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2013: Why is Scotland seeking independence now? |
London (CNN) -- Exactly six months from now, Scots will go to the polls to vote on the future of their country.
It's a vote that could
end Scotland's 300-year union with England and Wales as Great Britain --
and see it launch into the world as an independent nation of some 5.3
million people.
Russian lawmakers have drawn a parallel between Scotland's vote and the referendum held in Ukraine's Crimea region Sunday.
But any such comparison
is disingenuous: The referendum in Scotland is being held with the
consent of the UK government, it will be internationally recognized, and
Scotland's people have had years to consider what is a genuine choice.
By contrast, the
referendum held in Crimea was illegal under Ukrainian constitutional law
and took place under duress, only days after armed "pro-Russian forces"
took effective control of the peninsula. Voters also did not have the
option of saying "no" to cutting ties with Kiev.
What are the Scottish voting on, and why?
On September 18, voters will be presented with a simple yes/no question:
Should Scotland be an independent country?
The Scottish government, led by the Scottish National Party, says this is
a "once in a generation opportunity" for Scotland's people to take
control of the decisions that affect them most. A "yes" vote means
that "Scotland's future will be in Scotland's hands," it says, and
that life will be better and fairer for its people.
British Prime Minister David Cameron wants Scotland to remain part of an
undivided United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. He says that it
is a decision solely for the Scottish people -- but that remaining part of the
United Kingdom will give them security and strength. "There will be no
going back," he warns.
Because the United Kingdom has no written constitution, there's no
established law to govern the process. So these are truly uncharted waters.
What's the history behind this?
Scotland has long had a testy relationship with its more
populous neighbor. The Act of Union in 1707 joined the kingdom of Scotland with
England and Wales, but many Scots were unhappy at being yoked to their longtime
rival south of the border.
Since 1999, Scotland has had devolved government, meaning
many, but not all, decisions are made at the Scottish Parliament in Holyrood,
Edinburgh. In May 2011, the nationalist Scottish National Party, which had
campaigned on a promise to hold an independence referendum, surprised many by
winning an outright majority in the Scottish Parliament.
In October 2012, the UK and Scottish governments agreed
that the referendum would be held, and the question to be put to voters was
agreed on early last year.
Dauvit Broun, a professor of Scottish history at the
University of Glasgow, says one driving force for the vote is the widening gulf
between the policies pursued by the coalition UK government in Westminster, led
by the Conservative Party under Cameron since 2010, and what the Scottish
people want.
Many Scots are strongly opposed to the current
Westminster government's attempts to reform -- or in their eyes dismantle --
the welfare state. Illustrating that sentiment, there's only one Conservative
MP in Scotland at present.
"Since the period of Margaret Thatcher, there has
been a growing divide, and a sense that what Scotland feels consensus about ...
has become more and more different to England," Broun says.
Looking further back, Scotland and England have been
growing apart since the demise of the British Empire, Broun says. The decline
of the Presbyterian church in Scotland, which provided a sense of
self-government and Scottish identity, has also played a part in fueling the
desire for independence, he says.
Who can vote?
Thanks to a bill passed last year extending the vote to
16- and 17-year-olds, essentially everyone living in Scotland who is 16 or
older on the date of the referendum will be able to vote.
This means English or Welsh citizens who reside in
Scotland can take part. But Scots who are living elsewhere in the United
Kingdom or overseas will not be entitled to cast a ballot.
It also means that the residents of England, Wales and
Northern Ireland get no vote on a historic change to the makeup of the United
Kingdom.
What currency would Scotland have if it
leaves?
This is another big but unresolved question. Scottish First
Minister Alex Salmond, leader of the Scottish National Party, has said he wants
Scotland to continue to use the pound in a currency union with the rest of the
United Kingdom.
But the three main parties in Westminster -- David
Cameron's Conservatives, their coalition partners the Liberal Democrats, and
Labour -- have all said this won't be an option. The Scottish government
responded that this was "bullying" from Westminster.
A Treasury briefing paper last month warned that
"currency unions between sovereign states are fraught with
difficulty" and advised strongly against entering into one with Scotland,
citing uncertainty and the risk of insolvency as factors.
Despite this, Scotland could decide to use sterling
unofficially, Broun says. Also unclear is what would happen to Scotland's share
of UK debt if it's not part of a currency union, he adds.
"The UK government doesn't want to talk about
something they don't want to happen, but as a result they've created
uncertainty," Broun says.
Would an independent Scotland be part of the
European Union?
It's still not clear how an independent Scotland would
fit into the European Union. It's an important issue because EU membership
brings economic benefits, as well as greater global clout.
Panos Koutrakos, a professor of European law at City
University London, says Scotland sees EU membership as indispensable, even as
Cameron has promised a UK-wide referendum on the question if he's re-elected
next year.
By leaving the United Kingdom, Scotland would have to
renegotiate its membership in the 28-nation bloc. The big questions are: How
would this be done, and how long might it take?
The heads of the European Commission and European
Council, Jose Manuel Barroso and Herman Van Rompuy, have said Scotland would
have to apply for membership in the same way as any other independent state.
This "hard position" means Scotland would have to negotiate an
accession agreement with all the existing EU members, Koutrakos said.
The Scottish government says that since it's already a member
as part of the UK, and abides by EU laws, it could join through an amendment to
existing treaties -- a quicker and potentially easier route. The Scottish
government says this could be achieved within 18 months of a vote for
independence.
Could an independent Scotland pay its bills?
The Scottish government argues the country would be
better off after independence, largely
based on its taking control of revenues from North Sea oil and gas found in
Scottish waters.
Salmond said this month that new government figures show the underlying strength of the
Scottish economy. "Over the last five-year period, Scotland would've been
£8 billion better off standing on its own two feet than as part of the United
Kingdom," he said. "That's about £1,600 for every man, woman and
child in the country."
The Scottish government says it would manage the energy
industry better, invest to boost production, and create a wealth fund, similar
to Norway's oil fund, to benefit future generations.
But not everyone agrees with the Scottish government's
rosy assessment.
A report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies this month said the
latest figures showed Scotland's budget deficit had worsened relative to the
rest of the United Kingdom, thanks to falling North Sea revenues and higher
public spending north of the border.
The IFS warns of the dangers of relying too heavily on a
volatile and ultimately finite income source. "In planning for
independence, the Scottish Government should be cautious in its fiscal
assessment, and avoid building its budget on the back of optimistic forecasts
for North Sea revenues," it said.
The Scottish government says the economy is diverse, with
other key elements including food and drink, tourism, creative industries,
universities, financial services and manufacturing.
What happens if Scotland votes 'yes' to
independence?
A "yes" vote would mean Scotland splits from
the rest of the United Kingdom -- that is, England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
The Scottish government anticipates it would become
formally independent in March 2016, ahead of elections in May of that year.
Once it's independent, it says, tax and social security
rates will be set in line with the wishes of the people of Scotland. Decisions
will no longer be imposed by parties in Westminster.
Scotland already has an independent legal system and
education system. Post-independence, changes to the law would be agreed to in
the Scottish Parliament.
The Scottish government says it wants to remove nuclear
weapons from Scotland as soon as possible -- namely, the UK Trident nuclear
submarine fleet based at Faslane. It cites different priorities for spending,
such as social programs.
What would it mean for visitors?
Tourism is big business for Scotland -- and the Scottish government won't want to lose out post-independence.
But what would it mean for the tourists for so long drawn to Scotland's legendary offerings -- from its castles, lochs and misty moorlands, to its whisky distilleries, Edinburgh's stately architecture and Glasgow's vibrant urban scene?
It's unclear if the uncertainty over Scotland's future currency will discourage visitors from crossing from England.
The Scottish government intends to set its own immigration policy after independence. It has said it envisages "free movement across the border between Scotland and England" for UK citizens, in the same way as they can travel freely to Ireland. But its border controls will depend in part on its accession to the European Union.
The Scottish government says it plans to cut air passenger duty, making it cheaper for international travelers to fly into Scottish airports.
It's not just tourists who may be eyeing potential changes to immigration policy. More than 30,000 international students from more than 150 countries study at institutions in Scotland.
What's the mood?
Opinion polls suggest campaigners for a "yes" vote
still have some way to go. A YouGov poll in February found that 52% of those
surveyed would say "no" to Scottish independence while 34% would say
"yes," up one point from the previous month.
South of the border, opposition to Scotland leaving the
union seems to be strengthening, according to nonpartisan research group What
Scotland Thinks. Polls conducted in the past month in England and Wales, for
the Sunday Times and Observer newspapers, found only a fifth of those surveyed
were in favor of Scottish independence, with just over 60% opposed.
Cameron says the loss of Scotland would leave the United
Kingdom "deeply diminished." While only 4 million people will vote,
he says, the result will impact 63 million within the United Kingdom.
It's not just the politicians who are getting involved.
Singer David Bowie, in a Brit Awards acceptance speech last month delivered by
supermodel Kate Moss, pleaded, "Scotland, stay with us."
Former Manchester United football club manager Alex
Ferguson also opposes a split and has backed the "Better Together" campaign.
"800,000 Scots, like me, live and work in other parts of the United
Kingdom. We don't live in a foreign country; we are just in another part of the
family of the UK," he is quoted as saying.
The "Yes" campaign also has some celebrity
backers -- including former James Bond actor Sean Connery and comedian Frankie
Boyle.
Connery, who can't vote in the referendum since he lives
outside Scotland, wrote in the New Statesman that "the opportunity of
independence is too good to miss."
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