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Monday, March 31, 2014

Aminatou Haidar and Kerry Kennedy call for respect of Saharawi people right to self-determination



Washington (USA)  -  Sahrawi human rights activist Aminatou Haidar and President of Robert F. Kennedy Centre for Justice and Human Rights Kerry Kennedy called Thursday in Washington for an effective international engagement  for the respect of human rights of the Sahrawi people violated by Morocco as well as their right to self-determination.
 
Thecall was launched by Aminatou Haidar and Kerry Kennedy during a meeting organized by the African Union Mission in Washington in collaboration with the Robert F. Kennedy Centre in the presence of representatives of the diplomatic corps accredited in Washington, the media and Polisario Front Representative Mohammed Yeslim Beissat.
 
Sahrawi activist Aminatou Haidar said that Morocco continued to commit human rights violations against Saharawi civilians despite the presence of the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in the Western Sahara (MINURSO) the ceasefire in September 1991.
 
For her part, Kerry Kennedy indicated that the persistence of human rights violations was due to the absence of an international mechanism to monitor and report on them, wondering why the MINURSO is the only UN mission which does not include such mechanism. 
 
In her speech, Ambassador of African Union in Washington Amina Salum Ali reiterated the adherence the African Union to its resolutions calling for accelerating the organization of the referendum in the Western Sahara occupied by Morocco, reaffirming the need to eradicate all forms of colonialism in the African continent.
 
Sahrawi activist Aminatou Haidar had been received during her visit to Washington on Monday by the U.S. Congress, where she gave a presentation defending the Western Sahara issue and condemning the ongoing violations of Sahrawi human rights by Morocco.
 
The Sahrawi activist will move to New York to meet with United Nations senior officials, before the meeting of the UN Security Council on Western Sahara in April. (SPS)

'Global terrorism goes westward'



By Kang Hyun-kyung

Terrorism has moved westward from Iraq and Afghanistan to Yemen and Sudan following the Arab Spring, a Middle East expert said recently.

Prof. Seo Jeong-min, dean of the Department of Middle East and African Studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, said that “west-bound terrorism” was behind the rise of terrorist attacks in Arab Spring countries such as Egypt and Syria.

“There has been a noticeable trend regarding the direction of global terrorism after a series of popular uprisings in the Middle East had led to regime change in some countries there,” he said.


Seo noted that terrorism initially began in countries such as Afghanistan and Iraq and then moved westward to Yemen, Somalia, Sudan and other African countries.

He said that now the countries that underwent a wave of popular uprisings in recent years are suffering the consequences of this westbound terrorism.

He made the remarks during a roundtable interview with Egyptian Ambassador Hany Selim last month.

Prof. Seo said that the Feb. 16 attack against Korean tourists in the Sinai Peninsula, Egypt, came against the backdrop of post-Arab Spring terrorism. Three Koreans and one Egyptian were killed in the incident.

An annual report by IHS Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Center found that terrorist attacks surged in countries that have experienced severe political upheaval in recent years.

Ambassador Selim was, however, confident that terrorism in the northern part of Egypt is now under control. He said that the rise of terrorist attacks in his country is the second such incidence, after a first wave in the 1990s.

Selim claimed the Egyptian government’s crackdown on terrorists in the Sinai Peninsula has borne fruit, noting that it successfully ended the first wave of terrorism at that time.

In East Africa the role of First Lady has been evolving over the years

 IN SUMMARY
Today’s First Lady is faced with two pressures:
  • First, she can no longer claim ‘female exclusivity’ to the president’s ear in influencing public policy; and
  • Second, she cannot stray too far from the image of the progressive and sophisticated woman — the matronly, self-deprecating ‘Mama wa Taifa’ looks outdated next to the sharply dressed power women in Cabinet.
In East Africa, the role of the First Lady has been evolving over the years. Illustrations/Joseph Nyagah

By CHRISTINE MUNGAI

Inevitably, to become a First Lady is to step into a role that is subject to public scrutiny; whether that role is formal or informal.

Some First Ladies have found themselves in the news for all the wrong reasons — lavish holidays and shopping sprees abroad, corruption and/or doing everything possible to ensure their husbands remain in power. 

Imelda Marcos, former First Lady of the Philippines for example, was infamous for her glitzy display of wealth, collecting more than 1,000 pairs of shoes, and is even quoted as saying: “I was born ostentatious. They will list my name in the dictionary someday. They will use Imeldific to mean ostentatious extravagance.”

Despite facing numerous corruption charges in the Philippines, she is yet to be convicted and continues to wield considerable power even after her husband’s death; her knack in surviving personal and political challenges has led her to be nicknamed “The Steel Butterfly.”

Elena Ceausescu’s legacy too, is a subject of debate. A First Lady in communist Romania, she was chief of the Party and State Cadres Commission, which enabled her to promote and demote individuals in the party apparatus and the government. By the mid-1980s, Elena’s national prominence had grown to the point that her birthday was celebrated as a national holiday, as was her husband Nicolae’s. 

There is even a First Lady wanted by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity — Simone Gbagbo, wife of former Ivorian president Laurent Gbagbo. The ICC indicted her for four counts of crimes against humanity (murder, rape and other sexual violence, persecution, and other inhuman acts) committed in Côte d’Ivoire between 2010 and 2011, in the violence that followed a disputed election that pitted her husband Laurent against Alassane Ouattara, who eventually emerged victorious.

But what really is the role of the First Lady? The world over, there is conflict over her precise role — unelected, yet wielding substantial power, her job is to accomplish two things at once: “Project buoyant enthusiasm and an air of dignity; know how to be girlish and how to look serene in a gown,” write Andrew Burstein and Nancy Isenberg in an insightful piece on Salon.com.

Strong First Ladies also attract resentment, they write, drawing from Bill and Hillary Clinton: “... Nothing helped Hillary’s image so much as the sympathy she garnered when Bill’s bad private behaviour was confirmed. Then she appeared appropriately vulnerable.”

And the demure, suburban, country club woman is still derided as “Ms Perfect, someone easy to dislike.” It’s a delicate balancing act.

In East Africa, it seems, the role of the First Lady has been evolving over the years, from “mama wa taifa” (mother of the nation) — the silent, matronly types by the Big Man’s side, essentially reinforcing his role as the ultimate embodiment of the patriarchal establishment — to a more forward-looking one; a microcosm of shifting dynamics of the modern-day African society. Mama Ngina Kenyatta, the widow of Kenya’s first president, in particular, wore the tag.

In Uganda, critics have often described former First Lady Miria Kalule-Obote, as “low-key with barely a career to talk about.” She, however, surprised many when in 2005, she returned to Uganda after 20 years in exile, to bury her husband, and announced she would vie for the presidency during the 2006 General Election.

Today’s First Lady

Today’s East African First Lady is not the unassuming, silent type. She is educated, vocal and often powerful in her own right.

She is championing 21st century causes such as early childhood education, the fight against elephant poaching and even confidence-building for the youth by promoting debating contests and toastmaster clubs.

And as women become a common sight at the African political high table, and they are not just trophies — they are urbane, sophisticated, educated and often have some international experience — there is a need for the First Lady to measure up.

This list of the urbane, sophisticated, educated women includes Tanzania’s minister for Justice and Constitutional Affairs Asha-Rose Migiro, a former deputy secretary-general of the United Nations. Also included are Anna Tibaijuka, Tanzania’s minister for Lands and Housing, who is the former executive director of UN-Habitat; Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary for Defence, Raychelle Omamo, a former chair of the Law Society of Kenya who previously served as ambassador to France; and Uganda’s minister for Gender and Social Services Mary Karoro Okurut, who had an illustrious career as a writer and literary critic prior to joining government, and was the founder of Femrite — Uganda Women Writers Association.

This means that today’s First Lady is faced with two pressures: First, she can no longer claim “female exclusivity” to the president’s ear in influencing public policy; and second, she cannot stray too far from the image of the progressive and sophisticated woman — the matronly, self-deprecating “mama wa taifa” looks outdated next to her sharply dressed power women in Cabinet.

Perhaps no other country has witnessed this solid shift towards the composed and sophisticated type more than Kenya.

Mama Ngina Kenyatta was the quiet, unassuming, typical “mama wa taifa.” Then for 24 years under President Daniel arap Moi, Mama Ngina retained the official status as First Lady as President Moi was estranged from his wife (now the late) Lena.

When Mwai Kibaki came into power in 2002, his wife Lucy strode boldly beside him into the public arena, and before long, had become the talk of the town for her alleged aggressive outbursts. One bizarre episode is when President Kibaki called a rare press conference in 2009 to clarify to the public that he had only one wife, Lucy, apparently irritated by media references to a speculated second wife.

Still, Lucy had her fair share of achievements — she had programmes to fight HIV/ Aids and breast cancer, credited as a founder member and initiator of the Starehe Girls Centre, a leading girls high school in Nairobi. 

Then in came Margaret Kenyatta, the current First Lady, who is the complete embodiment of the 21st century woman.

East Africa's First Ladies


JANET MUSEVENI
JANET MUSEVENI
Age: 65
Education: Bachelor’s degree in Education; Diploma in Early Childhood Education
Number of children: Four
Years as First Lady: 28
Style: Short hair (popularised as the ‘Janet’ hairstyle); pearls

Janet Museveni is perhaps the best illustration of this evolution of the role of First Lady in the region. She is East Africa’s longest-serving First Lady. When she came into office 28 years ago, Uganda faced two major challenges — it was just emerging from years of civil war, and many children had lost their parents or had been child soldiers.

The country was also coming to terms with HIV/Aids, which was leaving thousands of children as orphans. It was thus natural that she started off her career as First Lady by founding Uganda Women’s Effort to Save Orphans (Uweso), a relief agency late 1986, which she said was shaped by her experience as a refugee. Fighting HIV/Aids was a core mandate of the agency. 

As a result, new HIV infections in Uganda plummeted from 31 per cent in 1992 to 6 per cent in 2002, and the country was lauded for setting the standard in the continent’s fight against HIV/Aids.

By 2005, the threat that HIV/Aids posed to Uganda was diminishing. The First Lady then repositioned herself as the guardian of Ugandan family values, and moral leader for the country’s youth — heading a campaign for prayer and abstention from sex as a new approach to dealing with the lingering threat of Aids. But that hamstrung with the image of a hectoring matron, so she shifted gears.

Her next move is a lesson in reinvention. She announced that she would vie for the Ruhaama parliamentary seat, in western Uganda in the 2006 elections, a radical move considering that Ruhaama was where she was born, not where she is married — African culture expects that a married woman “belongs” to her husband and his people, and she should “eat” where her husband is.

The easier route would have been to have her husband nominate her to parliament. But she ran, and won, and was even re-elected in 2011, becoming a political powerhouse in her own right.

In 2009, Mrs Museveni was appointed State Minister for Karamoja Affairs and in 2011, she was elevated to Minister for Karamoja Affairs, and was now not just First Lady, but an elected member of parliament and a government minister. She capped it with a remarkably frank autobiography, My Life’s Journey, further setting out her stall as an independent First Lady.

Janet Museveni’s rise to power coincides with President Museveni’s expanding of women in high-level positions — his 1986 Cabinet had just one woman, Gertrude Njuba, one of the few founding members of the National Resistance Movement (NRM). Today, women make up 36 per cent of the Cabinet.

JEANNETTE KAGAME
JEANNETTE KAGAME
Age: 51
Education: Bachelor’s degree in Business and Management Science
Number of children: Four
Years as First Lady: 14
Style: Shumshanana (traditional Rwandan dress for women)

No other First Lady in East Africa, has had to deal with the additional challenge of her husband’s international profile, as much as Jeannette Kagame.

Paul Kagame is unique in the region in that he is more than the president of a small African country — he is in many ways a global icon. His international fan club is as fanatic as is its Hate-Kagame global industry. He is the only African leader who gets invited to Fortune 500 meetings.

Mrs Kagame’s initiatives thus reflect a sharp, progressive forward-looking and future focused thinking, while sidestepping the international and regional battles her husband seems to relish.

Although her Imbuto Foundation covers health and other socio-economic programmes, some of its biggest initiatives are focused on empowering the youth, and not through just the conventional means: Imbuto Foundation hosts Reading Day campaigns, scholarships for secondary education, Celebrating Young Rwandan Achievers (CYRWA), and Rwanda Speaks!, a public speaking initiative done through toastmasters clubs and debate contests.

DENISE NKURUNZIZA
DENISE NKURUNZIZA
Age: 45
Education: Higher Diploma in Pastoral Studies
Number of children: Five
Years as First Lady: 9
Style: Short hair; umushanana; kitenge

Burundi’s Denise Nkurunziza embodies the conservative type, having being ordained as a reverend in 2011. She perhaps gets the least mention of the East African First Ladies, reflecting the reality that Burundi is still a country coming out of the shadows after years of a bitter civil war.

Her sports-loving husband Pierre Nkurunziza is also deeply religious, and both the president and First Lady preach at crusades and in church.

Her Buntu Foundation works to support refugees, widows and orphans, and in 2012, opened the Professional Training Centre, Buye at Ngozi, in northern Burundi where students are trained in various practical skills.

But like Salma Kikwete, her approach to health care is decidedly modern — in 2010, the Buntu Foundation signed an agreement with Fortis Healthcare, an Indian medical services network, which seized an opportunity to tap into the need for specialist healthcare in Burundi. Under the agreement, Fortis Healthcare trains Burundian specialist doctors and nurses in India.

Doctors from Fortis Healthcare also hold free medical camps for the poor, and citizens who cannot be treated in Burundi can be transferred to India for treatment at a subsidised fee.

MARGARET KENYATTA
MARGARET KENYATTA
Age: Unknown
Education: Bachelor’s degree in Education
Number of children: Three
Years as First Lady: 1
Style: Pearls; short grey hair

Kenya’s current First Lady, Margaret Kenyatta is the complete embodiment of the 21st century woman. Wellborn, articulate, composed and  photogenic, she lends much-needed class and glamour to President Uhuru Kenyatta’s image.

Her first major initiative as First Lady was on wildlife conservation, launching the anti-poaching campaign ‘Hands Off Our Elephants' mid last year.

In a country where wildlife conservation is largely seen as a “mzungu” thing (Western concept), the First Lady’s endorsement is a testament to her connection with 21st century sensibilities.

Recently, she launched another initiative, “Beyond Zero” focusing on maternal and child health, that saw her raise money by running a half marathon in March.

Marathons are a decidedly urbane and chic way of raising money, a departure from harambees (fund raiser events) or the ordinary conferences or talk-shops.

SALMA KIKWETE
SALMA KIKWETE
Age: 50
Education: Bachelor’s degree in Education; Diploma in Early Childhood Education
Number of children: 5
Years as First Lady: 9
Style: Kitenge with headscarf

There is still room for the traditional in East Africa — Salma Kikwete, Tanzania’s First Lady, who regularly wears kitenges in public, and has the most “motherly” image of her counterparts in the region.

Her WAMA Foundation (Wanawake na Maendeleo) has four major programmes — girl child education, which draws from Mrs Kikwete’s 20 years experience as a teacher, women empowerment, orphans and vulnerable children and health promotion.

Last month, the foundation joined five other NGOs under the Coalition for Prevention of Cervical Cancer in Tanzania, highlighting the growing threat of non-communicable diseases in the region.


Source: theeastafrican.co.ke

Scottish independence: Has Scotland ‘de-globalised’?


Prof Jim Tomlinson sees a link between the demise of traditional industries and the rise of nationalism

As Scotland looks to a choice on its future, with the economy a feature of the debate, two academic contributions give us a new take on the past route that got us to where we are now.

They're from Glasgow University economic historians, and together, they put a new slant on the powerful political narratives, first, that Margaret Thatcher's government was to blame for the demise of heavy industry in Scotland, and second, that Scotland is well adapted to the demands of competing in the globalised economy.
Could it be, on the contrary, that the Thatcher government merely accelerated a trend that was not only already clear, but which had previously been seen positively by Scots? 
And it may also be that Scots are far less globalised now than we were a century ago, with far more people now working for the state or selling to other Scots, with possible implications for the way voters approach their nation's future.
Long-term decline

An academic paper by Jim Phillips argues that the old industries had been in long-term decline long before Margaret Thatcher's government accelerated the effect.
He says there had already been a recognition that the old heavy industries were not delivering growth while sustaining employment, which is why the industrial policies of the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s tried to find new industries to which people could move, offering higher value jobs, and a route to faster economic growth.
They may not have succeeded, but that was the intention.
That's why the emphasis was on consumer goods, for instance attracting the car plant into Linwood in Renfrewshire, and Burroughs the computer manufacturer into Cumbernauld.
The loss of coal-mining employment was seen as acceptable before the Thatcher era because they were negotiated with the workforce, because there were jobs in more modern, productive pits and because new jobs were becoming available, not least to employ women as they entered the workforce.
Add caption


Through this period, Jim Phillips' academic paper points to the share of industrial employment falling from 42% of Scottish jobs in 1951 to 21% by 1991. It was an even steeper decline for Glasgow, with the figures demonstrating how long-term it had been; 50% industrial jobs in 1951, falling to 39% by 1971, 28% in 1981 as the Thatcher acceleration began to kick in, and 19% by 1991.
Even more marked was the decline in two of the big employing industries. In railways, employment fell from 55,000 in 1951 to 23,000 only 20 years later, and then down to 12,000 by 1991.
In coal, the fall was from 89,000 in 1951, to 34,000 in 1971, 25,000 in 1981, ahead of the miners' strike to stop pit closures, and only 2,400 ten years later. 
Jim Phillips' point is that much of this change was intended rather than merely the result of external forces, natural process or accident. The new, more productive industries appeared attractive, at least until they turned out to offer much lower-skilled 'screwdriver' jobs, without negotiating change with workers or unions, and then it turned out the multinational companies moved on when their operating costs looked more attractive elsewhere.
Rising insecurity

What has this got to do with the way Scotland thinks now? Well, Prof Jim Tomlinson, also an economic historian at the University of Glasgow, was presenting a paper at the annual conference of the Economic History Society at Warwick University this past weekend, which takes on Jim Phillips' argument.
Tomlinson sees a link from the demise of the old industries, the rising insecurity of the new ones, and the rise of nationalism since the 1960s.
His argument is that Scotland in 1913 was probably the most globalised economy in the world. It exported to the empire in vast quantities. And while that empire was administered from London, the trade was not mediated through the UK economy.
Dundonians in the jute mills looked to the monsoon in Bengal more than the London stock exchange. Glaswegians looked to the demand for shipping worldwide, and the world market for capital goods 
It's even been suggested that, a century ago, the US provided a larger market for Scottish goods than England and Wales. Now, the rest of the UK accounts for twice as big a market for Scottish goods and services as the rest of the world put together.
State jobs

The state, meanwhile, was very much smaller than we're used to now, with direct employment by the various layers of government coming to around 23% in Scotland, and indirect, state-funded employment putting that figure above 30%. A hundred years ago, the state's share was closer to 4%.
By contrast, it is reckoned that only around 10% of Scottish jobs are now in the manufacturing sector. Whisky, for instance, has been a huge exporting success of late, but as I've noted before, it isn't delivering as impressively on the jobs front.
So the argument is that Scots have ceased to look to a global market for the fruits of their labour. While trade has globalised the economy, Scotland has apparently been heading in the opposite direction. We're now more focussed on the national economy, on provision of services for fellow Scots, not least through provision of public services such as health.
With an economy that's been made much less export-oriented, the Tomlinson thesis is that "there is now more of a 'national economy' in Scotland than ever before in its history".
He's implying that fewer people have a personal stake in securing trade routes into export markets. Their focus is much closer to home. And the professor has pointed out that has left Scotland much less vulnerable to shocks from elsewhere, so while it sounds like it may be a retreat from forces playing on the economy around us, it isn't entirely to be regretted 
Does that help explain the rising appeal of nationalism over the past 50 years? Most nationalists, of course, would argue the contrary. As Winnie Ewing put it at her by-election success in 1967, 'stop the world - Scotland wants to get on'.
Growth rate

At least one other consequence may be a tad controversial for some, but here it is anyway. Where a part of the nationalist story is that Scotland had disappointingly low growth at least until the 1990s, that may be because it had slow-growing, old, heavy industries. When they went, growth picked up to the UK levels we've seen more recently.
Yet the demise of these industries, by the 1980s and 1990s, faced a strong consensus of Scottish opposition. The Labour Party, in those decades, was electorally successful at persuading Scots it was protecting them against those forces. The SNP was making similar arguments, though much less successfully at that time. In protecting the British welfare state, it has been much more successful of late 
Here's the question for both parties; had that opposition been more successful in protecting industries, would that growth rate not have been held back for longer?
Referendum message

One final thought from yet another economics paper published this past weekend, this one with a more directly political application.
A study of a referendum campaign on electoral reform in western Canada sought to find out if it is the politician or the message that makes the difference to the campaign, or as these academics from Columbia, the London School of Economics and Ryerson put it; 'content, charisma or cue?'
The outcome of their study was that the personality of the politician doesn't make much difference. Endorsements do, and equally so on the left and right.
The message can also be much more important than the political messenger. "Employing a message-based campaign or an endorsement-based campaign leads to about a 6 percentage point increase in the intention to vote 'yes' in the referendum," the report concludes.
You can interpret that according to taste, but it may have lessons for both sides of Scotland's independence campaign.

Douglas Fraser, Business and economy editor, ScotlandArticle written by Douglas FraserDouglas FraserBusiness and economy editor, Scotland
·         More from Douglas

Scaling back the many-headed Hydro

SSE is making some big moves in response to customer and political pressure, but also to a slowing up of prospects for renewables


Turkey a 'political war zone' on eve of elections

Supporters of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) wear Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan masks during an election rally in Konya, central Turkey, March 28, 2014.  (photo by REUTERS/Umit Bektas)

Turkey 'unhinged'
Turkey’s municipal elections campaign became consumed by the political crisis which swept the country and social media this week.
On March 27, an audio tape was posted on YouTube appearing to capture a conversation among four of Turkey’s top national security officials, including Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and intelligence chief Hakan Fidan, discussing orchestrating an attack on the Tomb of Suleiman Shah, the grandfather of the founder of the Ottoman Empire, which is just over the border in Syria but which Turkey considers its territory, as a pretext for a military action in Syria.
The leak led the government to deny Internet users access to YouTube just one day after a Turkish court overturned an earlier government ban on Twitter.
On March 23, a Turkish F-16 shot down a Syrian MiG-23, which Kadri Gursel suggested could have been a useful distraction to energize popular support for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan as he rallies voters for his Justice and Development Party (AKP).
The preoccupation with a rationale for action in Syria was also evident in Turkish military preparations to defend the tomb following a threat from the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), as Fehim Tastekinreports. Davutoglu has alleged that ISIS is allied with the Syrian government.
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of Turkey’s opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), told Amberin Zaman this week: "Erdogan recognizes that he is in trouble. That is why he wants to go to war with Syria. We raised the issue of the Tomb of Suleiman Shah [the grandfather of the founder of the Ottoman dynasty whose tomb is protected by Turkish troops]. They instantly shot down the Syrian plane. They are doing their best to go to war against Syria, to drag us into that quagmire. To this end, they are playing good cop, bad cop with al-Qaeda. They tell al-Qaeda, 'Go attack and tear down our [Turkish flag raised over Suleiman Shah’s tomb] so we have an excuse to go in.' Syria is no threat to Turkey. The whole world knows this. The Syrian plane was a reconnaissance plane that was seeking al-Qaeda targets. By shooting it down, they helped al-Qaeda."
The bans on Twitter and YouTube provoked criticism from European and US officials and, as Cengiz Candar writes, "Erdogan and associates continued with their established practice of blaming the Gulen movement for its troubles, accusing it of bugging the 'Syria war planning' meeting and for its disclosure via the Internet. They labeled the incident as an 'espionage offensive,' signaling the possibility of a witch hunt after the March 30 municipal elections."
Mustafa Akyol agrees "it is undeniable that Turkey is in a downward spiral toward authoritarianism, in part because the government feels threatened by hidden enemies using effective tactics — including wiretapping, hidden cameras and other forms of espionage — and is therefore responding with extreme measures, such as blocking Twitter and YouTube."
Akyol adds, “The March 30 elections are so significant, because they will show how popular the government’s alarmism is concerning its hidden enemies,” concluding, "If Erdogan wins big, a dark era will begin for all the 'traitors' at whom he has been pointing his finger. If he instead faces his first political setback, the war of attrition against him, especially by those veiled forces behind the wiretaps, will probably push for a bigger fall. In any case, Turkey is likely to continue to be a political war zone in the months to come, at least until the presidential elections scheduled for August 2014."
Henri Barkey describes Turkey as on "the road to Fahrenheit 451." He writes: "The lesson from Turkey is that a secretive and nontransparent government can easily be unhinged by the almost instant free flow of information. And when it becomes unhinged, it will resort to all possible means to contain the flow. When it undoubtedly fails, it will resort to increasingly more draconian measures."
UPDATE: Since this piece was published earlier today, March 29, a Turkish court banned media coverage of the leaked audio tapes. The question is whether the vote on March 30 will be marred by media controls and perhaps other improprieties, as Erdogan seems bent on winning at all costs. And then the question will be whether President Abdullah Gul, who has already gently yet clearly distanced himself from Erdogan on Syria, social media controls and other issues (as has been reported by Al-Monitor), may consider taking a stand on those actions of the prime minister which are dividing and destabilizing Turkey. If Gul takes such a stand, then attention will be on the reaction of the United States and Europe, which are seemingly running out of patience with the prime minister’s erosion of Turkey’s democratic institutions.
New front on Iran sanctions
Julian Pecquet this week broke the news that the House Foreign Affairs Committee (HFAC) is considering sanctions targeting Iran’s support for Hezbollah.
HFAC ranking member Rep. Eliot Engel, D-N.Y., who is leading this effort with chairman Ed Royce, R-Calif., told Al-Monitor that "at a time when we're sitting and negotiating with Iran over their nuclear program, they continue to do mischief with terrorist groups like Hezbollah. It irks me."
Iran and Hezbollah are already subject to myriad sanctions, so the question is what more can actually be done, and how to target Hezbollah without harming Lebanon’s banking sector, which could disrupt the country's fragile economy.
The general bipartisan consensus not to pursue further Iran sanctions while the nuclear negotiations are ongoing has troubled some members of Congress who argue that even more economic pressure on Iran is necessary if there is even the slightest chance for Iran to take the steps necessary to roll back its nuclear program.
"As I've always said, I hope these negotiations work — I hope they go well — that in six months we have a nice agreement," Engel said. "I have my doubts, but I hope I'm proven wrong. But I still don't trust the Iranians acting in good faith. If they were acting in good faith, they wouldn't be enriching while we're having negotiations and they wouldn't be siccing their terrorist organization Hezbollah on the rest of the world."
Engel and others who support this effort may view sanctions on Hezbollah as a means to weaken Iranian and Hezbollah support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
This column has consistently argued that the United States should engage Iran about Syria, and that “a discussion with Iran about Syria is a prelude to a broader discussion about Hezbollah, which is at the crux of the US tagging Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism.” There will not be sanctions relief for Iran absent some shift in Hezbollah’s role. This is all of a piece with developments in Lebanon, Syria, Israel and Russia, as this column has laid out in detail.
Al-Monitor expands Russia-Mideast coverage
Paul Saunders writes this week that Russia is not yet ready to "retaliate" or shift its Iran policy in response to Crimea, unless the crisis with the West deteriorates further.
Al-Monitor this week formally expanded its already extensive focus on Russia and the Middle East, its latest step in its growing coverage of the region through its Egypt, the Gulf, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria and Turkey pulses, as well as coverage of Congress and the Middle East.