Al Shabab's Last Stand?

Last week’s deadly U.S. strike on Ahmed Abdi Godane, the leader of the Somalia-based Islamist militant group al Shabab, could be the group’s undoing. Although the organization was quick to name a successor, Godane’s death has thrown it into disarray, casting serious doubts on its future. Although that augurs well for Somalia, the region is not out of the woods. Al Shabab’s extremist ideology has already taken root across East Africa. Without further action against al Shabab and groups like it, militant Islam will only spread further.  

LEADERLESS JIHAD

For years, al Shabab was guided by a small council of leaders who formed the group’s strategy and appointed its emir. That started to change with Godane, also known as Abu Zubayr, who was chosen as the top leader in 2008. He ruled the militant group like a dictator, marginalizing the council, crushing internal dissent, and even killing rivals.

In the process of consolidating power, Godane created the Amniyat, a trusted group of hardcore loyalists whose tasks varied from assassinating dissenters to directing high-profile attacks on Somali government installations, allied troops, and foreign targets. He made particular use of this much-feared force during abitter struggle with other top al Shabab leaders, which played out on social media in 2012 and 2013. Amniyat forces conducted a series of mafia-style executions of nearly all of Godane’s critics, including Ibrahim al-Afghani, the co-founder of al Shabab, a man who would have been an ideal successor. Eventually, Godane’s growing authoritarianism embittered nearly all the other senior leaders -- or, at least the ones who were still alive. And by fall of last year, Godane was alone at the top with no potential deputy or successor in sight.

With the head of this autocracy now dead, and other senior leaders either marginalized, arrested, in hiding, or executed, the chances that al Shabab will live on as a cohesive force are marginal at best.

With the head of this autocracy now dead, and other senior leaders either marginalized, arrested, in hiding, or executed, the chances that al Shabab will live on as a cohesive force are marginal at best. The chosen successor, Ahmed Umar, also known as Abu Ubaidah, is essentially unknown and is unlikely to possess the charisma, strategic intelligence, or rhetorical ability needed to bind the fractious group. The deceased leader possessed all these qualities and was adulated by many. His frequent audio and written messages, which made use of poetry and inspirational religious verses, went a long way toward keeping all al Shabab members, with their varying backgrounds and outlooks on jihad, in line and fighting together.

These are dark days for al Shabab on another front as well. Still recovering from major territorial losses in Somalia over the past two years, al Shabab now faces Operation Indian Ocean, a new ground offensive of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). The offensive aims to deprive the militant group of its main financing streams, in particular the illicit coal trade, and access to key ports. Although previous AMISOM offensives have proven lackluster, Operation Indian Ocean has a qualitatively different feel, with more advanced planning and tighter coordination with the United States and others. In only a few weeks since the operation began, AMISOM has already pushed al Shabab back on a number of fronts.

Understanding, perhaps, that al Shabab is on the ropes, the day after the missile strike killed Godane, Mogadishu declared a 45-day amnesty for al Shabab members willing to surrender. It has made a number of similar offers in the past, with mixed results. But with continuing losses on the battlefield, a new AMISON offensive, shrinking finances, and now the death of their charismatic leader, the calculations among the rank-and-file are likely to rapidly change. Although some might surrender, many others will melt into the population undetected.

Of course, desperation can lead to more violence: In the past few months, al Shabab has staged a number of spectacular attacks, including suicide commando raids on Somalia’s parliament, presidential palace, and intelligence ministry. With Godane dead, Ahmed Umar will undoubtedly look to prove the skeptics wrong and unleash a series of attacks against the government in Mogadishu. But at this point, the real question is how long he and his remaining loyalists will be able to sustain the onslaught before their group meets its ultimate fate.

EXTREME PROBLEMS

Al Shabab’s demise would be a good thing, of course, but it would not necessarily spell the end of terrorism in the region. Al Shabab’s extremist ideology has been steadily gaining ground in surrounding countries, and little has been done to address the problem. Facing a lack of opportunity, corrupt governments, and religious and ethnic marginalization, susceptible East Africans have had few reasons not to adopt extremist views.

The problem is nowhere more apparent than in Somalia’s neighbor Kenya. For years, al Shabab has been working to create a permanent foothold there, and thus far, the government has proved its own worst enemy in attempting to reverse this trend. Security forces’ blatant targeting of Muslims and brutal tactics have created inroads for extremism in communities that feel abused and fearful of their government. As a result, hundreds, if not thousands, of Kenyans have been recruited by al Shabaab over the years. Al Shabab’s continued attacks in the country have also successfully pitted Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta against his rival Raila Odinga in a game of political brinkmanship that could plunge Kenya into ethnic conflict -- exactly the kind of toxic environment in which a group like al Shabab can thrive.                                                                                                  

Extremist groups have also been making steady advances in Tanzania. Islamists have seized on the simmering issue of Zanzibar’s independence and successfully hardened perceptions that Muslims are a beleaguered minority on the mainland. Bombings and acid attacks are becoming more common events, and a few startling incidents, such as the discovery of an al Shabab training camp in Mtwara, suggest Tanzania may soon share Kenya’s troubles. The list does not end there: Al Shabab-related activity is also on the rise in Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Uganda.

Although Godane’s death has destabilized al Shabab and associated groups in the immediate future, in the long run, it may increase the extremist threat in East Africa. Without Godane’s direction, it would not be surprising if extremists across the region start looking elsewhere for inspiration and guidance. There is no extremist group with more power and allure at the moment than the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS, also known as the Islamic State). Its military successes in Iraq and Syria and its realization of a caliphate have created a compelling model of jihad for Sunnis around the world. Inspired by ISIS, East African jihadists could step up violence in the region, potentially trying to create a caliphate of their own, much like the Nigeria-based Boko Haram did last month.   

Regional leaders have finally (although belatedly) recognized the need to act. Intelligence chiefs from across the continent met in Nairobi on August 25 and declared that terrorism is the greatest threat facing Africa and can only be countered if politicians rid their countries of corruption, marginalization, poverty, and unemployment. At an East Africa police chiefs conference two days later,Kenyatta declared that terrorism could only be defeated if countries worked in unison. These meetings are encouraging, but follow-through is critical. For a guide, leaders should look to the three-fold approach in Somalia: eliminating leaders; depriving combatants of operational space and funds; and bringing disaffected individuals into the governmental fold.

Godane’s death provides a unique opportunity for allied forces to press the advantage against al Shabab and potentially deliver a decisive blow. It gives East African governments a window of time to implement new policies to address the core reasons behind radicalization. And that is what they must do. If not, al Shabab may die but militant Islam will live on.

Freedom Fighters/Separatists Around the World Draw Inspiration From Scotland

By KATRIN BENNHOLD

STEENOKKERZEEL, Belgium — For Kurt Ryon, the mayor of Steenokkerzeel, a Flemish village 10 miles northeast of Brussels, watching the Scottish independence campaign in the final days before the referendum is like watching a good game of soccer. “They were losing for the first half and most of the second half,” he said, “but now we’re in the 85th minute and they could be winning.”

Mr. Ryon, who wants his native Flanders to split from Belgium, is rooting for Scotland to do the same from Britain, and like a faithful soccer fan he has all the gear: a T-shirt from the Scottish pro-independence “yes” campaign, a collection of “yes” pins on his denim jacket and copious amounts of a beer specially brewed by Flemish nationalists to express their solidarity. The label says “Ja!” next to a Scottish flag, Flemish for yes.

From Catalonia to Kurdistan, nationalist and separatist movements inEurope and beyond are watching the Scottish independence referendum closely — sometimes more so than Britons themselves, who seem to have only just woken up to the possibility that Scotland might vote next Thursday to bring to an end a 307-year union. A curious collection of left and right, rich and poor, marginal and mainstream, these movements are united in the hope that their shared ambition for more self-determination will get a lift from an independent Scotland.

PLAY VIDEO|1:44

Scotland’s Debate: Stay Big or Go Small

On Sept. 18, Scotland is scheduled to vote on seceding from Britain. We take a look at the issues at stake for the Scottish people.

In the separatist-minded Basque Country, an autonomous community in northern Spain, the leader of the governing nationalist party has been known to dress up in a Scottish kilt and jokes that Basques would rather be part of an independent Scotland than remain part of Spain, which has ruled out any kind of vote. In Veneto, a region of northern Italy, nationalists have held a Scottish-inspired online referendum and now claim that 9 in 10 inhabitants want autonomy.

Busloads of Catalans, South Tiroleans, Corsicans, Bretons, Frisians and “Finland-Swedes” are headed for Scotland to witness the vote. Even Bavaria (which calls itself “Europe’s seventh-largest economy”) is sending a delegation.

“It would create a very important precedent,” said Naif Bezwan of Mardin Artuklu University in the Kurdish part of Turkey. Across the Iraqi border (“the Kurdish-Kurdish border,” as Mr. Bezwan puts it), where a confluence of war, oil disputes and political turmoil has renewed the debate about secession, Kurds pine for the opportunity of a Scottish-style breakup. “Everyone here is watching,” said Hemin Lihony, the web manager at Rudaw, Kurdistan’s largest news organization, based in Erbil, Iraq.

History offers few examples of nations splitting up in a consensual way. The velvet divorce between the Czechs and the Slovaks in 1993 is one, the Norwegian referendum on independence from Sweden in 1905 another. But mostly, nation states go to war over their borders.

America fought a civil war to preserve the union. Turkey fought Kurdish nationalists for decades and still denies them the right to Kurdish-languageeducation. Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia — a status still not recognized by some countries — only after a war in the 1990s.

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who annexed Crimea in March after a stealth invasion and a referendum there, and who has been accused of aggressively aiding separatists in eastern Ukraine, has happily supported Scotland’s independence bid. But his attachment to self-determination is highly selective: In the Russian republics of Chechnya and Dagestan, he has deployed savage force to crush Muslim separatists seeking to break from Russia.

In some cases, the referendum in Scotland is fueling new hopes, however improbable, among separatist fringe groups. When the president of the Texas Nationalist Movement, Daniel Miller, was invited to the University of Stirling in Scotland this year, he said the Scots were paving the way for an independent Texas. “Scottish independence is a study in the very same debates that will take place in Texas ahead of the binding referendum on independence that is in our future,” Mr. Miller said.

In others, it is re-energizing long-running debates with considerable geopolitical importance. In Taiwan, which China claims as part of its territory even though Taiwan is effectively independent with its own currency, military and democratically elected government, some hope that a Scottish “yes” vote could trigger a more careful deliberation over the island’s future.

Wang Dan, a student leader in the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests in Beijing, wrote in a recent column for Taiwan’s Apple Daily, “If the Scottish vote succeeds, it will be worth considering by those who advocate deciding Taiwan’s status through a referendum.”

But it is in Europe that a Scottish “yes” vote would likely create the largest ripples.

It would be the first time that a member of the European Union faces secession by one of its regions. If Scotland succeeds in negotiating its own membership in the bloc, as even opponents of independence predict that it eventually would, it would suddenly make the prospect of independence seem safer and more attractive elsewhere on the Continent, said George Robertson, a former secretary general of NATO.

“There is a serious risk of a domino effect,” said Mr. Robertson, himself a Scot and an opponent of independence. A “yes” vote, he warned, could trigger “the Balkanization of Europe.”

Nationalists, however, say that a bit of Balkanization may be just what Europe needs.

In the slightly dilapidated Brussels office of the European Free Alliance, which groups together 40 parties representing Europe’s “stateless nations,” a busy map shows what Europe would look like if they all became independent.

François Alfonsi, the president of the alliance and a proud Corsican, admits that it would be messy, but “democracy is messy and democracy is what Europe needs.”

National self-determination, he said, “is about bringing policies closer to the people.”

Across town, Mark Demesmaeker, a Flemish member of the European Parliament who has decorated his office with a Scottish flag and keeps a copy of the Scottish white paper on independence on his desk, speaks of “failed nation states.”

In his view, Britain has failed to give the Scots and Welsh proper representation in Parliament, and Spain has failed to deliver democracy to Catalans and Basques eager to have their own independence vote.

Other nations, like France and Italy, have been mired in political and economic stagnation. Mr. Demesmaeker’s own country, Belgium, cannot even form a government. (Belgium had elections in May and is still deep in coalition talks; the last time it took 541 days.)

Pro-European national movements like his own, the New Flemish Alliance — now the biggest party not just in Flanders but in all of Belgium — are the best antidote to the far-right, anti-European and anti-immigrant nationalist movements that did so well in European elections earlier this year, he said.

“If Scotland votes ‘yes,’ it will be an eye opener for many people on the street,” he said. “Most people think it’s our fate to be part of Belgium. But Flanders could be a prosperous nation. It’s a democratic evolution that is going on in different states of the European Union. Eventually we want Flanders to take its place in the E.U.”

If plenty of nationalists have pledged their solidarity with Scotland, the reverse has been less true. The Scottish referendum takes place just days before the regional government of Catalonia is expected to confirm that it will hold an independence vote of its own on Nov. 9, which would override legal and political objections from Madrid.

Alfred Bosch, a Catalan lawmaker, said his counterparts in Scotland had shown little interest in being associated with events in Catalonia.

The Scots “probably want to distance themselves from anything that they see as not as ripe and as mature as their own process,” Mr. Bosch suggested. “They don’t want to create any hostility from Spain or other countries that might also have pro-independence movements,” not least because those governments will have to recognize an independent Scotland and consider whether to allow it into the European Union.

Whatever the outcome of next week’s referendum, many nationalists say Scotland has already won.

“They have the opportunity to decide their own future,” said Andoni Ortuzar, the president of the governing Basque Nationalist Party, who wore a kilt in the 2012 carnival to celebrate the announcement of a Scottish referendum that year.

“That’s what national self-determination is,” he said. “That’s all we ask.”

-------------------

Azam Ahmed contributed reporting from Erbil, Iraq; Raphael Minder from Madrid; and Austin Ramzy from Taipei, Taiwan.

Somalia Extremist Group Names New Leader

Saturday after confirming the killing of their previous leader by a U.S. airstrike, a commander of the group said.

The Somali militants unanimously selected Ahmad Umar, also known as Abu Ubaidah, at a meeting in an undisclosed location in Somalia, said rebel commander Abu Mohammed.

Al-Shabab also stated that it remains aligned with al-Qaida, according to the Site IntelligenceGroup, that monitors statements by Islamic militant groups.

There had been speculation that al-Shabab would be shaken by a power struggle over the selection of a new leader and that perhaps the Somali rebels would change alliance and become allied to the Islamic State group.

The Somali group had to appoint a new leader following the death of Ahmed Abdi Godane who was killed with two other officials by a U.S. airstrike Monday. The attack took place 105 miles (170 kilometers) south of Mogadishu, where al-Shabab trains its fighters.

"Avenging the death of our scholars and leader is a binding obligation on our shoulders that we will never relinquish nor forget no matter how long it takes," said the al-Shabab statement, according to Site.

President Barack Obama confirmed Friday that Godane was killed by the U.S. airstrike. The U.S. State Department declared al-Shabab a terrorist organization in February 2008.

Godane was also known as Mukhtar Abu Zubeyr and was the spiritual leader of the al-Qaida-linked group. The U.S. had offered a reward of up to $7 million for information leading to his arrest. Godane had publicly claimed al-Shabab was responsible for last year's deadly Westgate Mall attack in Nairobi, Kenya, that left 67 people dead one year ago.

Somalia's government said Friday night that it has credible intelligence al-Shabab is planning attacks in retaliation for Godane's death.

In a televised speech, Gen. Khalif Ahmed Ereg, Somalia's national security minister, said possible targets include medical and educational institutions. Ereg said the government is vigilant and its armed forces are prepared to prevent such attacks.

The killing of Godane was a "delightful victory," said Ereg. He called on militants still fighting for al-Shabab to surrender to get a "brighter" life from the government.

Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta Saturday thanked the U.S. for killing Godane, saying his death provides "a small measure of closure" for victims of the Westgate Mall attack. Kenyatta's nephew and his fiance died in that attack, a year ago this month.

Godane, who used a number of other aliases, led the planning and was responsible for the perpetration of the attack on Westgate, Kenyatta said.

"We owe the United States, and its soldiers, our heartfelt thanks for bringing an end to Godane'scareer of death and destruction; and finally allowing us to begin our healing," he said.

"His death is a stark reminder that those who live by the sword shall perish by the sword," Kenyatta said.

Al-Shabab has vowed to revenge the presence of Kenyan troops in Somalia. Kenyan troops went into Somalia in October 2011 to fight al-Shabab, which is blamed for cross-border attacks and kidnappings of westerners on Kenyan soil.

Kenya later became part of the African Union force that is bolstering Somalia's weak U.N.-backed government against al-Shabab's insurgency.

The U.S. State Department declared al-Shabab a terrorist organization in February 2008.

———

Associated Press Writer Tom Odula contributed to this report from Nairobi, Kenya

If Shabaab chief Godane is dead, East Africa and the Horn should prepare for the worst

05 SEP 2014 00:45MAIL & GUARDIAN AFRICA SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT

Al-Shabaab’s evolution since 2006 has been such that every major setback led to the rise of a deadly mutant and entrenched the hardcore jihadists.

Young Somalis play at Lido Beach after Al Shabaab withdrew in 2012. ((photo UN/flickr). BELOW a victim of the war in an IDP camp: The situation could get better for everyone--but there's also an off-chance it could deterioriate .

THERE is intense speculation in Somalia and beyond about whether a US drone strike on an Al-Shabaab convoy near the southern Somali coastal town of Barawe on Monday, September 1, killed the Somali militant group’s Emir (supreme leader) Ahmed Abdi Godane.

The Americans are hedging, and Somali intelligence and African Union sources in Mogadishu suggested to  Mail & Guardian Africa that Godane survived the attack. However, were it to turn out that the Americans indeed got the Shabaab chief, it would be a big blow for the hardline factions within Al-Shabaab, and, potentially, likely to trigger a power struggle and further fragmentation.

But the jury is out on whether it marks a turning point in the struggle against militant jihadism in Somalia and the Horn, as many hope.

If the recent history of Islamist militancy and jihadism is any guide, the likelihood of amore militant leadership emerging followed by an upsurge in jihadi violence inside Somalia and East Africa should not be discounted.

Deadly mutant

Al-Shabaab’s evolution since 2006 has been one of progressive radicalisation, and every major setback has only served to make it more violent and entrench the power of the hardcore jihadists.

Could Godane’s death, if confirmed, catalyse further radicalisation and lead to the emergence of a more deadly Al-Shabaab mutant?

That is the fear of many, but there is also dim hope that the combination of renewed military pressure and the death of Godane may create the right context for the vast majority of Al-Shabaab’s non-ideological combatants to surrender.

Operation Indian Ocean

An ambitious military campaign by the 22,000-strong AMISOM troops and the Somali National Army code-named “Operation Indian Ocean” has been under way in central and southern Somalia in the last one month.

Sources have told  Mail &Guardian Africa that he new offensive is “qualitatively different and better coordinated”, with US Special Forces providing crucial logistical support as well as aerial surveillance and satellite intelligence to the African troops.

The joint forces are fighting on multiple fronts and a string of significant towns and villages, such as Tayeglow, Buulo Marer, Goolweyn and Jalaqsi have been recovered from Al-Shabaab.

AMISOM and Somali Army sources say a key strategic objective of the new campaign in the southern axis is to retake the coastal town of Barawe, the last remaining major Al-Shabaab bastion in southern Somalia.

The US drone strike on Monday may have been based on “actionable intelligence” that Godane was in the convoy, as US officials say, but from a purely military perspective, it may have also been a fortuitous piece of luck that could give tactical advantage to the AMISOM troops advancing on Barawe.

The hope of the AMISOM strategists and their Somali allies is that the death will throw the movement into disarray, disrupt its command and control structure and demoralize its fighters.

Olive branch

The Somali Government held an emergency cabinet meeting on Wednesday and declared a 45-day amnesty for Al-Shabaab combatants who surrender voluntarily in a tactical move designed to weaken Al-Shabaab.

The timing of the amnesty is significant and coincides with the imminent assault on Barawe.

And in the wake of Godane’s death, it is plausible a significant number of Al-Shabaab’s combatants may take up the amnesty offer or choose not to put up resistance.

However, the details and terms of the new amnesty are, so far, vague.

The expectation is that the government will in the coming days flesh the details and craft a comprehensive amnesty package that has all the sufficient safeguards and guarantees to make it adequately attractive to those within Al-Shabaab who may see it as a battlefield ruse.

Replacing Godane

Godane has in the last few years been steadily tightening his grip over Al-Shabaab by purging the movement of potential rivals and dissidents, prominent among them senior figures such as Hasan Dahir Aweys and Mukhtar Robow.

There are reports, hard to verify, a number of his close hardline allies were in the convoy that was hit with a US hellfire missile.

They are said to include heavyweights such as Mahad Karate, Sheikh Imbil, Sheikh Abdulqadir Ashkar, Maalin Muse Ibrahim and Sheikh Hassan Yakub.

If true, this would certainly be a huge blow for the hardliners and would, in effect, narrow down the list of potential successors.

There has been a great deal of speculation that Mukhtar Robow, a less hardline figure, may use his reputation as one of the movement’s “historic leadership” to seek to replace Godane.

Robow retreated to his home region of Bay after a bitter falling out with Godane in 2012 and has remained quiet, opting to pursue his military and political goals autonomous of the Godane-led Al-Shabaab.

Experts believe he has the gravitas and mass appeal to win over the broad Al-Shabaab constituency and power base, but is likely to face stiff opposition from the powerful core hardline groups loyal to Godane.

But whether he wants to, no one can tell, at this stage, although the assumption of many is that the death of Godane offers him a chance to make a stab for a leadership comeback.

With no clear successor in line, the future of the jihadi group after Godane would be hard to divine.

For a variety of reasons, not least, Godane’s autocratic and brutal style of leadership, the odds seem heavily stacked against a smooth transition of power. But first, someone will have to produce his body.

-Twitter:@MandGAfrica

Will al-Shabab's New Leader Be as Dangerous as Its Old One?

by GORDON LUBOLD , KATE BRANNEN

The death of al-Shabab leader Ahmed Abdi Godane pushes the counterterrorism fight in Somalia into a new phase, and now U.S. and Somali officials wonder what Godane's possible replacement could mean for the future of the group.

Experts say Godane ruled the group like a tyrant and had killed off several of his likely successors, leaving others at a distance. That raises questions about who might take over for him and how effective that person could be to lead a group that had been seen as an emerging threat in the region.

Hussein Mahmoud Sheikh-Ali, the senior counterterrorism aide to Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, told Foreign Policy on Friday, Sept. 5, that Godane had not created an organization in which a clear successor would be up to the task of replacing him should he be killed.

The two individuals who have already been floated to replace him -- Godane's nominal deputy, Mahad Diriye, and his head of operations, Mahad Karate -- are simply not capable of filling Godane's shoes, Sheikh-Ali said. Neither man is seen as having the education, savvy, or credibility within the organization to pick up where Godane left off.

"Nobody can replace him, and these two people don't have the ability or the capacity to take over this organization going forward," Sheikh-Ali said in a brief interview, adding that Somalia still wants the United States to help his government "finish off" al-Shabab and "end terrorism in Somalia."

U.S. officials, who confirmed Godane's death on Friday, four days after a U.S. airstrike targeted him in the town of Barawe, hailed the militant leader's death, describing it as a significant blow to the organization.

"Removing Godane from the battlefield is a major symbolic and operational loss to al-Shabab," the Pentagon press secretary, Rear Adm. John Kirby, said in a statement. "Shabab is hugely weakened," Sheikh-Ali said.

The group's future relationship with al Qaeda is now uncertain with Godane gone, and some believe that without him, al-Shabab's ambitions to link to the broader network disappears, potentially leaving al-Shabab to slip to a more localized threat characterized more by criminal behavior and illicit trafficking inside Somalia.

"Al-Shabab's emergence as an al Qaeda affiliate has a lot to do with his leadership," a U.S. official said. "Removing Godane from the battlefield doesn't end the threat from al-Shabab, but there's no question it has dealt the group a major setback."

Thomas Joscelyn, senior editor of the Long War Journal, which focuses on U.S. counterterrorism efforts, said there are other al Qaeda loyalists in the group but it's not clear how much power they wield.

He said both Diriye and Karate, who has led the Amniyat, al-Shabab's intelligence and internal security wing, are viable successors and effective leaders.

After days of sifting through various intelligence sources, the Pentagon confirmed that Godane had in fact been killed in Monday's airstrike on a militant position in a rural area of south-central Somalia.

Although there had been widespread confidence that Godane was killed in the strike, U.S. officials were reluctant to confirm that the leader was dead. As foreign intelligence services sought evidence from the site, the U.S. intelligence community was waiting to see whether Godane would start communicating with any of his close associates -- either his wives or senior commanders.

"Everything's gone quiet," a U.S. Defense Department official had told FP on Wednesday.

Previous attempts had Godane resuming communications fairly quickly after being targeted but missed. The defense official said that following a U.S. airstrike on Jan. 26 that killed Sahal Iskudhuq, a senior al-Shabab commander, Godane was up on the Internet within 24 hours.

Immediately after Monday's airstrike in Somalia, Pentagon officials acknowledged the strike and the target -- an unusual move that hinted that American officials were reasonably confident they had succeeded in killing him. After that, though, their confidence seemed to wane. And as recently as Thursday, defense officials said there was no consensus within the intelligence community on whether the strike had actually killed Godane.

Pentagon officials had taken pains to say that no U.S. service members were on the ground near where the strike occurred, which was north of the town of Barawe, where al-Shabab has sought refuge and which is considered a "tough neighborhood" and a perilous place for Western troops. Instead, the United States relied on foreign intelligence services -- mostly Somali -- that had been fighting al-Shabab to relay Godane's status, a defense official told FP.

With little firsthand evidence, the U.S. intelligence community couldn't be sure. Some foreign sources said Godane was dead; others weren't sure.

On Tuesday, the Pentagon provided some of the basic details about the strike. U.S. special operations forces, "working from actionable intelligence" and using manned and unmanned aircraft along with Hellfire missiles and laser-guided munitions, destroyed an encampment and a vehicle, Kirby told reporters in a briefing at the Pentagon on Tuesday. No U.S. troops were on the ground in Somalia before or after the strike, he added.

According to the defense official, three people were killed in the attack, not six as initial press reports indicated.

Shane Harris contributed to this report.

Photo by Mohamed Abdiwahab/AFP/Getty Images

Pentagon confirms al-Shabab leader killed in airstrike in Somalia

By Craig Whitlock 

The Pentagon said Friday that it had confirmed the death of a key Somali militant leader allied with al-Qaeda who had been targeted in a U.S. airstrike earlier this week.

Ahmed Abdi Godane, a co-founder of a network blamed for its brutal tactics in Somalia and for the attack on an upscale Kenyan shopping mall last year, was killed Monday in an attack carried out by U.S. drones and other aircraft, the Pentagon said.

“Removing Godane from the battlefield is a major symbolic and operational loss to al-Shabab,” Rear Adm. John Kirby, the Pentagon press secretary, said in a statement.

U.S. military officials had acknowledged that they were trying to kill Godane in Monday’s air assault on a Shabab compound in southern Somalia. But they had been cautious about asserting the mission was successful, mindful of reports of other al-Qaeda leaders who had been killed in drone attacks, only to resurface later.

The State Department had offered a $7 million reward for information leading to Godane’s arrest. It identified him as a 37-year-old native of northern Somalia who, among other aliases, went by the names Mukhtar Abu Zubeyr and Ahmed Abdi Aw Mohamed.

Monday’s drone strike was the most aggressive U.S. military operation in Somalia in nearly a year, and it came as the Obama administration was already grappling with security crises in Iraq, Syria and Ukraine.

Counterterrorism officials and analysts have described Godane as a particularly ruthless jihadi leader who eliminated several rivals within al-Shabab, either by killing them or forcing them to go underground.

It was unclear who might succeed him as leader of the network. Although al-Shabab often posts comments from the group on social media and gives interviews with journalists in Somalia, it has been mum about whether he survived the airstrike.

Source: washingtonpost.com