Oil discoveries at the Kenya-Somalia offshore border may increase inter-state armed conflict between the two countries

 

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By Eng. Mahmud Hassan,

East Africa’s coast extends from Somalia in the north, through Kenya and Tanzania, all the way to Mozambique in the south. There are also several islands in between such as Madagascar, Seychelles and Comoros. The recent oil and gas discoveries in East Africa (EA) particularly in Mozambique and Tanzania attracted increasing attention from many international oil and gas companies who desire to get a portion of EA’s offshore resources in order to boost their profits.

As this can influence border disputes however, it can also replicate similar issues where many EA countries have disputes on inland borders and border Lakes such as Lake Albert, Lake Victoria, and Lake Malawi after resources were discovered. Similarly, following the rumours of the existence of natural resources (Oil and gas) in trans-boundary areas between Somalia and Kenya may increase inter-state and armed conflict.

This article reflects what is currently taking place across the Somalia-Kenya offshore border where Kenya recently awarded six oil and gas blocks to the international oil companies (IOC), within Somali offshore territory approximately 120,000 km². As shown in figure1; IOCs from Italy, Norway, USA and France are tended to be exploiting the trans-boundary area.

It was apparent that those greedy alliances’ aim is to plunder Somalia’s offshore hydrocarbon resources and this has become more obvious since Kenya started invading southern Somalia in October 2011 while its allies such as France, Italy and Norway kept quiet about the invasion.

However, after Somalia parliament and Somalia people rejected both governments’ endeavour to reach a deal, some companies such as Anadarko and Statoil have abandoned their transgression wishes.

In addition, Kenya’s supporting the creation of self-autonomous regions across the border called Jubba-land seems to have failed due to the consciousness showed by the Somali government and its’ people. This administration’s denial of Kenya invaded Somalia water reinforced the suspicion that Kenya would like to keep Somalia unstable, preferring a weak Somali government and smaller puppet states within Somalia which would conveniently wanted to allow Kenya to exploit the trans-boundary resources in Somalia’s territorial waters.

Below map shows position of DSDP/ drill sites. Also experts speculated the area in existence of huge amount oil and gas deposit. DSDP site 241, which is the richest drilled well so far in East Africa’s deep water, is located in the Somali basin. If Kenya gets what they want the DSDP well will be on their site while currently situated in Somalia site according to 2009 preliminary information for Somalia continental shelf(see figure2).

Moreover, three blocks awarded to Italy’s ENI are located in this area whilst another three, awarded to US, French and Norwegian IOCs straddle Somali territory (See figure 1). The question is whether ENI and its mafia bosses are looking for a new approach towards Somalia’s offshore or might this be a new form of colonialism in the 21century.

The inner map shows an old colonial map from Maritime Jurisdiction sketched in 1926; the area hatched in blue belongs to Somalia according to ex-colonial map agreed between Italy and British government.

Kenya already patrols this area strictly with its navy forces while they kept pushing its agenda through persuasion to the Somalia government demarcation to reach a deal on maritime.

After several attempts, Kenya failed to convince Somalia to reach a deal whether it is financial or technical delineation. Currently Somalia logged on Court application to the International court of

Justice (ICJ). This court will decide the demarcation line between Somalia and Kenya maritime. Unfortunately, Somalia side even didn’t mention the existence of international colonial border which Britain and Italy agreed on 1926 that should not be changed easily similarly to the inland borders between the two countries.

What Somalia Government doesn’t know is that Kenya built strong alliances including oil companies and many commonwealth countries that are helping Kenya to prepare for its maritime boundary negotiations with Somalia which they also could offer best maritime lawyers. It is all about resources that oil and gas companies should discover oil and gas in Somalia water and want to get it either use by force or other possible methods.

In 2010, according to the Commonwealth website, its secretariat’s maritime boundary specialists held a workshop for government officials to prepare the country for its maritime boundary negotiations with Somalia because “establishing clear maritime boundaries will have important implications for security, shipping, environmental protection, fishing and offshore resource exploration in the region.”

The other question is whether Somalia is going to prepare well in advance or it will be surprised by sudden loss after the final decision hearing and consequently going to war “typically Somali way”.

Other issues related to this boom in EA is that EA’s offshore industry is at a very early stage in its oil and gas development and lacks its own infrastructure, regulations and standards on HSE field such as emergency response, safety training, risk assessment and regulations.

There are many oil and gas companies which are operating in the EA offshore at the present such as Anadarko, ENI, Dominion petroleum, Soma oil, Shell, Tullow, CNOOC, Total, ExxonMobil, Petronas, Canadian Africa Oil Corporation, Norwegian Statoil, BG group and Ophir Energy, Total France and many more. In such exploration and production activities, there are accidents which are related to offshore drilling such as blowouts, fires, oil spillages and other environmental disasters. Thus oil and gas companies operating in such areas where the infrastructure and regulatory regime is undeveloped would arguably be unable to respond if a major accident strikes offshore the East African region. For instance, if major accidents similar to Piper Alpha in the North Sea or the Gulf of Mexico oil spill were to occur in this young, undeveloped area the damage would be beyond belief since the region is currently a new frontier and lacks infra structure and good regulatory system.

References

1. Thomson, C., 2011. Oil explorers push boundaries of political, geological risk. The financial times
2. Coffin, M. F., Lemont-Dehort , Robinowitz, P. D., 1982. A Multichannel Seismic Transect of the Somalian Continental Margin. GTC 4259
3. Wadhams, N., 2010. Is east Africa the next frontier for oil? Time, 10 March 2010
4. Beckman, J. 2011. Mozambique wells reveal major frontier gas province. Offshore magazine.
5. OILWATCH AFRICA, May 2010. Oil Production in Africa: Livelihoods and Environment at Stake: Should Oil Rather Remain in the Ground?.
6. East Africa community secretariat, 2008. Strategy for the development of regional refineries.
7. Reuters, 2012. Kenya, Somalia border row threatens oil exploration. April 20, 2012.
8. Okumo, W. 2010. Resources and border disputes in East Africa. Journal of East Africa studies (2), pp.279-297.
9. Matchette-Downes C. & Cameron N.,2005 .Now is the time for East Africa
10. Weeden, S. 2011. East Africa Boasts Newest Gas Bonanzas. E&P
11. Duey, R., 2009. Black Marlin sails to new play. Epmag

Author: Mahmud Hassan Mohammed,
MBA oil and gas management and MSc engineering
Contacts: xamuud@gmail.com

Egyptian, Sudanese officials visit site of controversial Ethiopian dam in Ethiopia

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia –  The Ethiopian News Agency says Egypt's irrigation minister has toured the site in western Ethiopia where the country is building a controversial dam on the Blue Nile River.

The Ethiopian agency said Monday that Hossam El-Moughazi's visit Sunday marked the first time that an Egyptian official has been able to visit the site of the $4.2 billion hydro-electric project named the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia are currently holding talks aimed at reducing tension over the dam. Ethiopian officials have previously said they have arrested Egyptian citizens who allegedly entered the country illegally and tried to reach the site of the dam.

Egypt reportedly fears that the dam will diminish its share of the Nile, which provides almost all of the desert nation's water needs.

The Demise of al-Shabaab Leader: End of the Game?

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  By Abukar Sanei-CfPAR

  The U.S. airstrike operation that was carried out on the first day of September successfully targeted Ahmed Godane, the leader of al-Shabaab in Somalia. The result of this operation has been welcomed by Somali leaders and the activists in social media as a progress that is made toward the “eradication” of Somalia’s extremist group. The news of the demise of Godane came only on Friday, September 5 when the Pentagon’s press secretary, Rear Adm. John Kirby, confirmed the death in a brief written statement. In addition, President Barack Obama, speaking at the conclusion of a NATO summit in Newport, Wales, said the successful U.S. strike was an example of his administration’s determination to hit back at terrorists. Likewise, a press statement released by the White House stated that Godane’s removal is a major symbolic and operational loss to the largest al-Qaida affiliate in Africa and reflects years of painstaking work by our intelligence, military and law enforcement professionals. On the other hand, the Facebook Page of Villa Somalia stated that US forces conducted the airstrike with the full knowledge and agreement of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS). This, the statement continued, is an international battle against the scourge of terrorism and the government and the people of Somalia greatly value the support of our international allies whether it is direct intervention such as on this occasion or longer term capacity building through the training and equipping our reconstituting Somali security forces.

  Moreover, the Somali government thanked the US government and individuals in the Somali security forces that helped the operation. The fact that I need to underline here is that getting rid of the most senior leader of al-Shabaab is a welcoming development for Somalia and the region as well as the international community. However, the hard question is whether the demise of Ahmed Godane is an indication of the end of the game.

  The death of Godane will not be the end of the game for al-Shabaab in Somalia. Under the leadership of Godane, though weakened, al-Shabaab had been active waging their guerrilla urban warfare for the last three years since they were “ousted” from Mogadishu. They successfully attacked Villa Somalia twice; the Parliament and the UN compound in Mogadishu in addition to other suicide bombings and planed assassinations. This has been the case and will be the case, because al-Shabaab is a group that is based on ideology, not individuals. The group will continue targeting the young Somalis who are susceptible to the calls of extremism from inside and the diaspora. Those brainwashed young Somalis will keep carrying out the activities that the group has been using to dismantle the progress made so far for state-building and governance. If Godane is gone, another successor will come and continue the work. In fact, the group selected the successor of Godane on Saturday, September 06, 2014. As reported by AP, the successor’s name is Abu Ubeid Ahmed Omar. The question would be how the successor will be different from Godane’s ruthless leadership. The only difference that might be expected to happen is how the group is willing to lay down its arms, and negotiate for political participation. I am not expecting this will be carried out by the newly selected senior leadershipof the group, but the junior level leaders can take this route. Col. Hassan Dahir Aweys, the former leader of Hizb al Islam, has defected from the group after clashes with Godane on the way the group operates. It is an open question whether Col. Aweys, who is now under the “custody” of the Somali government, totally rejects the use of violence to gain power. Moreover, Mohamed Said (Atom), who used to fight in the Galagala area in northeast Somalia, has recently surrendered himself to the Somali government.

  Alternative Actions

  There are four main alternative actions that need to take place. First, as al-Shabaab is driven by an ideology found from misinterpreted and twisted quotes of the Islamic teachings, it is the job of Somali religious scholars to prove the group wrong. The phenomenon of religious extremism and the culture of suicide are new to the Somali people. The religious scholars inside and the diaspora need to collaborate effectively to uprooting this new phenomenon, and to gain the hearts and the minds of the young Somalis who may have passion for their faith, but somehow manipulated by those with sinister agendas.

  The second alternative is to pinpoint where the financial and military support of the group come from. The financial and military support that the group receives is the only lifeline that helps them to continue their operation in Somalia and the region. The group is equipped with machine guns and ammunition, and the investigation that needs to be carried out is to clearly identify who are the suppliers. This is a mission that needs to be tackled by the Somali government, AMISOM forces and the international community. As long as the group is funded financially and supported militarily, they will continue their operation in and outside of Somalia.

  The third alternative action that needs to take place is creating opportunities for the young Somalis who are trapped by the misguided interpretation of Islam. Whether it is the piracy [though it has greatly diminished] off the coast of Somalia or the extremism, the young Somalis who engage these activities have failed to see any other alternatives for their future. For the last two decades, the young generation who was born in 1990s has only seen violence whether it is by the warlords or religious extremists. The private education systems that started after the fall of the last government in 1991, though they filled the vacuum, were only for those who could have afforded to pay the fees. As a result, many families who remained inside the country could not afford to send their children to school. Therefore, four options were left for the children of those families: one, fight for the warlords; two, join the pirates; three, be recruited by the extremists; and four, be a victim for smugglers and die in the deep ocean or survive to end up somewhere else as a refugee. In order to confront extremism, the young Somalis must be given free education and other life skills so that they can see a bright future for themselves.

  The fourth alternative action is that combating against al-Shabaab and the overall security of Somalia must be owned by Somalis. Using unmanned vehicles from time to time will not completely solve the threat of al-Shabaab to Somalia and the horn of African region. The Somali security forces must be nationalized, and equipped with necessary knowledge of security and the power machines that they need to employ for the war against al-Shabaab.

  The demise of al-Shabaab leader will greatly diminish the spirit of the group, but it doesn’t mean the ideology that thrusts the group will vanish easily. The Somali religious scholars need to double their efforts against extremism, and opportunities for education and employment must be created for the young exploited Somalis.

Somalia FSomalia Facing Famine Despite U.S. Role and Oil Wealthacing Famine Despite U.S. Role and Oil Wealth

Failure to reach political settlement hinders development and relief

 

By Abayomi Azikiwe

Global Research, September 16, 2014

Pan African News Wire

 

Early in September United States President Barack Obama announced that he had carried out a targeted assassination killing the leader of the Al-Shabaab Islamic resistance organization in Somalia which has been fighting against the Federal Government and a regional military force for over six years.

In a matter of days Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for retaliatory attacks against two convoys of African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) troops operating alongside high-ranking U.S. military intelligence personnel and representatives of a consultancy firm which advises the government in Mogadishu on counterinsurgency methods against Al-Shabaab. These attacks resulted in the deaths of at least twelve people including four from the U.S.

The attacks against AMISOM and the U.S. military personnel did not gain wide press coverage in the western corporate media. The Wall Street Journal carried a story indicating the strategic nature of the imperialist interventions in Somalia where oil and other interests are being exploited.

Amid the existence of the AMISOM forces numbering 22,000, which are funded, trained and coordinated by the Pentagon, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the European Union forces (EUFOR), another famine is looming inside this nation. Leading humanitarian agencies concerned with food security have reported over the last several months that millions of people in Somalia are threatened with starvation.

Other than providing additional weaponry, military training and diplomatic support for the fractured federal government in Mogadishu, the U.S. State Department has no plans aimed at reaching any degree of a political settlement inside the country. AMISOM troops have been operating in Somalia since 2007 and today soldiers are deployed from Uganda, Burundi, Sierra Leone, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya and other states.

Tensions and disputes have developed surrounding the large-scale western-funded occupation of Somalia by the AMISOM forces. In the southern region of the country, forces outside of Al-Shabaab have complained about the dominance of Kenya through its Defense Forces in the internal politics in the area.

Allegations of abuse of women by AMISOM troops have been reported. Although the so-called peacekeeping operation is endorsed by the United Nations, the key players in the occupation are Washington and its NATO allies.

Food Insecurity Reflects Failed U.S. Foreign Policy in East Africa

While providing introductory remarks for the Somalia Food Security Results survey, Phillipe Lazarrini, the United Nations humanitarian director for Somalia, stressed that “It is terrible to think that with almost 2.9 million people in need in Somalia, the aid appeal is only 30 per cent funded with $658 million still needed to end 2014.” (NTV Uganda, Sept. 11)

The Somalian country director for the World Food Program noted that food shortages in the country are expected to become more critical during the next few months principally due to insufficient rains, the burgeoning conflict between the government, AMISOM and Al-Shabaab prompting the rise in food prices. “We have scaled up to meet growing needs, but funding shortages meant the organization risked running short of vital supplies by September, leaving us with no alternative than to reduce food assistance to most vulnerable — IDPs and malnourished children,” Mr Bukera said. (NTV Uganda, Sept. 11)

In fact this problem is not confined to Somalia but is regional throughout the Horn of Africa which encompasses Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and sections of Sudan. Throughout the region of the entire East Africa, there is a strong U.S. military presence and several allied regimes which play an integral role in carrying out Washington’s foreign policy imperatives.

On Sept. 15 the regional dimensions of the crisis was highlighted during a joint press conference between representatives of the UN and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), an East African organization. Fighting has escalated in southern Somalia, South Sudan and unrest has taken place in Kenya as well since 2013.

In the combined statement delivered in Nairobi, UN Assistant Secretary- General for Humanitarian Affairs Kyung-Wha Kang, and Mahboub Maalim, Executive Secretary of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), stressed the need for urgent funding to assist 14 million people facing food insecurity in the region. “Displacement in Horn of Africa stands at an estimated 6.8 million people and 14 million people are food insecure, yet funding has remained at half of the appeal,” Kang said. (Xinhua, Sept. 15)

Somalia Oil and Other Resources Exploited by the West

All of the affected states throughout the Horn of Africa and the entire East Africa region contain oil, natural gas and other strategic resources. Without persistent conflict largely engineered by the U.S. and other imperialist states, the people in these territories would have adequate food and other resources to raise their standard of living.

With specific reference to Somalia, the exploration and drilling of oil is well underway in the breakaway region of Puntland in the North with one of the leading firms being Africa Oil Corp. based in Canada. Prospecting for oil is also taking place in another breakaway region of Somaliland.

Despite these economic projects, the peace and security of Somalia remains elusive. In Somaliland, the government has accused a Norway petroleum firm of deliberately destabilizing the country.

The Somaliland Petroleum ministry said that oil firms are signing multiple contracts and negotiating agreements with regional governments which are only “adding fire to conflicts.

These small companies are destabilizing the country and destroying the international community’s effort to build the peace and the security of the country,” the ministry added.

This same ministry singled out Norway’s DNO, charging the company with “planning to introduce armed militiamen in areas already in conflict and thereby stoking old feuds which resulted in internal displacement and harming the innocent and the most vulnerable people”. (Reuters, Sept. 3)

“We are warning those companies that the Somali government will lodge complaints with their respective countries and the United Nations Security Council,” the ministry added. Leading petroleum firms have claimed interests in Somalia oil resources even prior to the 1991-92 initial interventions by the UN and the U.S.

Somalian governmental officials in August met with representatives of Exxon-Mobil, Conoco, Phillips, Chevron, and BP for the first time since 1991. The federal government said it wanted these firms to propose a scheduled return to Somalia.

 

Counselor Thomas A. Shannon's Travel to Mogadishu, Somalia, on September 14

Media Note

Office of the Spokesperson

Washington, DC

September 15, 2014

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The Counselor of the Department, Thomas A. Shannon, visited Mogadishu on September 14. He was joined by Special Representative for Somalia James P. McAnulty and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor Steven J. Feldstein. In meetings with senior government officials and representatives of the international community, he reiterated the commitment of the United States to Somalia’s security and development. With President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud and Prime Minister Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed he discussed the latest military and political developments, including the successful strike against al-Shabaab leader Ahmed Abdi Godane and the military campaign by the Somali National Army (SNA) and African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) against al-Shabaab’s remaining strongholds. Additionally, the Counselor was briefed by representatives of the Somali cabinet and representatives of the international community on state-building initiatives, including judicial development, reconciliation in recently-liberated areas, and preparations for the 2015 review of the Constitution and the 2016 elections.

Scottish independence rattles China, Spain and others

The debate over Scottish independence has raised concerns in a number of countries where there are ongoing disputes over independence.

Some papers have discussed fears that a split from the union could spark an independence movement in small countries elsewhere. There have also concerns raised as to whether constitutional links amongst Commonwealth countries might be affected.

Chinese concerns

China, in particular is worried that the Scottish referendum might rekindle debates over Xinjiang, Tibet and Taiwan.

China has expressed surprise that London would even consider allowing the UK to break up. Furthermore its Premier Li Keqiang has said he wants to see the United Kingdom remain "united", adding that he believed the UK could "stay at the forefront in leading the world's growth and development".

His reply should not have come as a surprise. It reflects Beijing's worry about any independence movement, even one half way round the world.

Whilst the Scots are being offered a vote to determine their future, in China any talk of separation is regarded as treason and could result in a lengthy jail sentence.

Beijing has launched a huge security crackdown against what it calls Uighur separatists in the western region of Xinjiang. And in Tibet tensions still exist more than 50 years after China 'liberated' the territory and imposed Chinese rule.

Meanwhile the island of Taiwan has been threatened with invasion should they declare formal independence [BBC / BBC].

Chinese media response

Whilst China's state run news agency has been unable to avoid reporting the news surrounding Scottish independence, official responses have been somewhat muted.

When asked whether China would veto any application to the UN following independence, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson responded by saying that Scotland's independence referendum was "an internal matter of the UK."

"China has no comment on that," the spokesperson added [Xinhua]. While China claims not to have an opinion, its reporting has been very much biased towards the 'No' campaign. Articles in the last few days all point to the negative effects that independence would bring.

Oil tycoons voice opposition against Scottish independence, Salmond tries to disperse concern over financial consequences from "Yes" vote, Scottish vote for independence would change political map of remaining UK: expert, and Latest poll shows "No" backers exceed "Yes" over Scotland's independencewere just some of the headlines, an indication that China's view was very much that of PM David Cameron that the UK would be better off working together.

Some media has gone further though, suggesting that the remaining union would become a third-rate nation should Scotland depart. The Beijing News roundly mocked the idea of a divided Britain, saying that the country would lose its status as a "world centre of politics, economics and culture".

The Global Times and the People's Daily, both Chinese state run newspapers, also suggested that the UK would fall from "a first-class country to a second-class one" and that David Cameron would "become a 'sinner' of history for the UK".

Chinese language newspapers and websites were even more vocal. The China Daily, Xinhua and the Global Times all talked of the risks of separatism and said China could not "afford to play this British game"

Meanwhile China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, deputy director Wang Shuo said Scottish independence would "establish a bad precedent" whilst the Global Times said "any step towards separatism can provoke a chain reaction" [Telegraph].

Spanish worries

It's not just China who is worried about the Scottish referendum. The independence debate has sparked discussions in Spain where Catalonia has sought independence for many years.

Some 1.8 million separatists in northeastern Spain have staged mass protests across Catalonia to demand a secession vote deemed illegal by Spanish government. "The UK is willing to let Scotland vote and Catalonia is refused that right by the Spanish," says Liz Castro, an author and publisher who divides her time between Massachusetts and Barcelona. "Catalans look to the Scotland-UK question with a sense of envy and admiration."

Despite the protests, a 'Yes' vote in Scotland won't change anything since the Spanish Government will maintain that the Constitution prohibits any consultation or referendum in an autonomous community [Telegraph / Guardian / US Today]

Other separatist movements

Europe has dozens of separatist movements and it is possible that some could stir should the Scottish referendum swing towards independence. In the far west of England there exists a strong nationalistic movement seeking the devolution of Cornwall from the rest of the UK.

Across the rest of Asia as well as China, separatist may become more emboldened. There are dozens of regions disputed by separatists, nationalists and state bodies. The same is true in Africa, North andSouth America and other parts of the world.

In some countries, such as China, independence campaigners will simply be beaten back. In others they will simply be ignored. But Scottish devolution has already ignited the touchpaper and it will be hard to extinguish the flame.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

US teen mistaken for ‘White Widow’

Samantha Lewthwaite, the so-called "White Widow", used the name "Natalie Faye Webb" on a fake South African passport.

Nairobi - An American family has been offered an all-expenses-paid trip to Kenya after their vacation was ruined by a policeman who mistook their 15-year-old daughter for an international terrorist.

A statement from the Kenyan government said the teenage holidaymaker was “harassed by police in Mlolongo”, outside the capital Nairobi, “on accusations of looking like” British fugitive Samantha Lewthwaite.

It said Kenya's interior minister, Joseph Ole Lenku, had announced that “the government will sponsor a fully-paid holiday for the family” as compensation and that police were also investigating the incident.

Lewthwaite, known as the “White Widow”, was married to Germaine Lindsay, one of four Islamist suicide bombers who attacked the London transport network on July 7, 2005, killing 52 people.

The 30-year-old Muslim convert has been linked to Somalia's al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Shabaab rebels, who have launched a string of attacks in Kenya, including the assault on Nairobi's Westgate shopping mall that claimed at least 67 lives a year ago.

She is wanted in Kenya on charges of being in possession of explosives and conspiracy to commit a felonydating back to December 2011, and is the subject of an Interpol “red notice” warrant for her detention issued at Kenya's request.

There has been no confirmed sighting since she gave Kenyan police the slip in Mombasa in 2011, reportedly using her false South African passport, and last month Kenyan detectives hunting her said the trail had gone cold. - AFP