OPINION -Somalia: Spectre of political meltdown

Which political system can end Somalia's vicious cycle of political crises?

A stable executive authority still remains elusive for Somalia. On December 2, Prime Minister Abdi Farah Shirdon's government collapsed after the parliament passed a motion of "No Confidence".

The latest rancorous drama between President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and his sacked prime minister is nothing new. Since 2000, practically every pair of leaders appointed or elected has gone through similar challenges. At the end of each round, significant crucial time was lost, institutions were damaged and the profound structural problem - the real impetus causing periodical disharmony - was never addressed.

The often-employed process for a quick fix was to sack the prime minister by using members of the parliament; often by corrupt means or by way of external political pressure. Ordinarily, such processes are long and highly contentious as it requires a significant number of the parliamentarians to rally to pass a "no confidence" motion. At the success of this endeavour, yet another long process of appointing "the right" prime minister, negotiating the make-up of the new council of ministers, and then securing a confidence motion for him and his ministers, gets under way.

Endless cycle

This tooth-pulling process not only demoralises and disharmonises, but it causes critical priorities to haphazardly shift. For all sides, surviving a real, or perceived, political mortal combat becomes first priority and everything else a far second. For each of the past episodes, the president has gotten his wish and appointed a prime minister of his choice only to face the same outcome within a year or so.

"The cyclical political dilemma is simplified and individualised - thus treating the symptom and not the root cause. As a result of this erroneous approach, in a period of 13 years, Somalia has had four presidents and ten prime ministers."

Moreover, the already weak institutions take a devastating and irrecoverable hit. The council of ministers is overrun; the president comes out with bruised eyes; the judiciary is kept in the periphery; and the parliament is further corrupted. 

Almost always, the struggle has been over the demarcation of the executive authority. The underpinning argument has always been "the country cannot have two presidents or two offices competing for executive authority". 

The cyclical political dilemma is simplified and individualised - thus treating the symptom and not the root cause. As a result of this erroneous approach, in a period of 13 years, Somalia has had four presidents and ten prime ministers. 

Genesis of a dysfunction

The root cause of the government's short lifespan is a systemic dysfunction deeply embedded within the constitutional structure and political culture of the elite.

In 1960, immediately after independence, the newly formed state of Somalia adopted a constitution inspired by the Italian one. This was anticipated since Italy was not only the colonial power that ruled Somalia, but also the trustee under which soon-to-be-independent Somalia was administered and its political elite was trained during the decade of UN trusteeship. According to E A Bayne, Italian academic Professor Giuseppe A Costanzo drafted the constitution and Somalis revised it through an inclusive process.  

From 1960 to 1969, the nascent state of Somalia adopted a parliamentary system. Like other parliamentary systems, the president was to be the head of state and to be elected by the parliamentarians. On the other hand, the leader of the winning political party would be appointed as prime minister, assuming that the party is disciplined enough to keep the government in office.

To their credit, the first two presidents selected their respective prime ministers from the Somali Youth League which won the election, albeit, on each occasion, the leaders of the party were bypassed for clan-based politics. Nevertheless, with sporadic hiccups, the system worked.

Fast forward two decades later to post-civil war. The charter that was drafted and signed as part of the Arta Peace Accord in Djibouti kept the 1960 constitution with some modifications. For instance, in the new charter, the president's power was to include the right to appoint a prime minister but was modified to exclude the right to dismiss the prime minister as mandated by the 1960 constitution. Somali experts who drafted the charter clearly understood that these were substantive powers which the president could exercise.

Moreover, in contravention with the conventional parliamentary systems, Somali presidents appointed the prime minister of their choice. This contradiction has, inadvertently, created and sustained a political culture that is profoundly at odds with the parliamentary system. In practice, Somali presidents acted as though the country had a presidential system.

Under the current arrangement the political culture far outweighs the constitution: The prime minister is a political paradox - an unelected official, who, upon being appointed by the president, becomes more powerful than the head of state. 

Overhauling the system  

What Somalia needs is a total overhaul of its current political system. A great opportunity was missed during the preparation of the draft constitution in 2012. The UN offices that led the constitutional process, chose to ignore the many voices that called for a debate on governance and other political issues.

"Somalia's political class must come to terms with the type of system that they want to use in regulating political conflicts among groups, individuals and institutions."

That said, the latest political setback could be the tipping point for mobilisation and building consensus for an authentic constitutional overhaul. However, this would lead to a faulty outcome unless it is preceded by genuine political debate on a number of contentious issues.

Somalia's political class must come to terms with the type of system that they want to use in regulating political conflicts among groups, individuals and institutions. The prevalent political culture of the elite suggests that Somalia, without any debate and without enshrining it in the constitution, has adopted a presidential system. It is widely accepted to find a would-be president campaigning publicly and negotiating with parliamentarians and clan leaders on political deals; and, at times, on purchasing votes in the open political market and promising cabinet positions to supporters.

What are the options?

In order to prevent perpetual bickering and political meltdown, there are two practical suggestions: Either change the aforementioned political culture by strictly following the parliamentary system that the constitution prescribes, or change the parliamentary system and create one that is consistent with the prevailing political culture that embraces a presidential system.

Of course, each of the systems has its own advantages and disadvantages. Adopting a presidential system would guarantee the direly needed executive stability and the continuity that has been elusive in Somali politics. On the other hand, the parliamentary system has the advantage of emphasising accountability.

We believe that the parliament should put a moratorium on the parliamentary system and embrace a presidential system. Even though the current constitution does not conceive a popularly-elected president, we think it is necessary to include this in the constitution.

We propose adopting a presidential system for four reasons. First, creating the political culture necessary to sustain a parliamentary system will take a long time. Organised and disciplined political parties are practically non-existent. Looking back, almost all of the 10 prime ministers were diaspora Somalis without any organisational backing.

Second, instability of the executive authority is one of the main factors that is behind the perpetual dysfunction. Power struggles and zero sum tribal politics dominate the system. We consider the value of stability in the system as a whole, and that of the executive in particular, as the paramount value to which other important governance issues should be subordinate.

Third, the lessons learned from other places such as Liberia, Afghanistan, Sierra Leone, Mozambique and South Africa, convince us that the presidential system is worth trying. While some of these countries are struggling, none of them are caught in the cycle of getting a new government every six months or so.

Finally, the fear of the president becoming a dictator is legitimate. We think such a fear can be mitigated by empowering the parliament, the judiciary branches, civil society and the media.

In doing so, Somalia would be able to steer away from the systemic political volatility that has been crippling the government for at least 13 years, and it would help promote civic-based competitive politics.  

Afyare Elmi is a political scientist who teaches at Qatar University. He is the author of Understanding the Somalia Conflagration.

Ambassador Abukar Arman is the former Somalia envoy to the United States. He is a writer and analyst.

The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial policy.

Source: Al Jazeera

KENYA: Only four shooters at Kenya mall and they may have escaped alive, says NYPD

Simon Maina / AFP - Getty Images

Gunmen stormed a crowded shopping mall frequented by Westerners in a brazen midday attack

By Tom Winter - NBC News

Only four men may have carried out the attack on a Kenyan mall that killed more than 60 civilians in September, and they probably escaped alive, according to an NYPD report made public Tuesday.

The report debunked many of the assertions made by Kenyan authorities, who claimed that as many as 15 attackers were involved, including some who might be foreign nationals, and that they were holding hostages.

More than 60 civilians and six soldiers died in the Sept. 21 assault by terrorists from the al Qaeda-affiliated group al Shabaab on the Westgate Mall in Nairobi. After a two-day siege and a series of explosions, Kenyan authorities said they had cleared the mall and killed four attackers.

At a Manhattan press conference Tuesday morning, New York Police Commissioner Ray Kelly said investigators didn’t know “with certainty” how many people were involved, “but we believe there were only four shooters.”

The NYPD report also said the attackers carried only light weapons, and that there is no evidence any of them tried to take hostages or remained in the mall after 12:15 a.m. on Sept. 22. It also said the female British jihadi known as the “White Widow” was probably never in the mall, despite tabloid rumors, and that the Kenyan military looted the high-end shopping complex.

Lt. Detective Commander Kevin Yorke, who prepared and presented the report, also questioned the Kenyan authorities’ theory that the attackers died when explosions collapsed portions of the mall.

"As a cop, I’m very skeptical of claims until I see proof,” said Yorke, and added that  there is “a lot of doubt in my mind it is true.”

The NYPD sent several detectives to Nairobi with the New York Joint Terrorism Task Force to investigate the assault, and Yorke assembled their findings into the report.

Slideshow: Gunmen attack mall in Kenya

Simon Maina / AFP - Getty Images - Gunmen stormed a crowded shopping mall frequented by Westerners in a brazen midday attack

According to the NYPD’s reconstruction of events, the four attackers operated in two-man teams and coordinated their movements by cellphone. After throwing three grenades and entering the mall, they used AK-47s in single-fire mode to shoot their victims. More than one-third of the dead were attending a children’s cooking contest that was being held in tents in the mall’s roof parking lot. The attackers killed them within 15 minutes of arriving at the mall.

The report said the attackers had grenades and several hundred bullets in eight magazines, but no body armor, handguns or heavy weapons. They did not try to take hostages, but killed as many victims as they could, sparing some who could recite Muslim prayers or name the Prophet Mohammed’s mother. A Russian hand grenade was found on the roof with the pin removed but unexploded.

No women were involved. Rumors had circulated during the siege that British citizen Samantha Lewthwaite, the widow of a suicide bomber who attacked the London train system and killed 26 people as part of the “7/7” plot.

The NYPD report credits private security guards and personnel with clearing many people from the mall, though some may have fired on each other since they didn’t use badges. Some civilians “played dead” as the terrorists walked past, while others who tried to hide, many in small stores, were shot dead.

Kenyan law enforcement initially thought they were responding to an armed robbery at the mall. The first Kenyan tactical team didn’t arrive until 1:45 p.m., about 90 minutes after the attack began, and the Kenyan police commissioner arrived at 1:50 p.m.

The police department tactical team entered the mall at 3 p.m., without police markings or identifications, and were fired on by Kenyan soldiers, killing the commander of the unit.

According to the NYPD report, the responding Kenyans “had no idea what the mall looked like internally,” and didn’t know they could access the closed circuit television system.

One terrorist was shot in the leg. The shooters tilted or destroyed cameras in order to hide their whereabouts. By 6 p.m. they were in a mall storeroom near the loading docks, and waited there for six hours, tending their wounded comrade and praying. They can no longer be seen on closed circuit footage after 12:15 p.m., when the NYPD believes they slipped away.

The siege continued for two more days. In his presentation, Yorke dismissed the Kenyan government’s claims that 10 to 15 shooters were involved or that the terrorists had created smoke by setting mattresses on fire. He said he didn’t know what had caused the mall to collapse, but said the Kenyan military may have used rocket-propelled grenades and anti-tank missiles on the building, and that heat from fires caused by the explosions may have weakened the poorly built structure.

Yorke said that while the Kenyan military may not have killed any of the attackers, there was “significant” physical and video evidence that they had looted the mall.

Source: 

Project XPat: Turkey Ball In Djibouti

Rachel Pieh Jones

Here in the States, many folks play American-made football — touch, not tackle — on Thanksgiving Day after the megameal.

But in other parts of the world, no one will be the wiser if you make a substitution — and play American-made baseball. Turkey Ball instead of Turkey Bowl, perhaps?

That has become the tradition for Rachel Pieh Jones and her family in Djibouti, in the Horn of Africa. "We cook, entirely from scratch," says Rachel — transplanted from Minnesota — whose husband, Tom, teaches at the University of Djibouti. "Pumpkin pie, mashed potatoes, stuffing, dinner rolls. If we're lucky, we have a turkey. If not, we substitute rotisserie chicken or Chinese take-out."

After the Thanksgiving repast, the Jones family joins "other expats — not all Americans — for the annual baseball game," says Rachel, who about the expat experience. "We take over a soccer field and play until dark. Not all know how to play; some run the bases backwards, throw the bat or just play catch."

At day's end, everyone from all over the world gets together for desserts — from all over the world.

**

We hope American expatriates will share photos of Thanksgiving celebrations and tables and gatherings from around the world. Please send them to us on Thanksgiving Day — and over the long holiday weekend — at or post them using the hashtag #nprexpat. We will display as many as we can.

Hussein Halane tops the candidates to replace Somalia’s outgoing PM

Hussein Abdi Halane

By Somalicurrent

Hussein Abdi Halane is the leading candidate to replace the outgoing Prime Minister of Somalia, Abdi Farah Shirdon, Somali Current sources reveal.

Somali Federal Parliament ousted Shirdon on October 2, after lawmakers criticized his low performance and lack of activities as the country’s Prime Minister, during his year in office.

SC sources close to the Presidential Palace confirm that Hussein Halane is the ideal candidate to replace Shirdon, although he faces a stiff competition from Abdiwahid Elmi Gonjeh, who was the Deputy Prime Minister and federal Minister for Transport during PM Omar Abdirashid’s term.

Halane is a well-regarded figure in the international community and was the former Minister of Finance of the previous Transitional Federal Government of Somalia, led by PM Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo.

He has been working with Non-profit humanitarian organizations in the last 23 years. In addition, he was the country director of Save the Children.

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who has 19 days to appoint his next Prime Minister, will have to choose between Halane and Gonjeh, according the Somali Current sources.

Gonjeh was presented himself as a candidate in Somalia’s 2012 presidential elections and later he was among resigned candidates.

Number of politicians has presented themselves to the President in an attempt to win his confidence, and sudden change may happen anytime.

Nuradin Dirie, who was among the presidential candidates in 2009 Puntland Elections, is also among the candidates running for the post.

Nuradin served as senior special advisor to the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF).

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is expected to appoint his new Prime Minister in the next two weeks.

[By: Mohamed Farah and Tahlil Hassan]

The Mo Ibrahim Foundation expresses condolences upon Nelson Mandela's death

by MIF

The Mo Ibrahim Foundation wishes to express its great sadness upon the passing of Nelson Mandela, former President of South Africa.

Mo Ibrahim, Founder and Chair of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, said:

“Nelson Mandela, the man who inspired our work to fight for better leadership, the father of African good governance, has died. Today we are orphans.

The way to honour his life is to double our efforts to secure development, democracy, justice and dignity across Africa. Our mission must be to complete his work.

Madiba somehow embodied the tenacity of the fighter with an overwhelming humanity and humility. We have much to learn from his example.

Our condolences to his family, comrades, the South African Nation, but above all to Africa and Africans. Today we are all orphans.”

For his outstanding contribution to governance and leadership in Africa, the Mo Ibrahim Foundation made Nelson Mandela an honorary laureate of the Ibrahim Prize for Achievement in African Leadership in 2007. His legacy continues through the work of three Foundations he created: The Nelson Mandela Foundation, The Nelson Mandela Children’s Fund and The Mandela-Rhodes Foundation.

Ethiopia spearheads green energy in Africa

 

Ashegoda - From the sky, the 84 glimmering white turbines at Ashegoda wind farm shoot up from the ground like massive spokes, standing out high amid vast expanses of yellow wheat.

Ethiopia's northern Tigray region, mostly populated by cattle farmers who grow the country's staple grains, is an unlikely site for a modern French-run wind farm, let alone sub-Saharan Africa's largest.

With its multi-billion dollar projects in wind, hydropower, solar and geothermal energy, Ethiopia's pioneering green energy efforts aim to supply power to its 91 million people and boost its economy by exporting power to neighbouring countries.

"Ethiopia stands alone in Africa as using green energy for transformative growth," said Ahmed Soliman, from Britain's Chatham House think tank.

Current energy production capacity stands at 2 177MW, with ambitions to reach 10 000MW by 2015.

Ashegoda's turbines, which tower above young boys in tattered clothes watching over their livestock, have a total capacity of 120MW, making it the biggest on the sub-continent.

Growing interest

The project was built by France's Vergnet Group, and is the first of several planned wind farms in the country, including a 204MW Chinese-built site under construction in the southeast.

Ashegoda, 780km from Addis Ababa, is part of ambitious plans to transform Ethiopia into a middle-income, carbon-neutral country by 2025.

The $313m wind farm, funded by the French government and several private French banks, is an indication of growing interest from European companies in Ethiopia, where Chinese, Indian and Turkish investments are also growing.

Both France and Ethiopia's government are "very enthusiastic to reinforce even more links", said Romano Coutrot, site manager at the wind farm, adding Ashegoda is one of Vergnet's "most important" projects globally.

The project took four years to complete and became fully operational in October, but faced several hurdles along the way.

Soaring up to 80m high, the turbines had to be driven to landlocked Ethiopia on semi-paved roads from Djibouti, which posed a major challenge.

Completion was further delayed to relocate the site 5km north after the aviation authority said it was interfering with its airspace.

Coutrot admitted that doing business in Ethiopia can be challenging, with infrastructure shortfalls and crippling bureaucracy.

"The taxation system, customs, the relationship with authorities, it's sometimes a bit difficult," he said, speaking from his office on site amid the imposing turbines.

Ethiopia ranks 125 out of 189 countries on the World Bank's ease of doing business index.

"Government services like customs, land issues, other government services are improving," said Minister for Water and Energy Alemayehu Tegenu, insisting the government was committed to improving conditions for investors.

Aggressive investments

The government says its investment in green energy is a central pillar of its development plan, crucial in a country where the majority of people live on less than $2 a day.

"Health, education, communication, water supply, industry, these all need sustainable and reliable power supply," Alemayehu said.

Only 53% of the country currently has access to electricity, with large swathes of Ethiopia's rural regions in the dark and relying on firewood for basic household needs.

"Unless you have this kind of ambitious plan, the pace of population pressure will take over and you won't see any change," said Belay Simane, professor of environment at Addis Ababa University.

The country is already exporting power to Djibouti and Sudan, with a line to transport energy to Kenya under construction.

Soliman said it will solidify Ethiopia's role as a leader in green energy in the region.

"Ethiopia will have a competitive regional advantage, not having to rely on economically and technically less-feasible sources of energy such as gas or oil to meet growing demands, which many East African countries are doing," Soliman said.

The hard currency earned from these power exports will go toward increasing the number of renewable energy projects in Ethiopia, according to the government.

Heavy investment in the green energy sector extends beyond economics: the country is keen to avoid the mistakes of countries such as China or India, that experienced rapid economic growth but with grave environmental costs.

"If we invest in these resources, we can develop in a green way without affecting the environment like they did in Europe," said Fisseha Gebremichael, Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation's Ashegoda project manager.

Alemeyahu said he hopes Ethiopia's aggressive investments in wind and other renewable energy resources will persuade other African countries to follow suit.

"We don't want to keep African populations in the dark for a long time, we have to run very fast to access light for industry and for social and economic development," he said.

- AFP

Saudi Billionaire Plans Two Cement Plants in Ethiopia

By William Davison - 

Saudi billionaire Mohammed al-Amoudi, the biggest private investor in Ethiopia, plans to build two more cement factories in the Horn of Africa nation amid an improving investment environment.

The plants will add to the $351 million facility al-Amoudi’s MIDROC Derba Cement opened in December 2011, the 67-year-old investor said in an interview today in the capital, Addis Ababa. Derba Group, an amalgam of three Ethiopian companies owned by al-Amoudi, plans to invest $3.4 billion in Ethiopia over the next 5 years, the company said in March 2012.

“Africa’s opportunity lies in involvement of private sector working with stable and responsible government like Ethiopia,” al-Amoudi said in a speech at the African High-Growth Markets Summit in Addis Ababa. Continuing improvements in the business climate will probably to lead to a “great” increase in investment, he said, without elaborating.

Ethiopian-born Al-Amoudi ranks as the world’s 134th richest person, with a net worth estimated at $8.7 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. He is the second-richest person inSaudi Arabia, after Prince Alwaleed bin Talal. Ethiopia’s economy is projected to expand 7.5 percent next year, compared with an estimated 7 percent this year, the International Monetary Fund said in its World Economic Outlook in October.

Three farming companies owned by al-Amoudi developed 62,000 hectares (153,205 acres) of land in Ethiopia, al-Amoudi said. Elfora Agro-Industries, Horizon Plantations Ethiopia and Saudi Star Agricultural Development will have prepared an additional 160,000 hectares in the next 2 1/2 to 3 years.

Source: bloomberg.com