At least four people killed as Ethiopian airforce plane for African Union peacekeepers crashlands in Mogadishu. At least four people have been killed after a military aircraft burst into flames moments after landing at the international airport in the Somali capital Mogadishu. The victims in Friday's accident were part of the six crew on board. Sources said the plane belonged to the Ethiopian airforce and was carrying weapons and ammunition for AMISOM, the peacekeeping mission in Somalia run by the African Union. AMISOM said on Twitter the crash happened shortly before 8am. "The [AU] force commander expresses his heartfelt condolences to the government and the people of Ethiopia following the loss of crew members," AMISOM tweeted without giving the number of those killed or injured. Small blasts could be heard from the stricken plane and airport workers said they believed they were caused by exploding ammunition. "We hear explosions as it burns. It is burning like hell. It is sure it will end up in ash," one security source at the airport told the Reuters news agency. The source said the blaze was so intense firefighting crews were unable to tackle it. Mucahit Salih Duran, head of the Turkish Red Crescent delegation in Somalia, tweeted a photo showing black smoke rising from what appeared to be a runway. There was no immediate word on where the aircraft was flying from. Military aircraft regularly land at Mogadishu's airport, which also serves as the headquarters for the AU force battling al Qaeda-linked Islamist fighters called al-Shabab. Air traffic has increased significantly at the airport as Mogadishu continues on a slow recovery from decades of warfare. Two major international carriers - Turkish Airlines and Air Uganda - operate direct flights into Mogadishu. |
Saturday, August 10, 2013
Deaths as plane crashlands at Somalia airport
Somalia: Puntland oo dib ugu celisay Muqdisho markab Turkiga laga leeyahay oo gargaar siday
Garowe, Somalia - Maamul goboleedka Puntland ayaa maanta dib ugu celiyay magaalada Muqdisho markab laga leeyahay dalka Turkiga oo siday raashin gargaar ah kaas oo laga celiyay xeebta dekedda Boosaaso ee gobolka Bari. War-saxaafadeed loo diray xafiisyada wararka, Puntland waxay ku sheegtay in raashinka laga lahaa dano siyaasadeed.
“Waxaa caddaatay in raashinka uu qeyb ka yahay siyaasad jahwareersan oo Dowladda Federaalka ay ka waddo gudaha Soomaaliya, taasoo khilaafsan Dastuurka Federaalka KMG ah ee Soomaaliya iyo jiritaanka iyo Dastuurka Puntland,” ayay Puntland ku sheegtay war-saxaafadeedka.
Puntland waxay ku eedeysay dowladda federaalka inaysan wax codsi ah ama xiriir ah kala soo sameyn dowladda Puntland raashinka gargaarka, sidaas darteed ay go’aan ku gaartay in markabka dib loogu celiyo Muqdisho oo uu ka soo shiraacday.
Puntland waxay sheegtay inay guddi u saartay baaritaanka arrintan, iyadoo sheegtay inay qoraal gaar ah u diri doonto xafiiska hay’adda Bisha Cas ee Turkiga iyo dowladda Turkiga si jawaab kaafi looga bixiyo xadgudubka siyaasadeed oo ay Turkiga qeyb ka noqdeen.
Ma jiro wax war ah oo ilaa hadda ka soo baxay dowladda Soomaaliya oo ku aaddan celinta markabka.
Guddida Darajo bixinta Ciidamada Somaliland oo sheegay in wixii cabasho ah ee ka soo Baxay darajadii la bixiyey ay diyaar u yihiin siddii ay u Xalin lahayeen.
Sidaasi waxay ku sheegen shir jaraa’id oo ay maanta ku qabten Xafiiskooda oo ku yaala wasarada gaashandhiga Somaliland.
Waxa kale oo ay ka hadleen Xeerka Anshax ee qabanaya Saraakiisha kala duwan ee Darajooyinka la siiyey.
Saleeban Cumar (Kujoog) oo ah Guddomiyaha Guddida darajobixnta ciidamada Somaliland oo ugu horeyn halkaasi ka hadlay ayaa Faahfaahin ka bixiyey Hanaankii ay u qaybiyeen Darajooyinka waxaanu yidhi.
“Halkan waxa ku sugan Guddidii loo magacaabay darajo bixinta oo uu madaxweynaha Somaliland digreyto ku magacaabay bishii Septenber 25-2012, kuwaasi oo ka soo tallo bixinayey soona qiimeeyan habkii darajooyinka ciidamada loo bixin lahaa, runtii hawshaasi darajo bixintu may ahayn mid dhib yar oo si sahal ah looga bixi karo, Runtii halkan aanu ka bilaabnay darajo bixintu waa halkii aanu ka unugnay ee ma ah mid dhamaystiran si hadhoowto halkaasi looga ambaqaado sidaasi ayaa loogu dhiiraday in darajooyinka la bixiyo, khaladku waxa uu yimaada marka wax la qabto, lakiin qof aan waxba qabani maba khaldamo, Illahay uunba khaldamin anagu bini’aadam ayaanu nahay, lakiin ma lihin anagu waxayagii waanu sugnay, lakiin waxaanu isleenahay siddii ugu fiicnayd ee cadaaladana waafaqsanayd ee Illahayna nagu ogyahay ayaanu ku bixinayn, illahoow eexna hanooga tagin aqoon darana hanagu cadaabin ayaanu taaganahay.
Cabasho way jiraysaa cabashadu ma ah mid dad kale cabanayaan, ku beello cabanayso ma ah, ma ah in siddii u xisaabtano dad aan waxba kala garanayn, cabashada waxa la imanaya ciddii cabanaysay qofkaa cabashada leh ee Cid kale ma laha, sarkaal ayaa cabanaaya askari ayaa cabanaaya lakiin mid caaqil ka cabanaya ama mid odey ka cabanaya ma ah cabashadu, waxaasi waa waxa aanu doonayno in laga gudbo, ninkii isleh waxbaa kamaqan waa loo diyaar, dib ayaa loo qiimaynayaa guddida kale way la eegaysa taliyihii ayaa wixii khaldan, nin walba qof ahaantiisa ayaa loo qancinayaa qofka suuqa ka buuqaya ee dacaayada suuqa dhegeysanayaa isagay jirtaa, horta dadkana waxaanu leenahay qofkii xogogaal ahoow dadka u waran lakiin kii kal loow dadka buuqa ka daa oo dadka tashuush hagalinin oo dadka buuq hagalinin.
Ciidamada galay 1993 ilaa 1994 ilaa imikan ku jira weeyi ciidamadu, mida kale dadku ha ogaadeen, haddii mid suuqa ku jiray oo ay yiqiineen ay arkeen oo maanta waxba la siinin, wuxu u heliwaayey ciidankana kuma jirin, foomna ama waraaqo muu soo buuxin ninka illaa 1993kii intuu ciidanka la bilaabay ee 250 kun ee shilinka Somaliland u badheedhay in uu ku noolado ee illaa maanta u dul qaatay ee illa maanta joogay, ee gambadha ka dagaal galay ee u hawlgalay qarankan iyo ninka kursi ku qayilaya ee maanta soo hambabaray isku mid noqon maayan, runta in laysku sheego aaya fiican, ninka soo hambabaray maanta adeer adigaa soo habsaamay wakhtigaagii, ciidamada cidna looma diidin waa lawada qoranayey nin walba waa galayey, lakiin ninka dantiisa ka waayey ee is yidhi lacagtaasi kugu filnaan mayso ee meelahasi kale iska warawareego, dee maanta hasoo hambabarine fursadu way ku seegte, ciidmada dib u gal hadii aad doonayso.”Ayuu yidhi.
Maxamed Cali Ismaciil oo isaguna halkaasi ka hadlay ayaa sheegay muddo dheer ay hawshaasi ku jireen oo ay Ciidamada oo dhan laga soo buuxiyey Foomam kala duwan kuwaasi oo ay ku qornaayeen Taariikhda ay ciidamada soo galeen iyo Haddii ay haystaan shahaadooyin jamacadeed ama tababaro dibadeed ah oo loo diray, iyo waliba haddii uu Ciidamadii SNM ka mid aha ma kuwii somaliya, qofka aqoontiisa iyo int auu ku jiray ayaa la eegeyey ee cid darajo layska siiyey ma jirto.
Ismaciil Adan Feeljeex oo isaguna gabogabadii halakasi ka hadlay ayaa sheegay in ciidamada kala duwan ee darajad la siiyey lagu dhiqidoono xeerka anshaxa Ciidanimo ee dhinca darajooyinka, isaga oo xusay in askarigii ama sarkaalkii lagu arko isaga oo darajo xidhan oo ku sugan meel xun in uu mutaysan doono in la rusqeeyo ama darajada laga rifo, waxa kale oo cidiimada Somaliland ee darajada la siiyey uga digeen in ay iska jiraan in meelaha Xun xun lagu arko isaga oo sheegay in darajadu tahay haybad loona bahan yahan in la illaaliyo.
Need for NSA’s own database questioned
WASHINGTON — He was a San Diego cab driver who fled Somalia as a teenager, winning asylum in the United States after he was wounded during fighting among warring tribes. Today, Basaaly Moalin, 36, is awaiting sentencing following his conviction on charges that he sent $8,500 to Somalia in support of the terrorist group al-Shabab.
Moalin’s prosecution, barely noticed when the case was in court, has suddenly come to the fore of a national debate about U.S. surveillance. Under pressure from Congress, senior intelligence officials have offered it as their primary example of the unique value of a National Security Agency program that collects tens of millions of phone records from Americans.
Officials have said that NSA surveillance tools have helped disrupt terrorist plots or identify suspects in 54 cases in the United States and overseas. In many of those cases, an agency program that targets the communication of foreigners, including e-mails, has proved critical.
But the importance of the phone logs in disrupting those plots has been less clear — and also far more controversial since it was revealed in June.
Across a dozen years of records collection, critics say, the government has offered few instances in which the massive storehouse of Americans’ records contained the first crucial lead that cracked a case — and even those, they say, could have been obtained through a less intrusive method.
“There’s no reason why NSA needed to have its own database containing the phone records of millions of innocent Americans in order to get the information related to Moalin,” said Sen. Mark Udall, D-Colo., a Senate Intelligence Committee member who has been pressing officials for evidence of the program’s effectiveness. “It could have just as easily gone directly to the phone companies with an individualized court order.”
U.S. officials say that the NSA’s programs often work in conjunction with one another — and that taking away a critical ability such as the “bulk collection” of phone records would undermine the agency’s effort to prevent terrorist attacks.
“You essentially have a range of tools at your disposal — one or more of these tools might tip you to a plot, other [tools] might then give you an exposure as to what the nature of that plot is,” NSA Deputy Director John Inglis told a Senate panel last week. “Finally, the exercise of multiple instruments of power, to include law enforcement power, ultimately completes the picture and allows you to interdict that plot.”
The NSA collects its vast digital archive of phone records under a provision of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. U.S. officials emphasize that those logs do not contain the names of customers or content — just “metadata,” which includes phone numbers and the times and dates of calls. They note that they need a “reasonable, articulable suspicion” that a number they wish to check in the database is linked to a foreign terrorist group.
And they say that without having all the calls in one place and easily searchable with a keystroke, finding links to suspicious numbers would be tedious and time-consuming.
Moalin’s lawyer said he is surprised that counterterrorism officials have cited his client’s case as a hallmark success.
“The notion that this case could be used to justify a mass collection of data is mind-boggling, considering it’s $8,500 that went to Somalia,” said Joshua Dratel, who denied that his client sent money to the terrorist group.
It was a tip that put Moalin on the FBI’s radar in 2003. But when investigators found no link to terrorism, they closed the case. Then, in 2007, the NSA came up with a number in Somalia that it believed was linked to al-Shabab. It ran the number against its database.
Inglis said officials had no idea whether the number had ties to any number in the United States. “In order to find the needle that matched up against that number, we needed the haystack,” he said.
The NSA found that the San Diego number had had “indirect” contact with “an extremist outside the United States,” FBI Deputy Director Sean Joyce told the Senate last week. The agency passed the number to the FBI, which used an administrative subpoena to identify it as Moalin’s. Then, according to court records, in late 2007, the bureau obtained a wiretap order and over the course of a year listened to Moalin’s conversations. About 2,000 calls were intercepted.
Over several months in 2008, prosecutors say, Moalin arranged for the transfer of several thousand dollars to al-Shabab. They say he sent the money to a prominent al-Shabab military leader named Aden Hashi Ayro and other associates. In May 2008, Ayro was killed by a U.S. cruise missile strike.
In 2009, an FBI field intelligence group assessed that Moalin’s support for al-Shabab was not ideological. Rather, according to an FBI document provided to his defense team, Moalin probably sent money to an al-Shabab leader out of “tribal affiliation” and to “promote his own status” with tribal elders.
In 2010, three years after the bureau opened an investigation, it arrested Moalin as he was about to board a flight to Somalia to visit his wife and children.
Prosecutors alleged that Moalin and some acquaintances were sending money to al-Shabab to finance attacks against the transitional government of Somalia and allied fighters from Ethiopia, as well as civilians.
In the calls, Moalin is heard speaking to a man called “Sheikalow,” who prosecutors allege was Ayro, the al-Shabab commander. In one call, Sheikalow can be heard telling Moalin that it was “time to finance the jihad.”
Moalin’s defense attorneys argued that the voice was in fact that of a local police chief from Moalin’s home region, who sometimes goes by the name of Sheikalow. The police chief testified in a video deposition that he spoke with Moalin. The reference to jihad was about fighting the Ethiopians, not the West, Dratel said. He said the men were sending money to help build schools and orphanages.
In February, a jury convicted Moalin and three acquaintances — all Somali immigrants — on conspiracy to provide material support to terrorism. Moalin faces up to life in prison.
U.S. officials argue that Moalin’s number probably would not have surfaced — at least not in a timely fashion — had it not been for the database. And they draw a parallel with the period before the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.
The NSA, targeting a safehouse in Yemen, intercepted seven calls from hijacker Khalid al-Mihdhar. But the NSA didn’t know where he was calling from. “Lacking the originating phone number, NSA analysts concluded that al-Mihdhar was overseas,” the Justice Department said in recently declassified reports to Congress on the phone records program.
“In fact, al-Mihdhar was calling from San Diego,” the reports said.
Had the intelligence community known where Mihdhar and a co-conspirator were and detained them, the “simple fact of their detention could have derailed the plan,” the 9/11 Commission said. To close that gap, the government created the phone call database. The goal, the reports say, is to “rapidly identify any terrorist threats emanating from within the United States.”
The NSA could put together a more limited dataset by going to every phone company and asking for all the numbers that have been in contact with a target number. But that takes time, and if analysts want to examine secondary contacts, they would have to go back to the phone company, officials said.
Such arguments do not persuade critics, even when the government asserts that the database helped break another case involving a co-conspirator in a plot to bomb the New York City subway system. “In both cases,” Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., said recently on the Senate floor, “the government had all the information it needed to go to the phone company and get an individual court order.”
If time was of the essence, he said, a different court order or administrative subpoena would allow for an emergency request for the records. Wyden noted that both Moalin and the subway plot co-conspirator were arrested “months or years after they were first identified” by mining the phone logs.
The bottom line, said Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., a House Intelligence Committee member, is that even if the program is “only occasionally successful, there’s still no justification that I can see for obtaining that amount of data in the first place.”
Timothy Edgar, a former deputy privacy officer at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, said that he had pushed for a middle ground solution that would let the phone companies hold the data and perform the link analysis.
“You wouldn’t have this problem of having this massive database in the hands of the government, where the government is saying, ‘Trust us,’ ” said Edgar, who is now at Brown University’s Watson Institute for International Affairs.
Following the uproar about the NSA’s far-reaching collection of phone data, U.S. officials have said they are willing to discuss revisions. At the Senate hearing last week, Robert Litt, general counsel for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, said the administration is open to seeing “whether there are changes that can be made that are consistent with preserving the essence of the program, and yet provide greater public confidence.”
Source: Washington Post
SOMALIA: WARBIXIN IYO SAWIRADA DIYAARADA ETHIOPIA EE KU BURBURTAY GAROONKA DIYAARADAHA EE MUQDISHO
Muqdisho - Diyaaradii hubka siday ee saaka dabka ku qabsaday garoonka diyaaradaha Muqdisho ayaa lagu guuleystay in la damiyo, inkastoo mararka qaar la maqlayay qaraxyo ay sameyneyso, maadaama hub kala duwan uu saarnaa diyaarada.
Diyaarada oo ay ku gubatay wadada Run-wayga ee diyaaradaha ka haadaan, ayaa keentay in diyaarado badan oo saakay garoonka ka soo degay ay ku xayirmaan, sida diyaarada Turkish Airlines oo saakay abaarihii 8-da subaxnimo soo degtay.
Ciidamada AMISOM ee qeybta dab damiska ayaa ku guuleystay inay baqtiyaan dab qabsaday diyaarad saakay ku bur burtay garoonka diyaaradaha Muqdisho, taasoo waday hub.
Xukuumada Soomaaliya ayaa xaqiijisay in garoonka diyaaradaha Aadan Cadde Air Port ay ku bur burtay diyaarad xamuul ah, iyadoo magacawday Gudi baara sababihii keenay shilka diyaaradeed.
Inkastoo aanay Xukuumada sheegin waxa ay aheyd diyaaradan, ayaa Afhayeenka Xukuumada Ridwaan Xaaji Cabdiweli uu sheegay in diyaaradan ay cilad farsame awgeed ay u bur burtay.
Gudiga xaqiiqo raadinta ee baaraya diyaaradan laga lahaa Itoobiya ee ku bur burtay garoonka Muqdisho ayaa waxaa Gudoomiye u ah Wasiir kuxigeenka Warfaafinta, Boostada iyo isgaarsiinta C/shakuur Cali Mire, waxaana xubno ka ah Taliyeyaasha Ciidamada, Booliska, Nabadsugida iyo xooga dalka.
Hadaba xubnaha Gudigan ayaa waxay kala yihiin sidan:
1- Cabdishakuur Cali Mire, Wasiir ku-xeenka War. B.I & Gaadiidka, ahna ku-simaha wasiirka – Guddoomiye
2- Cali Maxamuud, Maareeyaha Guud Hay’adda Duulimaada Rayidka & S.H – Xubin
3- Gen. Cabdixakiim Daahir “Saacid”, Taliyaha Ciidankia Booliska Soomaaliyeed – Xubin
4- Gen. Bashir Maxamed Jama, Agaasimaha Guud ee Hay’adda Nabsugidda Qaranka – Xubin
5- Gen. Daahir Aadan Cilmi, Taliyaha Xoogga Dalka Soomaaliyeed – Xubin
6- AMISOM, Wakiil – Xubin (dib laga soo magacaabo)
7- SKA, Wakiil – Xubin (dib laga soo magacaabo)
Daawo Sawirada burburka diyaaradda
SOMALIA: AL-SHABAAB CHIEFS USE EID PRAYERS TO CALL FOR HOLY WAR
Al-Shabaab leaders Friday took advantage of Eid-el-Fitr prayers to urge more Somalis to join jihad (holy war) against forces protecting the federal government in Mogadishu.
Accompanied by their heavily armed lieutenants, the militants said their push for an Islamic state would not be stopped by African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom) troops.
Sheikh Fu’ad Mohamed Khalaf alias Shongole, a senior leader within Al-Shabaab ranks, joined hundreds of faithful for the prayers to mark end of the holy month of Ramadhan at the coastal town of Barawe.
Shongole,
who is wanted by the US sponsoring and spreading terror in Somalia and
beyond, called on islamists to maintain unity. Last year, the US State
Department offered a $5 million reward for information leading to his
capture and conviction.
“We have to defend our push to establish an Islamic state where Sharia laws are implemented,” the hard-line cleric, who has been leading awareness campaigns for Al-Shabaab, said.His statement comes at a time internal rifts are reportedly plaguing the movement. Indeed some of Shongole’s own colleagues— Ibrahim al-Afghani and Abdihamid Hashi Olhaye alias Moalim Burhan— died in an intra-Al-Shabaab confrontation in Barawe Town in June.
In central region, Sheikh Hassan Yakoub, Al-Shabaab’s Wali (governor) in Galgadud, joined worshippers in Eelbuur town for the special prayers.
Sheikh Yakoub, a former governor of Kismayu, urged the public to join jihad.
“The war will continue until the troops supporting the (Somali) government are kicked out of the country,” he said.
Source: Nation
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Xog Muhiim Ah: Al-qaacida oo La Ogaaday In Ay Soo Saareen Miino Lagu Samaynayo Jirka Bini`aadamka Oo Aan Qalab lagu ogaan karin.
Digniino kasoo baxay dowladda Mareykanka ayaa waxa ay sheegayaan
kadib baaritaano in ururka Al Qacida ay ka sameeyeen horumar casri ah
dhanka iyo miinooyinka Ismiidaaminta ah oo ay isku xirijireen.Waxaa la aaminsanyahay in Injineerka sameynta Miinooyinka uqaabilsan urur Al Qaacida Ibrahim al Siriri uu soo saaray Miino dareera ah oo lagu mudayo qofka isqarxinaya iyo mid Jirka gudahiisa la dhex geliyo taas oo aan awoodi karin in ay soo qabato Qalabka lagu baaro miinooyinka iyo walxa qarxa e yaalla goobaha danaha guud oo ay kamid tahay Airportska.
Walaaca fara badan ee ka qixiyay dowladaha reer galbeedka dalka Yemen ayaa imanaya xili Al Qacida ay qiratay inay soo saareen miinooyin casri ah oo qalab waliba hadii la marsiiyo ruuxa ay ku dhex jirto aan marnaba sheegi karin.
Arrintaan ayaa abuurtay cabsi badan xili Al Qacidada ugu badnayd caalamka la filaayo inay isku aruursanayaan gudaha dalka Yemen qorshe weeraro waji cusub wata ay damacsan yihiin.
by abdirisak
Friday, August 9, 2013
Somalia: A Plane Carries Military Weapon Crashes in Mogadishu's Airport
 |
| Images from the Crashed Ethiopian Airplane loaded with weapon |
Mogadishu — At least four people were on Friday morning killed and two others seriously wounded in airplane crashed in Mogadishu's Aadan Cadde international airport, reports said. Witnesses told Shabelle Media station in Mogadishu that the plane belonged to the Ethiopian air-force and was carrying weapons and ammunition that has been crashed in airport.
They [witnesses] added that they have seen flames have been rising from the plane. There was no immediate word on where the aircraft was flying from. Government officials have not made any comments on the crashed plane in Mogadishu's airport.
It is the first time that Ethiopian military plane crashes in Mogadishu's Aadan Cadde international airport.
The African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) said on Twitter two crew members were rescued from the Ethiopian Air Force plane and are being treated for injuries.
The cause of the crash is not clear. Ethiopia has not commented on the situation.
Ethiopia is helping the Somali government battle the Al-Shabab insurgent group, which is trying to impose a strict version of Islamic law on Somalia.
The AMISOM peacekeeping mission, which is also fighting the insurgency, expressed "heartfelt condolences" over the accident.
5 New Countries That Might Exist By 2025
With violence in Xinjiang continuing and tensions in Chechnya and Dagestan back in the public consciousness, it seems almost cliché to say the end of the sprawling, imperial nation-state is here, or at least not far off. Hell, a couple thousand signatures for an independent Texas got the foreign press questioning if even the U.S. wasn’t immune from secessionist conflict.
Now, have the massive, multi-ethnic superpowers of the modern world really reached their breaking point? The answer’s a big, emphatic no. While there’s certainly no shortage of secessionist claims in Russia, China, and the surrounding geopolitical region they dabble in, it’s unlikely we’ll see any new (internationally recognized) countries emerge from the Caucuses or Central Asia. A major precedent — any one secessionist success story — could set off new fervor in any number of independence-minded areas that could radically undermine the neighborhood superpowers’ international standing. For the leaders of Russia and China, maintaining their borders against secessionist challenges is an essential part of maintaining their political legitimacy. Sorry, Tibet.
But that’s not to say altogether new countries aren’t on the horizon. With a spate of referendums on the way in several advanced democracies and increasingly-loud secessionist calls in younger, less stable countries, a handful of very different states may be breaking on to the international scene in the near future. Here are a handful of the potential contenders for newest kid on the international block.
1. Scotland
Via: David Gordon
As far as independence movements go, Scotland has it made — the Scottish National Party, the country’s largest political party, already has cleared out its calender for a September 18, 2014 referendum.
But what makes the Scottish case unique isn’t just the planning ahead. It’s that the state they may be separating from, the United Kingdom, is actually OK with the whole idea of an independent Scotland. Prime Minister David Cameron signed off on a legal framework for referendum to take place alongside First Minister of Scotland Alex Salmond last fall. With the biggest obstacle to succession — the ability to secede — taken care of, the Scottish question becomes one of nuts and bolts: can the Scottish economy be self-sustaining? How will an independent Scotland relate to the UK? The EU? What about military and foreign issues?
On some of these grounds Scotland may very well be better off on its own. An independent military coupled with close UK relations would cost Scots significantly less than they’re paying now to support the British force. Greater authority over tax and fiscal policy could help Scottish lawmakers better tackle distinctly Scottish social problems like education inequality — the disparity in educational attainment between the rest of the UK and Scotland is equivalent to that of Hong Kong and Turkey, according to LSE economists. But independence isn’t utopia: pensions could be squeezed, inheritance of a portion of the UK’s national debt is still up in the air, and, even then, independence-minded Scots are polling behind their unity minded neighbors by a significant, though shrinking, margin, about 9%. But with this case, one thing is rather certain: it is going to be the people that decide.
2. Catalonia
Via: Belle News
With Spain’s economy in shambles and PM Mariano Rajoy increasingly mired in scandal, it’s no wonder calls for Catalan independence have grown stronger (and maybe even more compelling) as Catalonia rumbles toward the controversial 2014 referendum. Home to one of Europe’s biggest metropolitan areas, Barcelona, Catalonia has seen hundreds of thousands of citizens turn out for protests in favor of independence despite the Spanish constitution’s ban on secession.
An independent Catalonia could be sustainable too: the region, about the size of Belgium, accounts for a quarter of Spain’s total exports, and Spain takes more than it gives, spending only 57 cents in the region for every dollar of taxes collected there. Ban Ki-Moon and David Cameron have offered some support for Catalan self-determination. It’s been suggested that about 60% of Catalan citizens support secession, but hard-line opposition to independence in the rest of the country may hamper what would seem like a done deal in many other nations.
3. Republika Srpska
Milorad Dodick "has no faith in Bosnia-Herzegovina." The downright Putin-esque leader of the Republika Srpska (or Serb Republic), one of two political entities that make up Bosnia-Herzegovina, has made no secret of his general contempt for the rest of the state of which he’s ostensibly a part. And while his claim the "Nobody can prevent us from holding a referendum" may seem bold, with Serbian-Kosovo relations on the up and up, there's a legitimate precedent set for successful (albeit bloody) succession in the Balkans.
Foreign investment in Republika Srpska is relatively high given its endowments, and its precedents — Kosovo and Montenegro — were arguably worse off at the time of independence. Heck, Dodick has claimed he doesn't even need a UN seat. Given that Srpska is already more or less autonomous and that its people view themselves as fundamentally separate from the Bosnian Muslims of the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina, a referendum may be just the spark to start the fire.
4. Quebec
Via: Peter Jones, Reuters
Quebec will be watching the results of the Scottish and Catalan referendums particularly closely next year. If successful, they’ll provide a framework for how the majority French-speaking Canadian province goes forward with its long and tortuous efforts to become a sovereign state. Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper's approval ratings have plummeted as his administration has become embroiled in scandal, which has only served to bolster the separatist Parti Quebecois — a situation not too dissimilar from Catalonia's.
Close shaves with independence in a 1995 referendum and earlier granted Quebec with a great deal of autonomy over internal dealings — immigration, health care, and education — but monetary and foreign policy remain squarely in Ottawa. But while the separatist PQ holds a majority in the Quebec legislature, it has had to backtrack on promises and water down its agenda in order to gain opposition support. Independence, for the next few years at the very least, may be off the table. But Catalonia and Scotland could reignite this smoldering debate.
5. Somaliland
Via: Ben Stanstall, AFP
Somaliland, tucked in between Ethiopia and the southern coast of the Gulf of Aden, takes the expected secessionist paradigm and flips it on its head: a relatively stable, moderate democracy looking for independence from a country synonymous with failed governance, Somalia. And while Somaliland certainly has its reputation as an oasis of peace in the Horn of Africa going for it, little progress toward recognition as a sovereign state has been made since it declared independence during the Somali Civil War in 1991— so far, no states recognize the region of 3.5 million.
But that may be changing. The state of Somalia is been cautiously improving in recent years, meaning a formal diplomatic solution could be more likely, while the EU and the African Union set precedent in 2007 by meeting with the breakaway government to discuss the region's future. There’s some debate as to the economic viability of an independent Somaliland — like much of Somalia, it's devastatingly poor — but foreign investment brought on by formal recognition could help reverse the pattern. But until someone's state department takes the plunge, independence may be a long ways off.
http://www.policymic.com/articles/58617/5-new-countries-that-might-exist-by-2025
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