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Saturday, March 22, 2014

The curious tale of the world-beating Somali shilling




by Ron Derby

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Here’s a pecuniary peculiarity to rival Bitcoin – the world strongest currency over the past 12 months belongs to a small, war-torn African state without foreign currency reserves or any discernible monetary policy and a central bank of only three years’ standing.

Yet the Somali shilling, Somalia’s official currency, has overcome such disadvantages to appreciate against the US dollar by just under 60 per cent since March last year, becoming the strongest among global 175 currencies tracked by Bloomberg. Its surge has been so pronounced that the second most robust currency over the same period – the Icelandic Krona – could only manage a measly 10.2 per cent rise.

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Source: Thomson Reuters
So what lies behind the shilling’s gravity-defying performance?

Improving security over the past year has encouraged native Somalis to return to the country, bringing foreign currency with them, said Ben Payton, senior Africa analyst at London-based risk analysis company Maplecroft.

Somalia is recovering from decades of civil war and also faces an Islamist insurgency from al-Qaeda-linked jihadis who mount regular attacks on the capital and claimed responsibility for the terrorist attack on a Nairobi shopping mall in October last year.

Donors have pledged billions of dollars to help secure and rebuild Somalia at recent conferences in the hope that it can make good on recent military gains against the militants.
The inflows and modest levels of foreign investment have been largely responsible for the appreciation of the Somali shilling, Payton said.

“As a result, the supply of US dollars in relation to the Somali shilling has increased. With shillings in comparatively short supply, the value of the currency has appreciated.”

The shilling’s story stands in sharp contrast to the weakness of many other emerging market currencies hit by the US Federal Reserve’s unwinding of monetary stimulus since the start of this year.

On Wednesday, the Fed continued on this path, announcing that it will reduce its monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities to $55bn from $65bn because of confidence that the four-year-old US recovery is becoming self-sustatining. In addition, Janet Yellen, the new chairwoman, appeared to suggest the Fed may start raising interest rates.
The appreciation of the Somali Shilling is an anomaly as remittances (hawalas) from abroad constitute the economic lifeline for many of its people. These are mostly received in dollars, with some then converted into local currency.

As the rates between the dollar and the shilling are determined by black market traders, “there are considerable variations in the rates offered by different operators,” Payton said.
Somalia’s central bank was re-established in 2011, but remains powerless to set monetary policy in the country situated in the horn of Africa and it isn’t backed by any hard currency reserves.

One of the strategic goals of the Somali Central Bank’s five-year strategic plan from 2013-2018 released in August was to expand its monetary instruments including the introduction of new currency.

“…this is not likely to be feasible for the foreseeable future, as the embryonic federal government would have difficulty in rolling out a new currency across the country, given that large areas are still outside its control,” Payton says.

Source: ft.com

Telecoms contractor could be called to account for drone deaths




By Mark Ballard 

Telecoms supplier BT could be asked to account for drone attacks in Yemen and Somalia after connecting a fibre-optic cable to a US military base conducting the strikes.

The revelation comes from a high-level review of a complaint that the £23m BT communications line supported drone missions that had accidentally killed between 426 and 1005 civilians in the last decade in the course of strikes on suspected insurgents, according to estimates of the Bureau of Investigative Journalism.

Officials at the UK Department for Business, Innovation and Skills threw the complaint out last October, saying there was no evidence to say whether the comms line supported the drone attacks or not.

A review of the decision has since raised the prospect that BT could be asked to gather evidence to answer the question itself.

The big question - whether the fibre-optic cable is infrastructure used in drone strikes critics say are illegal - remains unanswered.

Legal charity Reprieve used an international agreement on corporate ethics, called the OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises, to complain that BT should never have taken the contract because it obvious what the cable was for.

But the only evidence BIS had to go on was due diligence BT did to satisfy the OECD guidelines when it took the contract in 2012. BT's due diligence ignored the drone controversy. BIS said it therefore didn't know and couldn't say.

The review, published at the end of February, said companies shouldn't get away with glossing over controversies in their due diligence. They shoudn't turn a blind eye when they took on a customer with a bad reputation. They should ask awkward questions and address them specifically in their due diligence.

BT had done only general due diligence when it took out its contract with the US Defense Information Systems Agency on 26 September 2012.

Now the review, though indirect, has turned the spotlight back on BT.

BT refused to comment on the review's conclusion.

Wise monkey

It denied knowledge of drone strikes. It also tried to portray the fibre-optic line, which it laid between the US military intelligence communications hub at RAF Croughton, Northamptonshire, and Camp Lemonnier, the base in Djibouti, North-East Africa, that launches the drone strikes, as a civilian cable not suitable for military applications.

"BT can categorically state that the communications system mentioned in Reprieve's complaint is a general purpose fibre-optic system.

"It has not been specifically designed or adapted by BT for military purposes, including drone strikes," said the statement.

"[It] could be used at the base for a wide range of day-to-day activities, such as general housekeeping/internet browsing, email, communications, stores ordering, data functions and voice communications," said a BT spokesman in an email. He refused to rule out the possibility that it might serve a military function.

Neither BT nor BIS would release the due diligence BT had done. As a system of self-regulation, the OECD rules left it to those best placed to ask and answer the awkward questions, and to allay public concerns that they conducted their business ethically. But it did not allow the public to see the deliberations. Only officials could see the due diligence. The due diligence failed. The officials rubber stamped it even after the complaint.

Could try harder

BIS should clarify its position on how companies should address awkward questions in their due diligence, said the report, written by legal experts Jeremy Carver, a lawyer at Clifford Chance who advised Ulster Unionist Party leader David Trimble on the Northern Ireland peace process, Peter Astrella, head of corporate policy for UK Trade and Investment, and Daniel Leader, who has fought cases over rendition, torture and death of prisoners in Guantanamo Bay and Iraq.

BIS refused to say whether it would do this or not.

The report said general due diligence was not good enough when there was an obvious controversy - what it called a foreseeable, heightened risk that the contract would relate even indirectly to a human rights abuse.

Sheldon Leader, director of the Essex University Business and Human Rights Project and an advisor to the Law Society, said the OECD guidelines were clear on this point and companies were already required to address specific, foreseeable risks in their due diligence.

It would therefore be possible to bring a complaint against BT for not addressing the foreseeable human rights risks of the DISA contract when it did its due diligence in 2012. BT could meanwhile be held liable for civil damages if a specific link could be established between its comms line and drone attacks that have killed civilians.

The professor, an expert on the OECD rules and father of BIS review committee member Daniel, said BT's position that a comms supplier is not liable for what someone does with its services did not stand up when it came to potential human rights abuses.

"If I have a dangerous swimming pool, I don't intend anybody to misuse it, but I don't pay enough attention to the fact that someone could misuse it, then I'm responsible.

"The fact that BT put out a platform that is able to be misused is certainly something that could get the attention of the courts," he said.

Awkward questions

The complex context of the US base in Djibouti make concerned, civil observers more reliant on those involved to clarify the ethical questions and either reconcile their consciences with the conflict or, as the OECD rules say should be done, use their commercial influence to "prevent or mitigate" wrongdoing.

The drone strikes had been a matter of public controversy, particularly in the US, in the year BT took the contract. BT admitted it was aware of the controversy. The big question it refused to face, and which raged while BT was bidding for the work, was whether it was legal at all.

Critics said the strikes were illegal and constituted inhumane summary executions. These intelligence-led "targeted killings" of suspected terrorists, without trial, in areas outside official war zones had eliminated between about 2,800 and 4,400 people in three brawling states over the course of a decade, according to Bureau estimates.

The death statistics were drawn from a decade when the US War on Terror, in whose name they were first conducted, was refashioned into a more general mission to support fragile African and Asian governments against armed insurgents, with an emphasis on local military partnerships, medical intervention and construction projects. The drone attacks nevertheless had the trappings of war without being formally, legally-declared war. The US insisted it worked in collaboration with governments fighting violent uprisings, and the consequence of a ground-led counter-insurgency would have been many more casualties and a runaway escalation of violence. But its rules of engagement permitted strikes where local governments were unwilling or unable to co-operate. The White House press office would not say when it acted alone.

Those it executed were suspected to be the sort of terrorists who killed 74 people in Westgate shopping mall, Nairobi, in September. Critics said drone attacks would make things worse. The public outcry nevertheless grew loud enough last year for US President Barack Obama to appoint a committee of US judges to vet them.

Ongoing Bureau investigations reported between 17 and 26 civilians killed by US drone strikes in Yemen last year. The country has been fighting an al-Qaeda-led armed uprising with US support, but one derived from a long-standing North-South religious, economic and political division with colonial roots and a recent history of war.

Reported civilian casualties dropped to nil in Pakistan, where the number of strikes was cut right back. But Military drones strikes and civilian deaths have been ongoing in Afghanistan and Yemen, the UN reported last month, while the questions of their legality has still not been settled under international law.

Source: computerweekly.com

Encircling Somalia


The Obama administration’s strategy for countering al-Qaeda’s affiliate in war-torn Somalia is to train and finance African peacekeeping forces, strengthen security alliances with other countries in East Africa, and conduct drone missions from bases to the north, east and west.

Source: Staff reports. Graphic by the Washington Post. Published on November 24, 2011, 6:25 p.m.

Ayax Tiro Badan Oo Ka Soo Guuray Dhinaca Waqooyiga Ayaa Ku Habsaday Deegaanka Fiqi Aadan iyo Waraqa-dhigta Ee Gobolada Awdal iyo Salal.




Borama - Waxaana La sheegayaa In ayaxaas uu dul fadhistay aqal soomaaligii iyo geedihi isla markaasina uu ayaxaas uu u cunayo marooyinkii saarnaa aqal soomaaliga.

Sida uu shabakadu uu xaqiijiyey madaxa Mch Ee Fiqi Aadan Dr.Maxamed Cumar Warsame isaga oo ka hadlaya Arimaha Ayaxana Waxa Uu Yidhi “ Ayaxani Wuxuuu Wataa Dacawooyin tiro Badan Oo isaga Cunaya Isla markaasina waxa ay soo dhex galeen gudihii Magaalada.”

Waxa Uuna Intaasi Uu Si Raaciyey In ayaxan Tiro Badnidiisu uu naga Qariyey Iftiinkii Cadceeda Iyo Cirkii Dul Heehaabaya Deegaanka.

Dr.Maxamed Waxa Uu Ka Dayriyey Xalada Xaalufinta Deegaanka Iyo Dhibatada Ayaxaas Uu Ku Keenayo Dhul Daqsimeedkii Iyo Dhirtaba Sida Awgeed Waxa Uu Talo Ahaan Ku soo Jeedinaya In ay Dhibatada Ayaxaas Looga Soo Gurmado Deegaanadaas.

Sidoo Kalena Waxa Ayaxan Laga Soo sheegaya Maalmahan Danbe Deeganada Waraqa Dhigta,Midhidh,Cali Xaydh Iyo Deegaanada Ku Teetsan Sidaasna Waxa Noo Xaqiijiyey Xildhibaan Juube iyo Xildhibaan Baadmaax oo ka mida Xildhibanada Golaha Deegaanka Degmada Lughaya.

Waxa ay Xildhibanadu ay sheegeen In uu Ayaxu Faro Ba’an Uu Ku Hayo Beeralayda Deegaanada Ku Teetsan Waraqa Dhigta.

Waxa Xusid Mudan In Wasaarada Beeraha Somaliland ay bishan Horaanteedi ay hawl Lagu Tirtirayo Ayaxa Ay Ka samaysay Deegaanadaasi Balse Ayaxani Awood ka balaadhan Taasi Oo Gurmad ah Loo Soo Sameeyo Si Wax Looga Qabto Ayaxan Dhibta Ku Haya Deegaanadaas.

Germany to Participate in EU Somalia Mission




Government spokesman Steffen Seibert said Chancellor Angela Merkel's Cabinet decided Wednesday to commit up to 20 soldiers to the mission. The move needs parliamentary approval, which it is expected to receive.
The EU mission moved to the Somali capital, Mogadishu, in December. It was launched in Uganda in 2010 and Germany participated in training there, but initially wouldn't send soldiers to Somalia itself because of security concerns.
Germany has been cautiously moving toward a more active foreign policy role under Merkel's new coalition government, which took office in December.

Somalia: Puntland is for Pirates and Somaliland is for .....!!!???

Why are convicted high-seas bandits being sent to the Somali region that profits from their crimes?

Photo: MOHAMED DAHIR/AFP/Getty Images
HARGEISA, Somaliland — Mowlid Ahmed Abidoon stands quietly in the small prison cell where he has lived for nearly two years. Slot windows on one wall let in only a little sunlight, leaving his face almost entirely obscured in darkness. Yet there are splashes of color all around: The room's bunk beds are covered in sheets with bright floral and geometric patterns, over which hang canopies of blue mosquito nets -- cells within the cell.
Clad in a striped polo shirt and prison-uniform pants, Mowlid estimates that he is about 20 years old; the last traces of baby fat still cling to his cheeks. He insists that he shouldn't be behind bars. "I'm a fisherman, not a pirate," he says flatly, as though he has delivered this speech a hundred times before.
Court documents from Seychelles say otherwise. On Dec. 6, 2009, Mowlid and a band of fellow Somali pirates used firearms and explosives to attack the Topaz, a Seychelles Coast Guard patrol vessel. (Seychelles, an island nation, is about 825 miles southeast of Mogadishu, Somalia's coastal capital.) They were arrested, convicted, and sentenced to 24 years in prison.
That's how Mowlid ended up in Hargeisa Central Prison, home to 29 Somali pirates. The prison was born of necessity. Pirates are often tried in countries like Seychelles and Mauritius, in whose waters they are caught, but those states don't want to keep the convicted in their jails. The Somali government can't reasonably take them, given its extreme volatility. Yet one place has been eager to house pirates: Somaliland, a self-declared independent (but internationally unrecognized) republic in northern Somalia that wants to prove its state-like qualities and relative security in the tumultuous Horn of Africa.
So the United Nations invested millions of dollars to build a prison in Hargeisa, Somaliland's capital. Opened in 2010 and run by local authorities, it was the first new prison in the region in 30 years.
Today, outside the prison's main entrance, a sign warns visitors what they cannot bring with them: hand grenades, knives, assault rifles. Inside, inmates compete against guards in basketball, while feral kittens roam the dusty grounds. In the prison's open kitchen, a huge pot of stew bubbles over a fire. Aside from spirals of barbed wire and armed guards atop open towers, there isn't much obvious security.
Beneath the veneer of calm, however, the prison is nearing capacity. The facility can hold 506 prisoners, and it already has 480. (Pirates are housed alongside other criminals.) Mowlid, like many inmates, shares his cell with nine other men. Meanwhile, some 1,350 pirates currently incarcerated abroad await repatriation to Somalia. It's clear that neither Hargeisa nor Somaliland generally will be able -- or even willing -- to take them all.
The solution, according to the international community, lies in another autonomous region in Somalia: Puntland, which encompasses the country's northeastern coastline. The U.N. provided funding to upgrade and expand a prison in the port city of Bosaso, and, as of press time, another U.N.-backed facility was scheduled to open in Garowe, Puntland's capital, in February 2014. But Puntland isn't Somaliland. It is a less stable and more corrupt place. Perhaps most worrying, however, is that it's also considered the heart of Somalia's pirate culture.
"Puntland is pirate land,"explains Michael Frodl, the founder of C-Level Maritime Risks, a Washington-based consultancy. "If I were a Somali pirate, I'd do everything I could to get sent to Garowe."
PIRACY BEGAN SPREADING rapidly in the waters off Somalia in the early 21st century because of civil war and poverty -- offering a chance to make money amid an economic wasteland of opportunity. In a typical operation, pirates armed with guns and other weapons approach commercial ships in skiffs, hijack them, and demand a ransom, a chunk of which they often pay to wily financiers. But even if Somali pirates can be considered products of circumstance, some have also become torturers and murderers: Freed hostages have reported pirates hanging captives by their feet, submerging them at sea, staging mock executions, and locking them in freezers.
Reports of appalling violence, along with hundreds of millions of dollars in losses to shipping companies, have prompted the international community to focus on repressing, arresting, and prosecuting Somali pirates. In 2008, the U.N. Security Council adopted a resolution calling on countries with ships in the region to use military force against pirates. NATO and the European Union (among others) police the Indian Ocean, and private, foreign-funded security operations have also joined the fight. Meanwhile, shipping companies have fortified their vessels to repel attacks, using everything from armed guards to razor wire.
Their efforts have worked. There were only 15 reported attacks in 2013, according to the International Chamber of Commerce, down sharply from a peak of 237 in 2011. Analysts around the world have touted the drop as a huge success.
But while the most visible manifestations of piracy have diminished, the root causes of the phenomenon remain unaddressed back on dry land. Amid continuing political and economic instability, organized gangs of pirates still exist, looking for susceptible targets, and a new generation of young men like Mowlid could easily turn to a life of maritime crime. Indeed, according to a 2013 World Bank report, "Current and proposed onshore or offshore policies for curbing Somali piracy are either ineffective or unsustainable." As a result, the report states, "whether they [pirate attacks] will continue to be suppressed is a major question." Similarly, Jon Huggins of the nonprofit Oceans Beyond Piracy, has called the recent gains against pirates "fragile and reversible" and has warned against "emphasiz[ing] too much the declining numbers of attacks."
"The prisons in Somaliland and Puntland, in other words, are part of a security solution to a problem that is, at its heart, economic and political -- a worrying mismatch."
The prisons in Somaliland and Puntland, in other words, are part of a security solution to a problem that is, at its heart, economic and political -- a worrying mismatch. Ending piracy once and for all will require more than military might on the high seas and the threat of incarceration. According to the World Bank, it will require incentivizing -- through both law enforcement and development initiatives -- the local leaders enabling piracy to change their tune. Then there is the matter of jobs. "Ultimately, we need to get these Somali men, often youth, quality employment," says Michael Shank, an adjunct professor and Somalia expert at George Mason University's School for Conflict Analysis and Resolution. The U.N. Development Program has pegged the unemployment rate for Somali youth between the ages of 14 and 29 at 67 percent -- one of the world's highest.
Pirate prisons alone certainly cannot address this problem. Although inmates can complete training programs in trades like construction, metalworking, and plumbing in the Hargeisa and Bosaso facilities, it's unlikely they will be able to use their newfound skills upon release. Even fishing jobs are largely out of reach. Shank explains that, in addition to "ransom pirates," there are "resource pirates." The latter, however, aren't Somalis. They are foreign fleets that threaten East Africa's waters with overfishing and toxic-waste dumping, making it impossible for many Somali men to make money the way their fathers and grandfathers did. "To put the problem of piracy in perspective, ransom pirates made $60 million in their most lucrative year, while commercial-resource pirates illegally harvest up to $450 million in fish annually," says Shank. "Any sustainable solution for this problem, then, must address this exploitation."
Ironically, pirate prisons may also be generating new security risks. Pirates in Hargeisa and Bosaso are held in the same facilities as members of al-Shabab, the Somali terrorist group with ties to al Qaeda, and juveniles are housed alongside adults. That means there's a very real risk that impressionable, disillusioned young men could be radicalized -- young men like Mowlid, who, if his estimated age is correct, was only about 16 when he and his friends attacked the Topaz. "I don't see any future," Mowlid says of his life.
John Wilcox, a prison advisor for Somaliland with the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), says roughly 12 of the Hargeisa prison's inmates are members of al-Shabab. There is a covert prison intelligence program in place to ward off radicalization, but Wilcox still worries that the facility could become a breeding ground for extremists. "A lot of these guys don't have father figures," he says, alluding to another socioeconomic problem in Somalia: the disintegration of clan and family structures because of conflict and hardship. "And with al-Shabab in here, we certainly don't want this to be the place where they find one."
Radicalization might be less of a concern if prison inmates were certain to remain behind bars. But in November 2013, Bosaso's prison was attacked by al-Shabab militants carrying at least one rocket-propelled grenade; they killed three people as they sought to liberate fellow extremists from their cells. The UNODC was quick to point out that, had it not been for its recent investments in Bosaso, the attack could have been worse. "However, we cannot close our eyes to possible attacks," says Manuel de Almeida Pereira, a program coordinator with the UNODC in Garowe. "We remain, of course, worried."
It's not just al-Shabab that threatens the prisons' security: Puntland has a reputation for tolerating and even enabling piracy. Although Puntland's former president, Abdirahman Farole -- in office from 2009 until January 2014 -- made repeated public pledges and some concrete efforts to undermine, arrest, and convict pirates, a 2012 report by the U.N. Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea called into question "[t]he authenticity of the Puntland authority's commitment to fighting piracy." Gangs have reportedly paid off local communities in order to dock hijacked ships in Puntland's coastal cities during ransom negotiations, and Puntland government officials have been known to receive pirate money in exchange for protection agreements and information about the location of foreign ships. A 2012 Chatham House study also found that ransom money contributes heavily to the region's economic development, particularly in provincial capitals. "Puntland's political elites are therefore unlikely to move decisively against piracy," the report concluded.
The decision to invest in greater detention capacity in Puntland -- like Somaliland before it -- was due largely to a lack of alternatives. (It didn't help that, due to an ongoing border dispute, Somaliland has refused to imprison pirates born in Puntland, saying it must deal with its own problems.) But the large-scale transfer of pirate prisoners from abroad hardly seems like a safe solution. Pirates have had success bribing their way out of custody throughout Somalia. The U.N. is working to ensure that prisoners are not unlawfully released from the facilities it funds, but some experts are worried that pirates may still slip through the cracks in Puntland.
"Pirates are basically being sheltered by the regime in exchange for protection money," Frodl, the maritime risk consultant, says. "Those jails might hold a few foot soldiers, but if you tried to incarcerate any high-level pirates in Puntland, they'd buy their way out in a week."
MOWLID, WHO GREW UP IN THE TOWN OF Barawe, south of Mogadishu, perks up slightly when asked about the Puntland prisons. Puntland might be better, he agrees. In Somaliland, he has never been able to have a visitor, and he misses his family. Puntland would be closer to home.
A few of his fellow inmates nod. A transfer might be nice.
But that's not what they really want to talk about. As the minutes pass, they shift in their seats, ignoring the bottles of fruit juice and water a prison guard has passed around.
"How can you help us?" demands Ares Isse Karshe, a 40-year-old pirate who was captured with Mowlid. He has a thin, ragged beard with hints of gray. When I explain that I can't help him, he leans back in his chair and says nothing.
Across the room, Mowlid is willing to speak -- but only a little. He claims once more that he is innocent and that his right to a fair trial was violated.
"Please leave us alone," Mowlid says finally, looking down. "We give up the sea. It belongs to you now." His fingers have curled into fists.
Source: foreignpolicy.com

Egypt, Ethiopia and the Grand Renaissance Dam


Houseboats line the Nile bank in Cairo. Some 85 million Egyptians depend on the Nile for water. Credit: Cam McGrath/IPS.
CAIRO, Mar 21 2014 (IPS) - When Egypt’s then-president Mohamed Morsi said in June 2013 that “all options” including military intervention, were on the table if Ethiopia continued to develop dams on the Nile River, many dismissed it as posturing. But experts claim Cairo is deadly serious about defending its historic water allotment, and if Ethiopia proceeds with construction of what is set to become Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam, a military strike is not out of the question.
Relations between Egypt and Ethiopia have soured since Ethiopia began construction on the 4.2 billion dollar Grand Renaissance Dam in 2011.
Egypt fears the new dam, slated to begin operation in 2017, will reduce the downstream flow of the Nile, which 85 million Egyptians rely on for almost all of their water needs. Officials in the Ministry of Irrigation claim Egypt will lose 20 to 30 percent of its share of Nile water and nearly a third of the electricity generated by its Aswan High Dam.
"Hydroelectric dams don’t work unless you let the water through.” -- Richard Tutwiler, a specialist in water resource management at the American University in Cairo
Ethiopia insists the Grand Renaissance Dam and its 74 billion cubic metre reservoir at the headwaters of the Blue Nile will have no adverse effect on Egypt’s water share. It hopes the 6,000 megawatt hydroelectric project will lead to energy self-sufficiency and catapult the country out of grinding poverty.
“Egypt sees its Nile water share as a matter of national security,” strategic analyst Ahmed Abdel Halim tells IPS. “To Ethiopia, the new dam is a source of national pride, and essential to its economic future.”
The dispute has heated up since Ethiopia began diverting a stretch of the Nile last May, with some Egyptian parliamentarians calling for sending commandos or arming local insurgents to sabotage the dam project unless Ethiopia halts construction.
Ethiopia’s state-run television responded last month with a report on a visit to the site by army commanders, who voiced their readiness to “pay the price” to defend the partially-built hydro project.
Citing a pair of colonial-era treaties, Egypt argues that it is entitled to no less than two-thirds of the Nile’s water and has veto power over any upstream water projects such as dams or irrigation networks.
Accords drawn up by the British in 1929 and amended in 1959 divvied up the Nile’s waters between Egypt and Sudan without ever consulting the upstream states that were the source of those waters.
The 1959 agreement awarded Egypt 55.5 billion cubic metres of the Nile’s 84 billion cubic metre average annual flow, while Sudan received 18.5 billion cubic metres. Another 10 billion cubic metres is lost to evaporation in Lake Nasser, which was created by Egypt’s Aswan High Dam in the 1970s, leaving barely a drop for the nine other states that share the Nile’s waters.
While the treaty’s water allocations appear gravely unfair to upstream Nile states, analysts point out that unlike the mountainous equatorial nations, which have alternative sources of water, the desert countries of Egypt and Sudan rely almost entirely on the Nile for their water needs.
“One reason for the high level of anxiety is that nobody really knows how this dam is going to affect Egypt’s water share,” Richard Tutwiler, a specialist in water resource management at the American University in Cairo (AUC), tells IPS. “Egypt is totally dependent on the Nile. Without it, there is no Egypt.”
Egypt’s concerns appear warranted as its per capita water share is just 660 cubic metres, among the world’s lowest. The country’s population is forecast to double in the next 50 years, putting even further strain on scarce water resources.
But upstream African nations have their own growing populations to feed, and the thought of tapping the Nile for their agriculture or drinking water needs is all too tempting.
The desire for a more equitable distribution of Nile water rights resulted in the 2010 Entebbe Agreement, which replaces water quotas with a clause that permits all activities provided they do not “significantly” impact the water security of other Nile Basin states. Five upstream countries – Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda – signed the accord. Burundi signed a year later.
Egypt rejected the new treaty outright. But after decades of wielding its political clout to quash the water projects of its impoverished upstream neighbours, Cairo now finds itself in the uncomfortable position of watching its mastery over the Nile’s waters slip through its fingers.
“Ethiopia’s move was unprecedented. Never before has an upstream state unilaterally built a dam without downstream approval,” Ayman Shabaana of the Cairo-based Institute for Africa Studies had told IPS last June. “If other upstream countries follow suit, Egypt will have a serious water emergency on its hands.”
Ethiopia has sought to assure its downstream neighbours that the Grand Renaissance Dam is a hydroelectric project, not an irrigation scheme. But the dam is part of a broader scheme that would see at least three more dams on the Nile.
Cairo has dubbed the proposal “provocative”.
Egypt has appealed to international bodies to force Ethiopia to halt construction of the dam until its downstream impact can be determined. And while officials here hope for a diplomatic solution to diffuse the crisis, security sources say Egypt’s military leadership is prepared to use force to protect its stake in the river.
Former president Hosni Mubarak floated plans for an air strike on any dam that Ethiopia built on the Nile, and in 2010 established an airbase in southeastern Sudan as a staging point for just such an operation, according to leaked emails from the global intelligence company Stratfor posted on Wikileaks.
Egypt’s position was weakened in 2012 when Sudan, its traditional ally on Nile water issues, rescinded its opposition to the Grand Renaissance Dam and instead threw its weight behind the project. Analysts attribute Khartoum’s change of heart to the country’s revised domestic priorities following the secession of South Sudan a year earlier.
According to AUC’s Tutwiler, once Sudan felt assured that the dam would have minimal impact on its water allotment, the mega-project’s other benefits became clear. The dam is expected to improve flood control, expand downstream irrigation capacity and, crucially, allow Ethiopia to export surplus electricity to power-hungry Sudan via a cross-border link.
Some studies indicate that properly managed hydroelectric dams in Ethiopia could mitigate damaging floods and increase Egypt’s overall water share. Storing water in the cooler climes of Ethiopia would ensure far less water is lost to evaporation than in the desert behind the Aswan High Dam.
Egypt, however, is particularly concerned about the loss of water share during the five to ten years it will take to fill the dam’s reservoir. Tutwiler says it is unlikely that Ethiopia will severely choke or stop the flow of water.
“Ethiopia needs the electricity…and hydroelectric dams don’t work unless you let the water through.”
Source: ipsnews.net

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Italy Intercepts Migrants from War-Torn Countries



(ROME) -- Italian officials have rescued more than 1500 people fleeing war in overcrowded boats in the Mediterranean Sea just off the southern coast of Italy.

As many as 25 children were in the 13 boats packed with hundreds of migrants trying to make it to Europe from Syria, Somalia and other war-torn countries.


The latest rescue puts the number of migrants intercepted in the last two days at well above 2,000 -- unusual for this time of year, when weather conditions are poor and few people embark on the dangerous crossing.

Authorities have arrested eight Egyptian men for human trafficking. The men are allegedly involved in a ring that transports migrants in large boats off the coast of North Africa and then transfers them into small, rickety boats for the remainder of the journey.


Tens of thousands of people have drowned risking the crossing.


Copyright 2014 ABC News Radio

Religious police found in nearly one-in-ten countries worldwide



BY 

As of 2012, at least 17 nations (9% worldwide) have police that enforce religious norms, according to a new Pew Research analysis of 2012 data. These actions are particularly common in the Middle East and North Africa, where roughly one-third of countries (35%) have police enforcing religious norms.
For example, in Saudi Arabia, where President Obama will meet with King Abdullah later this month, the Muttawa religious police (formally known as the Committee for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice) impose a government-approved moral code on residents of the country. The Muttawa enforce strict segregation of the sexes, prohibition of the sale and consumption of alcohol, a ban on women driving and other social restrictions based on the government’s interpretation of Islam.
Earlier this month, Saudi religious police destroyed an ancient burial site in the southern city of al-Baha after claiming the graveyard was un-Islamic. And last month, they conducted anti-Valentine’s Day patrols, monitoring businesses that were selling chocolates, flowers and red or heart-shaped souvenirs. 
Saudi Arabia is not alone in its use of a religious police force. In the Asia-Pacific region, police enforcing religious norms are found in eight of 50 countries (16%). In Vietnam, the government’s religious security police continued to monitor “extremist” religious groups, detaining and interrogating suspected Dega Protestants or Ha Mon Catholics. And in Malaysia, state Islamic religious enforcement officers and police carried out raids to enforce sharia law against indecent dress, banned publications, alcohol consumption and khalwat (close proximity to a member of the opposite sex), according to the U.S. State Department.
And in sub-Saharan Africa, two countries in the region (Nigeria and Somalia) have religious police. In Nigeria, the Hisbah (religious police) are funded and supported by governments in several states, where they enforce their interpretation of sharia law.
As of 2012, religious police forces were not present in any country in Europe or the Americas.
The data used in this analysis relied on 18 widely cited, publicly available sources from groups such as the U.S. State Department, the United Nations, Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International and the International Crisis Group. Although it is possible that more countries have religious police forces than are reported by the 18 primary sources, taken together the sources are sufficiently comprehensive to provide a good estimate of the presence of these forces in almost all countries.
Read more about how the Pew Research Center study measures social hostilities involving religion and government restrictions on religion. 

ISI had special desk to handle OBL: Intelligence sources refute NY Times allegations



NEW YORK- Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) had established a special desk to handle late Al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden during the tenure of President General (retd) Pervez Musharraf, according to The New York Times.

The report states that the desk ‘was operated independently, led by an officer who made his own decisions and did not report to a superior. He handled only one person: Bin Laden.’ The report citing a Pakistani official alleges that the US had direct evidence of the then ISI chief Lt. General Ahmed Shuja Pasha knowing of Osama bin Laden’s presence in Abbottabad. The Pakistani official told The NY Times that he was ‘surprised to learn this and the Americans were even more so.’ According to the official, Pasha had been an opponent of the Taliban and ‘an open and cooperative counterpart for the Americans at the ISI.’

The New York Times report also alleges that evidence recovered from Osama bin Laden’s Abbottabad residence revealed regular correspondence with Jamat-ul-Dawa’s Hafiz Saeed and Mullah Omar of the Taliban who must have known he was living in Pakistan.

Further allegations in the report state that there were cells in the ISI working against and fighting the Taliban while some cells were supporting them. The report also suggested that Bin Laden reportedly traveled to Pakistan’s tribal areas to meet with the militant leader Qari Saifullah Akhtar. Informally referred to as the “father of jihad,” Akhtar is considered one of the ISI’s most valuable assets. According to a Pakistani intelligence source, he was the commander accused of trying to kill Bhutto on her return in 2007, and he is credited with driving Mullah Omar out of Afghanistan on the back of a motorbike in 2001 and moving Bin Laden out of harm’s way just minutes before American missile strikes on his camp in 1998. After the Sept. 11 attacks, he was detained several times in Pakistan. Yet he was never prosecuted and was quietly released each time by the ISI.

At his meeting with Bin Laden in August 2009, Akhtar is reported to have requested Al Qaeda’s help in mounting an attack on the Pakistani army headquarters in Rawalpindi. Intelligence officials learned about the meeting later that year from interrogations of men involved in the attack, the report said.At the meeting, Bin Laden rejected Akhtar’s request for help and urged him and other militant groups not to fight Pakistan but to serve the greater cause — the jihad against America. He warned against fighting inside Pakistan because it would destroy their home base: “If you make a hole in the ship, the whole ship will go down,” he had said.

According to the report Bin Laden said that Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia and the Indian Ocean region would be Al Qaeda’s main battlefields in the coming years, and that he needed more fighters from those areas. He even offered naval training for militants, saying that the United States would soon exit Afghanistan and that the next war would be waged on the seas. Pakistani intelligence sources termed allegations made in The New York Times report as baseless, stating that no one was aware of Osama bin Laden’s whereabouts.

.nation.com.pk