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Saturday, April 6, 2013

Aid groups fear impact of US austerity budget


The US Congress has slashed $85bn (£56bn) from the federal budget through the end of September. Now, foreign aid groups that rely on US support fear the cuts will devastate the people in the most desperate need.

The US budget cuts trim programmes at home and abroad
When Jeremy Konyndyk, director of policy for Mercy Corps, talks about budget cuts in the US, he barely mentions the impact the reductions will have on Americans.

Instead, he worries about people overseas - such as those he met recently in Niger.

In January, Konyndyk visited a village in the county's Ouallam region, roughly 62 miles (100km) from Niamey, where he met a group of about 20 women who had received a goat through a food-security programme.

"This programme at least gives them some prospects for getting through the drought without getting totally wiped out," he says. The budget cuts, he says, will make it harder to help those and other women in Niger.
US funds are helping tamp down violence in Mali, where French troops have beat back Islamist rebels
The US Congress has slashed $85bn from US spending for this fiscal year, which ends in October. The deficit reduction measures are referred to in Washington DC jargon as sequestration.

In Washington, White House officials say the cuts will affect everything from White House tours (cancelled) to domestic airline flights (delayed). Despite those claims, though, some of the cuts to the budget will barely be felt.

"It's not the end of the world," says Gordon Adams, an American University professor who was a senior budget official in the Clinton White House. "It's a haircut."

But the cuts affect not only Americans - people around the world will see its impact.

“About a million kids won't be vaccinated”

Tom Hart US executive director for the ONE campaign

European officials may spend less time in meetings, for example, because their counterparts in Washington will be making fewer overseas trips. Some Pentagon officials have already cancelled trips to Europe this spring.

But for people living in other parts of the world, the impact could be more significant.

The US is the world's largest provider of humanitarian aid, according to the London-based Overseas Development Institute. The US also offers military assistance to countries in the Middle East and other regions and funds programmes for global health, refugee aid and more.

The March law writing the cuts into the budget slashed funding for these and other programmes by roughly 5%.

More than $2.7bn will be taken from state department foreign operations and other programmes, according to the Congressional Research Service.

In some cases the cuts will affect government institutions in other countries. Aid to countries such as Egypt (the US provides roughly $1.3bn annually to its military) and Israel (roughly $3bn annually) also may be reduced.

The budgetary reductions will have an impact on individuals, say aid workers, since the cuts will be applied to programmes already stretched thin.

Contributions to international peacekeeping, which helps to tamp down on violence in conflict-ridden countries such as Mali, will be reduced by $20m.

And funds for humanitarian programmes, which help families in the Horn of Africa and other places in crisis, will be cut by roughly $200m, state department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland has said.

Efforts to fight disease in Africa may also be affected, since global health programmes will lose more than $400m in US funding.

"We work on programmes for the most needy people on the planet," says Tom Hart, US executive director for the ONE Campaign, the advocacy group founded by U2's Bono.

"These people are living on the edge. About a million kids won't be vaccinated. A million bed nets that prevent malaria won't be distributed."
Communities in Niger receive US assistance for agricultural programmes

Hart and other advocates fear the lives of many people overseas will become harder if aid programmes, which include food security and agricultural projects, are reduced.

And many humanitarian aid workers say their programmes are already financially strapped.

"At this point, we are facing an acute number of crises," says Jeremy Kadden, a senior legislative manager at InterAction, a consortium of non-governmental organisations based in the US. "We have more people in need than ever before."

Konyndyk of Mercy Corps says the budget cuts chip away at efforts to help people in other parts of the world and put Americans in a bind.

"The government is faced with a kind of Sophie's choice," he says. "Which disaster do you save?"
 

Chatham House report: Famine risks are badly managed



Despite early warnings, donors seem reluctant to intervene

Famine early warning systems have a good track record of predicting food shortages but are poor at triggering early action, a report has concluded.

The study said the opportunity for early action was being missed by governments and humanitarian agencies.

It said the "disconnect" was starkly apparent in Somalia where no action was taken despite 11 months of warnings.

Up to two million people are estimated to have died in drought-related emergencies since 1970.

The report by UK think-tank Chatham House, Managing Famine Risk: Linking Early Warning to Early Action, looked at the issue of drought-related emergencies on a global scale but focused on the Horn of Africa and the Sahel regions.

"The regions are quite unique in a way because you have these droughts, where there are normally successive failed rains; then you have a process whereby you have subsequent harvest failures then people adopt coping strategies," explained report author Rob Bailey.

"They start selling off assets, running down food reserves, taking on credit - they get themselves into an increasingly desperate situation."

Mr Bailey, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, said that after a period of time the coping strategies became exhausted, triggering a famine.

"But the whole process can take 11 months from start to finish, and that is why there is an opportunity to intervene early," he told BBC News.

"Yet despite this very significant opportunity and despite analysis showing that when you do intervene early it costs less and you save more lives, it does not happen."

Gambling with lives

The main reason, he observed, why there was a delay, was a result of perceived political risk by governments.

"Ultimately, early action requires government action," he added.

"It requires donor governments - like the UK and US - to write a cheque early on before the crisis is at its worse phase, and that is a big ask for governments to do because governments are primarily concerned with managing the political risks to themselves.

"They see political risks in funding these sorts of things because budgets are tight and public support for aid spending is less than it used to be, so it is seen as a particularly risky endeavour at the moment."

If the early action by donor governments prevented the crisis, that could also cause problems as well because it could be argued that there was not a crisis waiting to happen in the first place.
Unstable political systems can complicate aid efforts to help starving people during famines
Mr Bailey cited the 2011 famine in Somalia as an example where the issue of political risk shaped the global response to the humanitarian emergency.

"That was not a result of early warning information - it was probably the single most documented and monitored evolution of famine in history," he explained.

"But still no early action happened and probably the main reason for that is because the areas of Somalia that were at most risk where under control of a Jihadist militia, which the US and other western donor nations categorise as a terrorist organisation."

He added that there was concern among donor nations that carrying out humanitarian missions in those areas could strengthen the position of the militia, especially if aid ended up in the hands of the group.

Counting the cost

Early warning systems were first introduced in the Sahel and Horn of Africa regions in the early 1980s when it was first realised that it was possible to track the "chronology of famine".

"Since then, things have got a lot more sophisticated so now there are early warning systems that use satellite to estimate harvests more effectively, how much pasture is available. We have more much more sophisticated weather forecasting models." Mr Bailey said.

"They also use a lot more household-gathered data, where infants are weighed and malnutrition is quantified. Also, it is monitored whether certain coping strategies, that are recognised as pre-famine indicators, are becoming established."

He explained that a full-blown emergency response was very expensive, so there was a strong financial argument to act sooner rather than later.

"When you are at the situation where malnutrition rates are very high and people are dying then you need to be moving very large amounts of food, medicines and healthcare products through pipelines to areas where access is often very poor.

"Humanitarian agencies have often said that early intervention is cheaper. There was a study carried out recently that looked at the potential savings of acting sooner rather than later.

"This involved a range of initiatives, such as pre-positioning of food and medicine supplies so agencies are able to source them earlier, perhaps when prices were lower."

A recent study looked at intervention costs in Kenya and southern Ethiopia over two decades. It found that, on average, early intervention resulted in a saving of US$1,000 per person.

"This is serious money when multiplied by the number of people affected in these situations," Mr Bailey calculated. An estimated 18 million people were affected during the Sahel crisis last year, he added.
It is estimated that earlier intervention saves aid budgets about $1,000 per person affected by famine
Drought-related emergencies, particularly in the Horn of Africa and Sahel regions, were unlikely to go away in the future, projected scenarios showed.

"I think there is a very strong case to be made that the agricultural trends, the demographic trends and the climatic trends are pointing towards a rapidly deteriorating risk outlook," Mr Bailey said.

"The key message is that early warning systems give us a real opportunity to manage that risk really effectively.

"It is very rare that you can have a risk that can be so well understood and predicted, and give us such an opportunity to intervene and mitigate it."

Horn of Africa Security Brief

Horn of Africa: Omar Hammami gives interview to Wired Magazine; U.S. sanctions against Somalia extended one year; Kenyan government to withdraw 1,000 troops from Somalia; Uhuru Kenyatta meets with U.S. Ambassador to Kenya; gunmen kill student in Garissa, Kenya; gunmen kill tribal elder in Marka, Lower Shabelle region; gunmen open fire on truck between Marergur and Gudinlabe, Galgudud region; two Kenyan men charged with being members of al Shabaab

  • Omar Hammami gave an interview to Wired Magazine’s Danger Room website, published on April 4. He discussed his break with al Shabaab, his presence on Twitter, and his commitment to continuing to wage jihad against U.S. interests.[1]
  • U.S. President Barack Obama extended sanctions against Somalia for one year on April 4. The announcement cited the need to hinder spoilers of the country’s stability.[2]
  • The Kenyan government will withdraw 1,000 troops from Somalia’s Jubba regions, after the deployment of 850 Sierra Leonean troops to Kismayo, Lower Jubba, according to an April 4 announcement by Kenyan military spokesman Cyrus Oguna.[3]
  • Kenyan President-elect Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy, William Ruto, met with U.S. Ambassador to Kenya Robert Codec on April 5. Codec reportedly relayed a congratulatory message from President Obama.[4]
  • Gunmen shot and killed a student and wounded three other civilians on April 4 in Garissa, Kenya.[5]
  • Gunmen shot and killed Mohamud Mohamed Hussein, also known as Sablaale, a tribal elder in Marka, Lower Shabelle region. The elder had participated in the constitution-adoption process, and in the selection of the federal parliament in 2012.[6]
  • Gunmen manning a roadblock opened fire on and robbed a truck in an area between Marergur and Gudinlabe, Galgudud region on April 5. At least five people were wounded in the incident.[7]
  • Two Kenyan men from Garissa, Yunus Swaleh Salim and Khamisi Juma Hussein, were charged with belonging to al Shabaab in a Nairobi court in Kenya on April 3.[8]      
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[1] Spencer Ackerman, “’There’s No Turning Back’: My Interview With a Hunted American Jihadist,” Wired, April 4, 2013. Available: http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2013/04/omar-hammami/all/

[2] Barack Obama, “Letter -- Continuation of the National Emergency with Respect to Somalia,” The White House Office of the Press Secretary, April 5, 2013. Available: http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/04/04/letter-continuation-national-emergency-respect-somalia\
Julian Pecquet, “Obama renews sanctions against Somalia despite new government,” The Hill, April 4, 2013. Available: http://thehill.com/blogs/global-affairs/africa/291951-obama-renews-sanctions-against-somalia-despite-new-government

[3] “Breaking News: Kenya to Pull-Out a Battalion of Its Troops from Somalia,” Raxan Reeb, April 4, 2013. Available: http://www.raxanreeb.com/2013/04/breaking-news-kenya-to-pull-out-a-battalion-of-its-troops-from-somalia/

[4] “Obama Urges Uhuru, Ruto to build on gains of new constitution,” The Nation, April 5, 2013. Available: http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Uhuru-Ruto-meet-US-Ambassador-/-/1064/1740096/-/b3cxvrz/-/index.html

[5] “Student Killed, 3 Injured in Garissa Attack,” Standard Media, April 5, 2013. Available: http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000080898&story_title=Kenya-Student-killed,-3-injured-in-Garissa-attack

[6] “Somalia: Elder Who Helped Selection of MPs is Assassinated in Marka Town,” Raxan Reeb, April 5, 2013. Available: http://www.raxanreeb.com/2013/04/somalia-elder-who-helped-selection-of-mps-is-assassinated-in-marka-town/

[7] “Five Injured in Banditry Attack in Galgadud,” Bar Kulan, April 5, 2013. Available: http://www.bar-kulan.com/2013/04/05/five-injured-in-banditry-attack-in-galgadud/

[8] “Two Deny Links to al Shabaab Group,” Daily Nation, April 3, 2013. Available: http://www.nation.co.ke/News/Two-deny-links-to-al-Shabaab-group-/-/1056/1738844/-/bxlshr/-/index.html