditioned building. They have metal detectors, which I know for a fact won’t pick anything up, because I walked through, several flights later I’d gone through with numerous different weapons, not a problem.

No security that I could even really notice. Again, former French colony, the Djiboutian are pretty laid back for the most part. Their entire economy seems to exist off of the French forces there and our forces there. A little bit of shipping, they provide a couple of fuel dumps that the country provides, but it is primarily a drug-based economy.

The khat, if you heard, they chew this stuff and it is a basically a mild narcotic. At the time, the cartel that ran it was the president’s wife. The khat plane came in in the morning with fresh cuttings and then everyday they flew khat in from Ethiopia or whatnot. The experience was kind of – - here I am, I don’t know where I am. I don’t know what I am doing.

Again, mission command, I love mission command, throw people, throw money, throw anything at a problem. I see a Sailor and I am like, “Hey, are you part of a ship here or part of a base.” He’s like, “Yeah, we are over at Camp Lemonnier. Nobody’s here to meet you? We’ll take you.” Because they were waiting on somebody else who was flying in. So here, I am faced with a decision, “He looks like a Sailor, in a uniform. They have a vehicle, yeah….”
That is how I arrived at Camp Lemonnier, Djibouti, was catching a ride from a Sailor and a small group of folks. When I got there, before I went down there I talked to my predecessor about, “Okay, this is the first time I have been in a real joint environment.” I mean I had kind of done some joint stuff, but this is joint. “What do I need to do to prepare myself?

What kind of joint publications do should I bring?” He said, “Ah, don’t bother; we don’t use any of them anyway.” This is 2007, we still weren’t paying attention to joint operations and I got to see that quite a bit over the course of the time I was there. I was working in what they called the J4, which is like any other kind of 4, it is the loggies (logistics officers).

It was such a neat environment. At that point, the Marines had transitioned to the Navy, so the Navy was controlling the FOB. They had some interesting rules. The Navy had this thing they called “liberty.” Liberty means, for like weekends of passes, you can pretty much go in to town and as long as you don’t break any of the specific rules and have a battle buddy, you can go into town, have a dinner. You could drink in town. You could go to a couple of neat shops, but there was things you could do.

At the same time, they also had cantinas on the FOB. Here we are in US Central Command (CENTCOM), technically it was still part of CENTCOM. This was before US Africa Command (AFRICOM) stood up. AFRICOM stood up in 2008, right at the end of my time there. They had cantinas. They had two cantinas, with a three-beer limit. I promise you never more than three beers [holding up five fingers].

They even gave me a card. It was amazing. Here I am in this pleasant hot desolate country, working in the most joint environment ever. I mean there were Marine security forces. There were Navy folks operating the FOB. There were numerous Army units there, to include – - this is in 2007, if you remember this is during the surge, so while many of my brethren were suffering in Iraq, we had scraped the bottom of the barrel.

Some of the Army units that were in Djibouti for, not even just security, but also to conduct tasks that are traditionally Special Forces (SF) tasks – - train, advise and assist, train some military (mil)-to-mil training, were being conducted by the Guam National Guard and the Old Guard out of Washington, DC. That is a ceremonial unit if you are not familiar with the Old Guard. It is an INF unit, but it is the guys who wear the wigs and the old uniform stuff. Good times…

Some of the things I learned most about the Navy, their supply guys are better than ours. They are good. They are very, very good. I can’t, it is mind boggling how well they are tailored to their job, but they just don’t get inland operations. I mean that by understating, when you get on a ship, now granted it is tough. You have to figure out how to pack everything inside of that ship, so that you have enough stuff for six-months.

If you miss something, you’ve got all the movement pieces, the FedEx, the DHL and you got all the widgets down to get it to you. But you are all going to the same place. You’re all traveling in the same direction. You don’t have to worry about the minutia of the op order with people flying all over the country, various different locations. You know trying to make everything sync in the end. Really, it was good to have that joint environment, because they have a certain expertise and I got to learn a lot from them…
My area of operations (AO) straddled US Pacific Command (PACOM), US European Command (EUCOM), and AFRICOM. Anytime I dealt with anything in those countries, I not only had to deal with the higher combatant command (COCOM), but I also had to deal with the defense attaché and their teams in each of their countries.
A neat thing about a joint environment, embassies tend to be very, they have to be, they have political concerns that we have to take into consideration. So they tend to be very insular. They tend to be very protective. Knowledge management with them – - and they worst thing you could possibly do is have your joint task force’s commanders goals anyway deviating from the embassy’s goals, because it makes anything done in the country practically impossible and we had that happen quite frequently.

That’s all kind of good and moot for me. I am a supporter. I am a logistician. I will do anything I can to make sure that Soldiers get mail, they get food, they’ve got a roof over their head or at least something to keep them dry. We had all these little, at one point in the entire AO there were 47 different little installations, some of them were small as a five-man CA team up in the far reaches of Uganda, up past Lira, working with the Ugandans, the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) was very active at the time.

Then the Karamojong, the Karamojong are these neat people; they just kind of go all over north central Africa. You have got southern Sudan, northern Kenya, and these are cattle people and they believe that every cattle on the face of the earth belongs to them. Whenever they see cattle, they take the cattle.

They are kind of rustlers. We had been trying to work with the government to do a guns for cows. You know, “You give us the guns and we will give you the cows. We will give you cows.” Which is all fine and good except from the Karamojong perspective, “If I have a gun, why do I need you to give me a cow?” Fun times…

Contentions and contracting was another very valuable lesson there. One of the problems we had was there wasn’t a lot – - being joint and being so dispersed and not really having a central theme or effort, at least not that I could tell at the joint staff level.

We had units coming in doing things and we had no idea about them. I remember one time, I had a team that had gone into Ethiopia and they had set up a little safe house and they had done all that with field ordering officer (FOO) funding, FOO ops.

When they came back, they asked, “Hey, we would like some things.” I am like, “Sure, what do you need?” “Okay, well we are going to need regular food. We are going to need electricity. We are going to have fuel brought to us.”
“Okay, when are you setting this place up?”
“Oh, we have been there a month.”

Those were the kind of challenges that you had. One of my initiatives that I really enjoyed was the newcomers brief. I just made sure that I stressed, I had this – - I like talking, so I had put together a fairly fun brief to cause people to remember that, “When you are going to do something, you may need something, come talk to the J4.” “Because you may think you need tents, but then would you like lights for the tents, would you a generator for the lights, would you like cots?”

Because it is just one of those things. I have lived supporting maneuver people, I truly do. There is no body better to be able to tell you actions on the objective. They can, down to the minutia, they can tell you where every Soldier is going to be. They can tell you how many rounds they are going to expend. Where they are going to use what. They know actions on the objective. They may even know how they are going to get to the objective.

They may know that, but five minutes after they have taken the objective, they are clueless. [Laughter]

Helping people realize what they need or what you need from them to tell them I’ll provide them what they need has been a great, great challenge and joy for the last twenty years…

[Did you know going into Djibouti what you were going to be doing?]

Not a fricking clue. Could not have told you what I was going to do.

[Nothing like, "Here is my job description. Here are my responsibilities. Here is what I am going to do."]

Nope, nope…There was a position on a joint manning document and there was no real descriptor there. I kind of made a job. It is not that there weren’t things to do, but I kind of had to make a niche for myself. Fine, fine, supply…

See the Navy, there supply people only focus on supply. They don’t focus on anything else. That is their job. They are not what they call line officers, so they can’t command. The Army’s got a philosophy that everybody needs to be able to lead, so we don’t get to specialize near as much as the Navy really does…

There was a rotator [aircraft] and then occasionally we could get a special move in. The rotator pretty much came out of Bahrain and it was one flight a week. We got one C-130 a week and we had to use it very, very carefully. Generally, it would hit Djibouti, then it would hit Kenya, and then depending on the timeframe it might hit Uganda and then Tanzania every other month or something like that. We got it up to once a month for certain. Then when we had to do special Seabee missions or something like that we could get some extra birds.

I retrograded some stuff out of there so I got a C-5, because it was too big. There were some well drilling trucks that I couldn’t get rid of. That was a fun time too. Again, such a chaotic place. Never got shot at while I was there, there were some instances, but I never got shot at while I was there. At the same time, there was no rhyme or reason.
There was a National Guard well drilling unit that had left prior to me arriving. They had turned all of their equipment over, this is home station unit equipment, they had turned it all over to a Reserve well-drilling unit. You can’t just give equipment from one Title 22 to another Title 22 organization and not to a Title 10. The National Guard cannot, a unit cannot chose to give equipment to the Reserves and vice versa. But, that is what they did.

Then I couldn’t get it back to the original unit, because they had taken well-drilling completely out of the National Guard. It could have been Reserve to National Guard or vice versa, I don’t remember which. One of them no longer has any well drilling. So then what do I do with this? It is a national level thing to transfer this equipment, because of the title of the money. I finally got Army Forces Central Command (ARCENT) to weigh in and they sent me an old sergeant major and a chief to help me get the stuff fixed and running.

We were going to ship it back to, first to Kuwait, because we didn’t have to worry about any environmental things, so they could clean it up and send it back to the States and refurbish it and so all that good stuff. Using the big Army, I managed to make that happen. My single greatest joy is we tried to ship it out of there. We tried to do all sorts of stuff to get it out of there. I spent four months probably working on this stupid thing. They were big ugly messed-up trucks. This unit had left their weapons in a CONEX when they left.

They left one poor staff sergeant (E6) to handle everything before they went ahead and went back, so he stuck around as long as he could and no solution for him, so he left. Again, it’s just not knowing who to talk to and having to go back and dig through all the records to try to figure this stuff out.

I have long hated the Air Force and it is not just a like a personal grudge, it is a passionate hatred for the Air Force. In Afghanistan, everywhere I have been, they have done some really stupid, fucked-up stuff. Because they don’t want to stay in one country, the will do anything they can not to break crew so they don’t have to stay in that country – - to include fly off without delivering fresh food and vegetables.

How can you leave 3500 people without any fresh fruit and vegetables for a week? You know, lettuce gets pretty moldy after a week. Just so they can go back to Germany and get a nice hotel room. Same thing down in Africa too. They would do anything to get out of Djibouti.

Djibouti, I can’t tell you how nasty that place was, but if you got into Kenya it was this lush, verdant, beautiful place. You would fly into Entebbe and you’ve got the big Lake Victoria there. Because there were security requirements and there are no security forces, you had to stay in hotels that had security guards. So, to have armed guards, you were pretty much staying in four- and five-star hotels. Yeah, of course, they wanted to break down in Kenya versus Djibouti.

At any rate, here is one of my few great chances at revenge. We have a C-5 coming in there. I know for a fact that these trucks will start, but once you turn them off they weren’t starting again; they were done.

So, we kept them running [Laughter] to get them on the C-5 and that was it. We turned them off and it was there problem on the other end. [Laughter]

I actually take great pride in having done that. I know it is wrong. It’s wrong on so many human levels, but I can’t tell you the number of times the Air Force has dropped a load on me. Pushed the, to the left… In fact redeploying from Afghanistan, they held out entire unit overnight because a general officer (GO) wanted to fly on our aircraft, but he wanted to get rest first before flying back for a meeting in Germany.

I get it. GOs have got important stuff, but we were on the bird when they cancelled the flight, redeploying after, at that time they were shorter deployments, we were only nine-months, but still. Yeah, I am not going to go into all that. And, my brother is Air Force. The things that he takes great pride in are things that I as a Soldier feel shameful about. If that makes any sense.

Now don’t get me wrong that is a great organization, it really is. There is a need for it to be separate. But, they are, with the exception of some fighter pilots, who have their own multi-zipper, sun god issues, they really are the bus drivers of the air.

They are more technicians than they are Soldiers, that is for sure. They can outsource those pilot jobs to drones now a days…

Then we periodically, 90 percent of what was being done in Djibouti in 2007 was really on the, in the full spectrum scheme, it was really humanitarian aid. It was mil-to-mil training, that kind of stuff. There is about a ten percent kinetic piece. There were some SF guys, of some form, that would periodically disappear and then somebody else would disappear and they would come back. Supporting them was sometimes very interesting. I remember one request, they came to me, “I need as many non-tactical vehicles (NTVs) as you can give me.”

“When do you need them?”

“Tonight.”

“How many do you need?”

“Thirty.”


I had to go around the FOB and pull vehicles from people just so I could give them enough vehicles with no notice, so that they could do and do whatever they were going to do. It was probably a party down at the embassy. I don’t know. [Laughter]…

[So you have some challenges. What were your successes? Besides getting rid of the well drilling equipment.]

I got to tell you there was a poker team. It was a poker club, because we had the cantinas. There were two lax periods, there were half days on Sunday and on Friday, because Friday was the Islamic day off and Sunday is kinds of ours. Thursday night and Saturday night were poker nights and I got very, very good at seven-card poker. I got very good at that. [Laughter]…

[Did you have much interaction with civilians in Djibouti?]

In Djibouti, yes. There were a number of vendors we worked through to get local materials. One of my biggest frustrations is there are certain laws for contracting. There are things you can and cannot contract, the things you can and cannot buy. Somebody has mentioned to you about containers and about leasing containers by now, I am sure.

Okay, when I was in Afghanistan in 2003, I said, “Why don’t we just buy these containers?” Milvans, civilian 20, 40-foot containers.

We couldn’t buy them, so we have been leasing them. Eleven years now. We have paid for these things five, six times over.

We were leasing cars because we couldn’t buy NTVs. We were leasing cars at $50,000 a year for a beat-up SUV. Could have bought two or three trucks for that.

“Well, it’s got the maintenance package included in it.”

[Any other specific memories of Djibouti?]

My predecessor was a National Guard guy and he ended up having a little bit of linger, [Laughter] go home. So he spent about another month on the ground after I got there, so him and an Air Force guy, they were big bikers.

Djibouti, just on the south side of the city is where Camp Lemonnier is. You are about ten miles from the Somali border. So, he, I and I can’t remember the Air Force bubba’s name, took out some MWR bikes and we rode down to the border of Somalia, just so we could enter Somalia.

Now granted, this part of Somalia is not like Mogadishu (Mog).

This is the old British Somaliland. These people are humans. [Laughter] It wasn’t quite like the Mog, but we did kind of sneak over the border and back once. That was a very unique experience.

I had a Navy chief petty officer and he was from the Philippines and the Guam National Guard was there and they had a connection. Somehow, they managed to go out and fish, so they would come back and we would occasionally have a good cookout with like some fresh fish.

He was a supply guy, he was a chief, so somehow he got the – - it wasn’t KBR, it was a different contract down there at the time, a Navy contract at the time – - he would get some fresh fruits and vegetables. We had the cantinas. You had a three-beer limit, by the way I am holding up five fingers. [Laughter]
Every so often, you would have a lot of fun. That was it was a very interesting experience personally and again, I just kind of fell into it. I have led a charmed life. I truly have.

I have been in some nasty places in Afghanistan early on and I would literally, I would have – - at Bagram, I was inspecting the fuel delivery. We had established an assault hose line so the trucks could stay outside and download through a 500-meter hose versus bringing a potential bomb inside the FOB. It was a good thing. I was inspecting it. The very next day a guy had to go out the gate, I was no body armor at that time, it was flak vests if you wore them. So, I was outside the front of the gate wandering around. The very next day, somebody got shot doing something similar.

In Baghdad, at Ur, right outside of Sadr City, that place was always getting hit. I went and spent three days there, nothing happened. They had had a firefight the night before I got there. I was there for three days, nothing happened while I was there. They left and one of the contracted security guards took a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG). I will literally land at a FOB that had just been mortared.

In the HOA, bad accident in front of me. They don’t have quite the same standards. You know, there are piles of dead bodies on the road in front of me. Thirty-seconds is all it would have taken for me to have been involved in the accident. I have truly led a charmed life.

Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum assesses 2013 March-May rainy season

The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum has issued its seasonal predictions for the forthcoming March-May rainy  season which is vital to agriculture and food security in a region that has been hit by both droughts and floods in recent years.

There is an increased likelihood of near normal to below normal rainfall over much of the northern part of South Sudan; southern Sudan; northern and eastern Ethiopia; eastern half of Kenya; Somalia, and eastern parts of Tanzania, according to the outlook. Specifically, it indicated a 45 percent probability of near normal rainfall, a 35 percent probability of below normal rainfall, and a 20 percent probability of above normal rainfall in these areas.

Burundi; Rwanda; Uganda; southern parts of South Sudan; southwestern and central Ethiopia; western and central Kenya as well as western half of Tanzania have an increased likelihood of normal (45 percent) to above-normal (percent) rainfall in  March-May, it said, noting a 20 per cent probability of below normal rainfall in these areas.

The climate outlook was issued at the end of a meeting organized by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), 18-20 February in Bujumbura, Burundi. Factors taken into  consideration included sea surface temperature conditions over the Western Indian and eastern tropical Atlantic Oceans, as well as neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Key processes considered also  included, the Indian Ocean Dipole, monsoonal wind systems over the region and tropical cyclone activities over Indian  Ocean sub region.

The Climate Outlook Forum brought together national experts from countries in the Greater Horn of Africa, along with  regional and international experts involved in seasonal climate prediction and users of climate early warning advisories from  sectors such as food security, health and water resources and for disaster risk reduction.

March to May constitutes an important rainfall season over the equatorial parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region.

Parts of the Greater Horn of Africa were ravaged by severe drought in 2010/2011 followed by excessive rains in various  equatorial areas including parts of Kenya and southern Somalia.

The outlook is relevant only for seasonal time scales and relatively large areas. Local and month-to-month variations might  occur as the season progresses. Regional forecast updates will be provided by ICPAC while National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will provide detailed National Updates.

WMO has been supporting Regional Climate Outlook Forums around the world, ever since the inception of the first forum in  Southern Africa in 1997. Regional Climate Outlook Forums presently serve more than half the world’s population.

Shan Dal oo midawga Yurub ah oo mar kali ah shan Safiir u soo magacawday Somaliya iyo Madaxweynaha oo qaabilay

Madaxweynaha Jamhuuriyadda Federaalka Soomaaliya Mudane Xasan Sheekh Maxamuud ayaa Villa Soomaaliya ku qaabilay safiiro cusub oo ay soo magacaabeen 5dal oo ka tirsan Midowga Yurub

Waxaa kulankan ka qeyb-galay Raisul Wasaare Ku Xigeenka Ahna Wasiirka Arimaha Dibadda Marwo Fowziya Yusuf Hagi Adam Wasiirul dowlaha Wasaaradda Arimaha Dibadda Mudane Dr. Maxamed Nuur Gacal iyo Agaasimaha Guud ee Madaxtooyada Kamal Dahir Xassan (Gutaale).

Safiiradda cusub ayaa waxay kala yihiin Ambassador Margit Hellwig-Bötte oo ka socota dalka Jarmalka, H.E. Etienne De Poncins,Fransiiska, Ambassador Javier Herrera García-Canturri Spain,Ambassador.Bart Ouvry Beljinka, Ambdbassador Sofie From-Emmesberger oo ka socoatay Finland.

Madaxweynaha ayaa wuxuu yiri ”Maanta aad ayaan ugu faraxsanahay in aan soo dhaweyno xiriika diblomaasiyeed ee nagala dhaxeeyo shan dal oo cusub.Soomaaliyana si tartiib ah ayey waxey dib ugu soo dhex muuqatay beesha caalamka. Waxaana sabab u ah taageradda ay la garabtaagan yihiin dalal ay ka mid yihiin Fransiiska, Jarmalka,Spain,Beljinka, iyo Findland oo qeyb ka qaadanayo horumarka iyo xalinta dhibaatada ka taagan Soomaaliya.

Dowladda Soomaaliya waxeey diyaar u tahay marwalbo in ay idin soo dhaweeyso.Waxaa naga go’an inaan xoojino xiriirka u dhaxeeyo Soomaaliyo iyo dalalkiina.’“

Ilaa iyo markii uu Madaxweyna Xassan la wareegay Madaxtooyadda ayaa waxaa soo kordhayo dalalka dib u soo celinayo xiriirkii kala dhaxeeyo Soomaaliya .Kadib, markii u Madaxweynaha booqday xarunta Midowga Yurub ee Brussels dhamaadkii bisha Janaayo si u gudbiyo fikirkiisa siyasadeed ee ku saleysan Lixda Tiir Siyaasadeed oo hormuud ay ka yihiin, waxka qabadka amniga,cadaaladda,maareynta dhaqaalaha,horumarka iyo ,dib-u heshiisiinta .

Wixii Faah-faahin ah kala xiriir:Malik Abdalla Agaasimaha Warfaafinta, Villa Soomaaliya,media@presidency.gov.so

Djibouti: Observers Declare Djiboutian Election Legitimate, Opposition Plans Protest


DJIBOUTI — Djibouti security forces fought running battles with opposition supporters Tuesday for a second day in an attempt to disperse protests against the ruling coalition's parliamentary election victory, witnesses said.


Djibouti hosts the United States' only military base in Africa and is an important ally in the U.S.-led fight against militant Islam. The former French colony's port also is used by foreign navies protecting the Gulf of Aden's shipping lanes, some of the busiest in the world, from Somali pirates.


Riot police fired tear gas to scatter hundreds of chanting demonstrators outside the Justice Ministry who were demanding the release of Sheikh Bashir Abdourahim, a prominent opposition figure whose family said he had been arrested on Monday.


"Not only did they steal our election victory, they're throwing into jail the people we voted for,'' Ali Saleh, a university student, told Reuters.


Protesters pledged to keep up the unrest until President Ismail Omar Guelleh's government collapses.


The dispute over the poll raises the possibility of instability in the tiny but strategically important Red Sea state.


Guelleh's Union for the Presidential Majority (UMP) declared victory in the election, claiming 49 out of the National Assembly's 65 seats.


The opposition rejected the vote as flawed and promised demonstrations.


International observers, however, reported no major incidents during the electoral process.


Guelleh has presided effectively over a one-party state since coming to power in 1999. The opposition accuses the 65-year-old leader of mounting oppression against Djibouti's 920,000-strong population.


Relatives of Abdourahim, a moderate Islamist who heads the Movement for Democracy and Freedom [MODEL] party, said he had been badly beaten during his detention.


In a radio broadcast, Interior Minister Hassan Darar appealed for calm, but made no reference to Abdourahim. Authorities have not confirmed his arrest.

Ethiopia bans NGOs

Ethiopia bans NGOs â€¨â€¨Ethiopia on Friday banned three civic organisations accusing them of doing 'illegal religious activities.'

The ban came at a time when Ethiopian muslims are protesting against perceived government interference in their activities.

No further details were made available by the government on the alleged illegal activities that led to the ban.

Observers fear the latest move by the government would spark protests by muslims in the Horn of Africa country.



One Euro, Islamic Cultural and Research Center and Gohe Child, Youth and Women Development were affected by the ban.



Ethiopia has banned a number of non governmental organisations since it introduced the Civic Organisations Law two years ago.

The law seeks control operations of NGOs and their source of funding.



According to the law, any civic group that receives more than 10 percent of its funding from foreign sources cannot be involved in human rights advocacy or capacity building, among other activities.



The Ethiopia Civic Organizations Registrar said the banned organisations were using money from donors to fund personal affairs.

The agency said it had also sent a warning to some 109 civic organisations considered to be violating the law.



Ethiopia has 2,854 registered civic and charity organisations.