Freedom Fighters/Separatists Around the World Draw Inspiration From Scotland

By KATRIN BENNHOLD

STEENOKKERZEEL, Belgium — For Kurt Ryon, the mayor of Steenokkerzeel, a Flemish village 10 miles northeast of Brussels, watching the Scottish independence campaign in the final days before the referendum is like watching a good game of soccer. “They were losing for the first half and most of the second half,” he said, “but now we’re in the 85th minute and they could be winning.”

Mr. Ryon, who wants his native Flanders to split from Belgium, is rooting for Scotland to do the same from Britain, and like a faithful soccer fan he has all the gear: a T-shirt from the Scottish pro-independence “yes” campaign, a collection of “yes” pins on his denim jacket and copious amounts of a beer specially brewed by Flemish nationalists to express their solidarity. The label says “Ja!” next to a Scottish flag, Flemish for yes.

From Catalonia to Kurdistan, nationalist and separatist movements inEurope and beyond are watching the Scottish independence referendum closely — sometimes more so than Britons themselves, who seem to have only just woken up to the possibility that Scotland might vote next Thursday to bring to an end a 307-year union. A curious collection of left and right, rich and poor, marginal and mainstream, these movements are united in the hope that their shared ambition for more self-determination will get a lift from an independent Scotland.

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Scotland’s Debate: Stay Big or Go Small

On Sept. 18, Scotland is scheduled to vote on seceding from Britain. We take a look at the issues at stake for the Scottish people.

In the separatist-minded Basque Country, an autonomous community in northern Spain, the leader of the governing nationalist party has been known to dress up in a Scottish kilt and jokes that Basques would rather be part of an independent Scotland than remain part of Spain, which has ruled out any kind of vote. In Veneto, a region of northern Italy, nationalists have held a Scottish-inspired online referendum and now claim that 9 in 10 inhabitants want autonomy.

Busloads of Catalans, South Tiroleans, Corsicans, Bretons, Frisians and “Finland-Swedes” are headed for Scotland to witness the vote. Even Bavaria (which calls itself “Europe’s seventh-largest economy”) is sending a delegation.

“It would create a very important precedent,” said Naif Bezwan of Mardin Artuklu University in the Kurdish part of Turkey. Across the Iraqi border (“the Kurdish-Kurdish border,” as Mr. Bezwan puts it), where a confluence of war, oil disputes and political turmoil has renewed the debate about secession, Kurds pine for the opportunity of a Scottish-style breakup. “Everyone here is watching,” said Hemin Lihony, the web manager at Rudaw, Kurdistan’s largest news organization, based in Erbil, Iraq.

History offers few examples of nations splitting up in a consensual way. The velvet divorce between the Czechs and the Slovaks in 1993 is one, the Norwegian referendum on independence from Sweden in 1905 another. But mostly, nation states go to war over their borders.

America fought a civil war to preserve the union. Turkey fought Kurdish nationalists for decades and still denies them the right to Kurdish-languageeducation. Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia — a status still not recognized by some countries — only after a war in the 1990s.

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who annexed Crimea in March after a stealth invasion and a referendum there, and who has been accused of aggressively aiding separatists in eastern Ukraine, has happily supported Scotland’s independence bid. But his attachment to self-determination is highly selective: In the Russian republics of Chechnya and Dagestan, he has deployed savage force to crush Muslim separatists seeking to break from Russia.

In some cases, the referendum in Scotland is fueling new hopes, however improbable, among separatist fringe groups. When the president of the Texas Nationalist Movement, Daniel Miller, was invited to the University of Stirling in Scotland this year, he said the Scots were paving the way for an independent Texas. “Scottish independence is a study in the very same debates that will take place in Texas ahead of the binding referendum on independence that is in our future,” Mr. Miller said.

In others, it is re-energizing long-running debates with considerable geopolitical importance. In Taiwan, which China claims as part of its territory even though Taiwan is effectively independent with its own currency, military and democratically elected government, some hope that a Scottish “yes” vote could trigger a more careful deliberation over the island’s future.

Wang Dan, a student leader in the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests in Beijing, wrote in a recent column for Taiwan’s Apple Daily, “If the Scottish vote succeeds, it will be worth considering by those who advocate deciding Taiwan’s status through a referendum.”

But it is in Europe that a Scottish “yes” vote would likely create the largest ripples.

It would be the first time that a member of the European Union faces secession by one of its regions. If Scotland succeeds in negotiating its own membership in the bloc, as even opponents of independence predict that it eventually would, it would suddenly make the prospect of independence seem safer and more attractive elsewhere on the Continent, said George Robertson, a former secretary general of NATO.

“There is a serious risk of a domino effect,” said Mr. Robertson, himself a Scot and an opponent of independence. A “yes” vote, he warned, could trigger “the Balkanization of Europe.”

Nationalists, however, say that a bit of Balkanization may be just what Europe needs.

In the slightly dilapidated Brussels office of the European Free Alliance, which groups together 40 parties representing Europe’s “stateless nations,” a busy map shows what Europe would look like if they all became independent.

François Alfonsi, the president of the alliance and a proud Corsican, admits that it would be messy, but “democracy is messy and democracy is what Europe needs.”

National self-determination, he said, “is about bringing policies closer to the people.”

Across town, Mark Demesmaeker, a Flemish member of the European Parliament who has decorated his office with a Scottish flag and keeps a copy of the Scottish white paper on independence on his desk, speaks of “failed nation states.”

In his view, Britain has failed to give the Scots and Welsh proper representation in Parliament, and Spain has failed to deliver democracy to Catalans and Basques eager to have their own independence vote.

Other nations, like France and Italy, have been mired in political and economic stagnation. Mr. Demesmaeker’s own country, Belgium, cannot even form a government. (Belgium had elections in May and is still deep in coalition talks; the last time it took 541 days.)

Pro-European national movements like his own, the New Flemish Alliance — now the biggest party not just in Flanders but in all of Belgium — are the best antidote to the far-right, anti-European and anti-immigrant nationalist movements that did so well in European elections earlier this year, he said.

“If Scotland votes ‘yes,’ it will be an eye opener for many people on the street,” he said. “Most people think it’s our fate to be part of Belgium. But Flanders could be a prosperous nation. It’s a democratic evolution that is going on in different states of the European Union. Eventually we want Flanders to take its place in the E.U.”

If plenty of nationalists have pledged their solidarity with Scotland, the reverse has been less true. The Scottish referendum takes place just days before the regional government of Catalonia is expected to confirm that it will hold an independence vote of its own on Nov. 9, which would override legal and political objections from Madrid.

Alfred Bosch, a Catalan lawmaker, said his counterparts in Scotland had shown little interest in being associated with events in Catalonia.

The Scots “probably want to distance themselves from anything that they see as not as ripe and as mature as their own process,” Mr. Bosch suggested. “They don’t want to create any hostility from Spain or other countries that might also have pro-independence movements,” not least because those governments will have to recognize an independent Scotland and consider whether to allow it into the European Union.

Whatever the outcome of next week’s referendum, many nationalists say Scotland has already won.

“They have the opportunity to decide their own future,” said Andoni Ortuzar, the president of the governing Basque Nationalist Party, who wore a kilt in the 2012 carnival to celebrate the announcement of a Scottish referendum that year.

“That’s what national self-determination is,” he said. “That’s all we ask.”

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Azam Ahmed contributed reporting from Erbil, Iraq; Raphael Minder from Madrid; and Austin Ramzy from Taipei, Taiwan.

Somalia Extremist Group Names New Leader

Saturday after confirming the killing of their previous leader by a U.S. airstrike, a commander of the group said.

The Somali militants unanimously selected Ahmad Umar, also known as Abu Ubaidah, at a meeting in an undisclosed location in Somalia, said rebel commander Abu Mohammed.

Al-Shabab also stated that it remains aligned with al-Qaida, according to the Site IntelligenceGroup, that monitors statements by Islamic militant groups.

There had been speculation that al-Shabab would be shaken by a power struggle over the selection of a new leader and that perhaps the Somali rebels would change alliance and become allied to the Islamic State group.

The Somali group had to appoint a new leader following the death of Ahmed Abdi Godane who was killed with two other officials by a U.S. airstrike Monday. The attack took place 105 miles (170 kilometers) south of Mogadishu, where al-Shabab trains its fighters.

"Avenging the death of our scholars and leader is a binding obligation on our shoulders that we will never relinquish nor forget no matter how long it takes," said the al-Shabab statement, according to Site.

President Barack Obama confirmed Friday that Godane was killed by the U.S. airstrike. The U.S. State Department declared al-Shabab a terrorist organization in February 2008.

Godane was also known as Mukhtar Abu Zubeyr and was the spiritual leader of the al-Qaida-linked group. The U.S. had offered a reward of up to $7 million for information leading to his arrest. Godane had publicly claimed al-Shabab was responsible for last year's deadly Westgate Mall attack in Nairobi, Kenya, that left 67 people dead one year ago.

Somalia's government said Friday night that it has credible intelligence al-Shabab is planning attacks in retaliation for Godane's death.

In a televised speech, Gen. Khalif Ahmed Ereg, Somalia's national security minister, said possible targets include medical and educational institutions. Ereg said the government is vigilant and its armed forces are prepared to prevent such attacks.

The killing of Godane was a "delightful victory," said Ereg. He called on militants still fighting for al-Shabab to surrender to get a "brighter" life from the government.

Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta Saturday thanked the U.S. for killing Godane, saying his death provides "a small measure of closure" for victims of the Westgate Mall attack. Kenyatta's nephew and his fiance died in that attack, a year ago this month.

Godane, who used a number of other aliases, led the planning and was responsible for the perpetration of the attack on Westgate, Kenyatta said.

"We owe the United States, and its soldiers, our heartfelt thanks for bringing an end to Godane'scareer of death and destruction; and finally allowing us to begin our healing," he said.

"His death is a stark reminder that those who live by the sword shall perish by the sword," Kenyatta said.

Al-Shabab has vowed to revenge the presence of Kenyan troops in Somalia. Kenyan troops went into Somalia in October 2011 to fight al-Shabab, which is blamed for cross-border attacks and kidnappings of westerners on Kenyan soil.

Kenya later became part of the African Union force that is bolstering Somalia's weak U.N.-backed government against al-Shabab's insurgency.

The U.S. State Department declared al-Shabab a terrorist organization in February 2008.

———

Associated Press Writer Tom Odula contributed to this report from Nairobi, Kenya

If Shabaab chief Godane is dead, East Africa and the Horn should prepare for the worst

05 SEP 2014 00:45MAIL & GUARDIAN AFRICA SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT

Al-Shabaab’s evolution since 2006 has been such that every major setback led to the rise of a deadly mutant and entrenched the hardcore jihadists.

Young Somalis play at Lido Beach after Al Shabaab withdrew in 2012. ((photo UN/flickr). BELOW a victim of the war in an IDP camp: The situation could get better for everyone--but there's also an off-chance it could deterioriate .

THERE is intense speculation in Somalia and beyond about whether a US drone strike on an Al-Shabaab convoy near the southern Somali coastal town of Barawe on Monday, September 1, killed the Somali militant group’s Emir (supreme leader) Ahmed Abdi Godane.

The Americans are hedging, and Somali intelligence and African Union sources in Mogadishu suggested to  Mail & Guardian Africa that Godane survived the attack. However, were it to turn out that the Americans indeed got the Shabaab chief, it would be a big blow for the hardline factions within Al-Shabaab, and, potentially, likely to trigger a power struggle and further fragmentation.

But the jury is out on whether it marks a turning point in the struggle against militant jihadism in Somalia and the Horn, as many hope.

If the recent history of Islamist militancy and jihadism is any guide, the likelihood of amore militant leadership emerging followed by an upsurge in jihadi violence inside Somalia and East Africa should not be discounted.

Deadly mutant

Al-Shabaab’s evolution since 2006 has been one of progressive radicalisation, and every major setback has only served to make it more violent and entrench the power of the hardcore jihadists.

Could Godane’s death, if confirmed, catalyse further radicalisation and lead to the emergence of a more deadly Al-Shabaab mutant?

That is the fear of many, but there is also dim hope that the combination of renewed military pressure and the death of Godane may create the right context for the vast majority of Al-Shabaab’s non-ideological combatants to surrender.

Operation Indian Ocean

An ambitious military campaign by the 22,000-strong AMISOM troops and the Somali National Army code-named “Operation Indian Ocean” has been under way in central and southern Somalia in the last one month.

Sources have told  Mail &Guardian Africa that he new offensive is “qualitatively different and better coordinated”, with US Special Forces providing crucial logistical support as well as aerial surveillance and satellite intelligence to the African troops.

The joint forces are fighting on multiple fronts and a string of significant towns and villages, such as Tayeglow, Buulo Marer, Goolweyn and Jalaqsi have been recovered from Al-Shabaab.

AMISOM and Somali Army sources say a key strategic objective of the new campaign in the southern axis is to retake the coastal town of Barawe, the last remaining major Al-Shabaab bastion in southern Somalia.

The US drone strike on Monday may have been based on “actionable intelligence” that Godane was in the convoy, as US officials say, but from a purely military perspective, it may have also been a fortuitous piece of luck that could give tactical advantage to the AMISOM troops advancing on Barawe.

The hope of the AMISOM strategists and their Somali allies is that the death will throw the movement into disarray, disrupt its command and control structure and demoralize its fighters.

Olive branch

The Somali Government held an emergency cabinet meeting on Wednesday and declared a 45-day amnesty for Al-Shabaab combatants who surrender voluntarily in a tactical move designed to weaken Al-Shabaab.

The timing of the amnesty is significant and coincides with the imminent assault on Barawe.

And in the wake of Godane’s death, it is plausible a significant number of Al-Shabaab’s combatants may take up the amnesty offer or choose not to put up resistance.

However, the details and terms of the new amnesty are, so far, vague.

The expectation is that the government will in the coming days flesh the details and craft a comprehensive amnesty package that has all the sufficient safeguards and guarantees to make it adequately attractive to those within Al-Shabaab who may see it as a battlefield ruse.

Replacing Godane

Godane has in the last few years been steadily tightening his grip over Al-Shabaab by purging the movement of potential rivals and dissidents, prominent among them senior figures such as Hasan Dahir Aweys and Mukhtar Robow.

There are reports, hard to verify, a number of his close hardline allies were in the convoy that was hit with a US hellfire missile.

They are said to include heavyweights such as Mahad Karate, Sheikh Imbil, Sheikh Abdulqadir Ashkar, Maalin Muse Ibrahim and Sheikh Hassan Yakub.

If true, this would certainly be a huge blow for the hardliners and would, in effect, narrow down the list of potential successors.

There has been a great deal of speculation that Mukhtar Robow, a less hardline figure, may use his reputation as one of the movement’s “historic leadership” to seek to replace Godane.

Robow retreated to his home region of Bay after a bitter falling out with Godane in 2012 and has remained quiet, opting to pursue his military and political goals autonomous of the Godane-led Al-Shabaab.

Experts believe he has the gravitas and mass appeal to win over the broad Al-Shabaab constituency and power base, but is likely to face stiff opposition from the powerful core hardline groups loyal to Godane.

But whether he wants to, no one can tell, at this stage, although the assumption of many is that the death of Godane offers him a chance to make a stab for a leadership comeback.

With no clear successor in line, the future of the jihadi group after Godane would be hard to divine.

For a variety of reasons, not least, Godane’s autocratic and brutal style of leadership, the odds seem heavily stacked against a smooth transition of power. But first, someone will have to produce his body.

-Twitter:@MandGAfrica

Will al-Shabab's New Leader Be as Dangerous as Its Old One?

by GORDON LUBOLD , KATE BRANNEN

The death of al-Shabab leader Ahmed Abdi Godane pushes the counterterrorism fight in Somalia into a new phase, and now U.S. and Somali officials wonder what Godane's possible replacement could mean for the future of the group.

Experts say Godane ruled the group like a tyrant and had killed off several of his likely successors, leaving others at a distance. That raises questions about who might take over for him and how effective that person could be to lead a group that had been seen as an emerging threat in the region.

Hussein Mahmoud Sheikh-Ali, the senior counterterrorism aide to Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, told Foreign Policy on Friday, Sept. 5, that Godane had not created an organization in which a clear successor would be up to the task of replacing him should he be killed.

The two individuals who have already been floated to replace him -- Godane's nominal deputy, Mahad Diriye, and his head of operations, Mahad Karate -- are simply not capable of filling Godane's shoes, Sheikh-Ali said. Neither man is seen as having the education, savvy, or credibility within the organization to pick up where Godane left off.

"Nobody can replace him, and these two people don't have the ability or the capacity to take over this organization going forward," Sheikh-Ali said in a brief interview, adding that Somalia still wants the United States to help his government "finish off" al-Shabab and "end terrorism in Somalia."

U.S. officials, who confirmed Godane's death on Friday, four days after a U.S. airstrike targeted him in the town of Barawe, hailed the militant leader's death, describing it as a significant blow to the organization.

"Removing Godane from the battlefield is a major symbolic and operational loss to al-Shabab," the Pentagon press secretary, Rear Adm. John Kirby, said in a statement. "Shabab is hugely weakened," Sheikh-Ali said.

The group's future relationship with al Qaeda is now uncertain with Godane gone, and some believe that without him, al-Shabab's ambitions to link to the broader network disappears, potentially leaving al-Shabab to slip to a more localized threat characterized more by criminal behavior and illicit trafficking inside Somalia.

"Al-Shabab's emergence as an al Qaeda affiliate has a lot to do with his leadership," a U.S. official said. "Removing Godane from the battlefield doesn't end the threat from al-Shabab, but there's no question it has dealt the group a major setback."

Thomas Joscelyn, senior editor of the Long War Journal, which focuses on U.S. counterterrorism efforts, said there are other al Qaeda loyalists in the group but it's not clear how much power they wield.

He said both Diriye and Karate, who has led the Amniyat, al-Shabab's intelligence and internal security wing, are viable successors and effective leaders.

After days of sifting through various intelligence sources, the Pentagon confirmed that Godane had in fact been killed in Monday's airstrike on a militant position in a rural area of south-central Somalia.

Although there had been widespread confidence that Godane was killed in the strike, U.S. officials were reluctant to confirm that the leader was dead. As foreign intelligence services sought evidence from the site, the U.S. intelligence community was waiting to see whether Godane would start communicating with any of his close associates -- either his wives or senior commanders.

"Everything's gone quiet," a U.S. Defense Department official had told FP on Wednesday.

Previous attempts had Godane resuming communications fairly quickly after being targeted but missed. The defense official said that following a U.S. airstrike on Jan. 26 that killed Sahal Iskudhuq, a senior al-Shabab commander, Godane was up on the Internet within 24 hours.

Immediately after Monday's airstrike in Somalia, Pentagon officials acknowledged the strike and the target -- an unusual move that hinted that American officials were reasonably confident they had succeeded in killing him. After that, though, their confidence seemed to wane. And as recently as Thursday, defense officials said there was no consensus within the intelligence community on whether the strike had actually killed Godane.

Pentagon officials had taken pains to say that no U.S. service members were on the ground near where the strike occurred, which was north of the town of Barawe, where al-Shabab has sought refuge and which is considered a "tough neighborhood" and a perilous place for Western troops. Instead, the United States relied on foreign intelligence services -- mostly Somali -- that had been fighting al-Shabab to relay Godane's status, a defense official told FP.

With little firsthand evidence, the U.S. intelligence community couldn't be sure. Some foreign sources said Godane was dead; others weren't sure.

On Tuesday, the Pentagon provided some of the basic details about the strike. U.S. special operations forces, "working from actionable intelligence" and using manned and unmanned aircraft along with Hellfire missiles and laser-guided munitions, destroyed an encampment and a vehicle, Kirby told reporters in a briefing at the Pentagon on Tuesday. No U.S. troops were on the ground in Somalia before or after the strike, he added.

According to the defense official, three people were killed in the attack, not six as initial press reports indicated.

Shane Harris contributed to this report.

Photo by Mohamed Abdiwahab/AFP/Getty Images

Pentagon confirms al-Shabab leader killed in airstrike in Somalia

By Craig Whitlock 

The Pentagon said Friday that it had confirmed the death of a key Somali militant leader allied with al-Qaeda who had been targeted in a U.S. airstrike earlier this week.

Ahmed Abdi Godane, a co-founder of a network blamed for its brutal tactics in Somalia and for the attack on an upscale Kenyan shopping mall last year, was killed Monday in an attack carried out by U.S. drones and other aircraft, the Pentagon said.

“Removing Godane from the battlefield is a major symbolic and operational loss to al-Shabab,” Rear Adm. John Kirby, the Pentagon press secretary, said in a statement.

U.S. military officials had acknowledged that they were trying to kill Godane in Monday’s air assault on a Shabab compound in southern Somalia. But they had been cautious about asserting the mission was successful, mindful of reports of other al-Qaeda leaders who had been killed in drone attacks, only to resurface later.

The State Department had offered a $7 million reward for information leading to Godane’s arrest. It identified him as a 37-year-old native of northern Somalia who, among other aliases, went by the names Mukhtar Abu Zubeyr and Ahmed Abdi Aw Mohamed.

Monday’s drone strike was the most aggressive U.S. military operation in Somalia in nearly a year, and it came as the Obama administration was already grappling with security crises in Iraq, Syria and Ukraine.

Counterterrorism officials and analysts have described Godane as a particularly ruthless jihadi leader who eliminated several rivals within al-Shabab, either by killing them or forcing them to go underground.

It was unclear who might succeed him as leader of the network. Although al-Shabab often posts comments from the group on social media and gives interviews with journalists in Somalia, it has been mum about whether he survived the airstrike.

Source: washingtonpost.com

Analysis: Did drones kill Al-Shabaab’s leader, and why does it matter?

Drone strikes aimed at Al-Shabaab leader Ahmed Abdi Godane reportedly hit their target, but no one’s sure if he’s actually dead or not. A lot rides on the outcome – and not just the future of Somalia. SIMON ALLISON looks at what this could mean for east Africa’s most dangerous terrorist organisation, and for the American drone programme designed to contain them.

 

On Monday, American drones struck deep in Somalia. They targeted a convoy of vehicles in the Lower Shabelle region, not too far from Mogadishu. Eight people died.

Travelling in the convoy was Ahmed Abdi Godane, undisputed leader of the radical Islamist group known as Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen – or more commonly just Al-Shabaab, ‘the youth’. He was the principal target, but no one knows yet if he was among the victims, not even the Americans with their sophisticated eyes-in-the-sky and global eavesdropping capability.

“If he was killed, this is a very significant blow to their network, to their organisation, and, we believe, to their ability to continue to conduct terrorist attacks,” said Pentagon spokesman John Kirby.

A lot rides on that ‘if’.

For one thing, Kirby is right. Godane’s death really would be a huge setback for Al-Shabaab, one that it may struggle to recover from. “If confirmed, the death of Ahmed Godane could deal a major blow to Al-Shabaab and could be the beginning of the end,” said analyst, Abdi Aynte, on Twitter.

For this, Godane only has himself to blame. The Al-Shabaab leader spent much of last year consolidating his position within the organisation. A brutal purge of top lieutenants left him as Al-Shabaab’s undisputed emir. High profile assassinations took out any obvious successors, including Ibrahim al-Afghani and the American Omar Hammami, while others, such as spiritual leader Hassan Dahir Aweys, were forced to escape into government custody. Aweys was the de facto leader of Al-Shabaab’s nationalist faction and his departure was a major victory for Godane and his international jihadists.

But that victory came at a price. By vesting all power within himself, Godane left Al-Shabaab reliant on his own longevity – which, in this part of the world, is impossible to guarantee, especially when you are a man with as many enemies as Godane.

So if Godane is really dead, it is likely to spark a crisis within Al-Shabaab as new leaders jostle for position. Given that the African Union Mission in Somalia is in the middle of a new offensive to reclaim Al-Shabaab-held territory – Al-Shabaab still control most of south central Somalia – this could hardly come at a worse time for the group. But if he has survived, then perhaps the drone strike will serve as a timely reminder that he must redesign his organisation to outlast him.

Monday’s air strike is also a major development for America’s drone programme in Africa. The US has been operating unmanned aerial vehicles in East Africa for several years, mostly from Djibouti’s Camp Lemonnier, but is rapidly expanding its drone capacity in the region and across the continent. Africa’s radical Islamist groups are the principal targets. Earlier this week, the Washington Post reported that the Pentagon was planning to open a second drone base in Niger. “The new base in Agadez will put US drones closer to a desert corridor connecting northern Mali and southern Libya that is a key route for arms traffickers, drug smugglers and Islamist fighters migrating across the Sahara,” the paper said.

So far, Somalia has seen the most action from American drones in Africa.According to the Bureau of Investigative Journalism, there have been six to nine drone strikes in Somalia in the last seven years, killing between 16 and 30 people (mostly militants; only one civilian is suspected to have died). These are still relatively small numbers, however. In Yemen, there have been at least 65 drone strikes from 2002 to 2014, killing at least 339 people (64 civilians); and in Pakistan an astounding 390 strikes from 2004 to 2014, killing at least 2,347 (416 civilians).
Critics argue, with good reason, that drone strikes constitute human rights violations, especially when civilians become collateral damage. But if Monday’s attack on Godane was indeed successful, it may just provide vindication for US policymakers who consider the drone programme to be a primary counter-terrorism tool.

The US has a long history in Somalia, of course, but its darkest moment came in the infamous Black Hawk Down incident in 1993. The plan was to send in special forces to capture the top lieutenants of a warlord that was terrorising Mogadishu. The special forces went in, but the plan failed miserably – an hour-long operation turned into an overnight standoff, killing hundreds of Somalis and 18 Americans. The next day, American corpses were dragged through the streets of Mogadishu, and gung-ho American interventionism took a body blow from which it would take years to recover.

Now, of course, special forces are not necessarily required to take out high value targets. Often, the Americans can simply send in an unmanned drone instead; same result, but without the potential cost in lives and public humiliation. It’s easy to understand why drones are an attractive option for the people making the difficult decisions. And if Godane really is dead, and Al-Shabaab struggles to recover in his absence, then perhaps it’s time to concede that drones do have a role to play in modern counter-terrorism.

It’s a big ‘if’. For now, however, we must wait and see whether reports of the Al-Shabaab leader’s death have been greatly exaggerated – or whether he is the latest casualty in a long-running conflict that has already claimed tens of thousands of lives. DM

Photo: Somali demonstrators hold placards to protest against the country's Islamist insurgents al-Shabab and al-Qaeda during a demonstration in Mogadishu, Somalia, 15 February 2012. In a video released on 09 February by the Site Intelligence group, al-Shabab leader Ahmed Abdi Godane, also known as Mukhtar Abu Zubair, said the group pledged obedience to al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri and the two groups have merged. EPA/ELYAS AHMED

URGENT NEWS: Al Shabaab Officially Announces the Death of Ahmed Godane

A twitter which belongs to Alshabaab announced the demise of their overall leader Ahmed Godane. This comes days after drones attacked and stroke the leaders of Alshabaab in Southern Somalia.

Reuters said it is not yet clear whether he is dead or not. However, Godane was not seen in public since the bombardment which took place near Sablale on Monday night. Reuters added that since then he was not talking on media to falsify the claims that he might be dead.

The director of Heritage Institute in Mogadishu said if he is dead that may be a game changer. Alshabaab leaders have not spoken about whether their leader is dead or alive. However, earlier media reports said the overall leader of Alshabaab Ahmed Godane survived the drone attack. They said Ahmed left the scene that was stroke moments before the attack. The drones attacked a forest near Sablaale town which is 170km away from Mogadishu.

Ahmed Godane studied in Afghanistan in 1990s. This is not the first time American planes targeted Alshabaab leader. Last year, they killed two Alshabaab leaders in Southern Somalia. In 2008, Adan Hashi Ayrow who was the leader of Alshabaab at the time was killed in bombardment by US forces in central Somalia.

Unearthing Evidence of Barre-era War Crimes: Apply to Field School in Somaliland= deadline for applications are extended it

 

Unearthing Evidence of Barre-era War Crimes: Apply to Field School in Somaliland 

EPAF has extended its deadline for applications to join the Somaliland Field School.  Applications will now be accepted until September 15, 2014.

Students may be interested to know that the University of Northern British Columbia will provide academic credit.  Additional details are below.

The Peruvian Forensic Anthropology Team (EPAF), in partnership with the government of the self-declared Republic of Somaliland, has opened an international forensic training program in Somaliland. The project began September 24, 2012 and the next phase will run from November 5 to December 4, 2014.  The Center for Justice and Accountability (CJA) is a proud sponsor of this program, which will help determine the universe of missing people through a systematic approach, ante mortem data collection, and research of mass and clandestine graves.  Click here to apply for the next cycle. The deadline to apply is August 31September 15, 2014.

Applicants from all disciplines are welcome. Participation in the field school represents a fundamental experience for anybody interested in post-conflict studies, peace studies, human rights, forensics, transitional justice, memory, gender, or any related subject.

From 1969 to 1991, president and military dictator Siad Barre oversaw a campaign of widespread atrocities that decimated Somali civil society. To quash separatist movements in the 1980s, the Somali Armed Forces targeted civilians in the northwest, modern-day Somaliland, culminating in the bloody 1988 siege of the regional capital Hargeisa, which claimed at least 5,000 civilian lives. In August 2012, U.S. Federal Judge Leonie Brinkema awarded $21 million in compensatory and punitive damages against former Somali General Mohamed Ali Samantar for his role in the slaughter. This judgment marks the first time that any Somali government official has been held accountable for the atrocities perpetrated under that regime.

» For more information and an application, click here.  If you have any questions regarding this field school, please email EPAF at: fieldschool@epafperu.org

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About the Center for Justice and Accountability

The Center for Justice and Accountability is an international human rights organization dedicated to deterring torture and other severe human rights abuses around the world and advancing the rights of survivors to seek truth, justice and redress. CJA uses litigation to hold perpetrators individually accountable for human rights abuses, develop human rights law, and advance the rule of law in countries in transition from periods of abuse.  Read more...

About the Peruvian Forensic Anthropology Team

The Peruvian Forensic Anthropology Team (EPAF) is a non-profit organization that promotes the right to truth, justice, and guarantees of non-repetition in cases of forced disappearance and extrajudicial execution. EPAF seeks to contribute to the consolidation of peace and democracy where grave human rights violations have taken place by working alongside the families of the disappeared to find their loved ones, gain access to justice, and improve the conditions affecting their political and economic development.  Read more...