Oil discoveries at the Kenya-Somalia offshore border may increase inter-state armed conflict between the two countries

 

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By Eng. Mahmud Hassan,

East Africa’s coast extends from Somalia in the north, through Kenya and Tanzania, all the way to Mozambique in the south. There are also several islands in between such as Madagascar, Seychelles and Comoros. The recent oil and gas discoveries in East Africa (EA) particularly in Mozambique and Tanzania attracted increasing attention from many international oil and gas companies who desire to get a portion of EA’s offshore resources in order to boost their profits.

As this can influence border disputes however, it can also replicate similar issues where many EA countries have disputes on inland borders and border Lakes such as Lake Albert, Lake Victoria, and Lake Malawi after resources were discovered. Similarly, following the rumours of the existence of natural resources (Oil and gas) in trans-boundary areas between Somalia and Kenya may increase inter-state and armed conflict.

This article reflects what is currently taking place across the Somalia-Kenya offshore border where Kenya recently awarded six oil and gas blocks to the international oil companies (IOC), within Somali offshore territory approximately 120,000 km². As shown in figure1; IOCs from Italy, Norway, USA and France are tended to be exploiting the trans-boundary area.

It was apparent that those greedy alliances’ aim is to plunder Somalia’s offshore hydrocarbon resources and this has become more obvious since Kenya started invading southern Somalia in October 2011 while its allies such as France, Italy and Norway kept quiet about the invasion.

However, after Somalia parliament and Somalia people rejected both governments’ endeavour to reach a deal, some companies such as Anadarko and Statoil have abandoned their transgression wishes.

In addition, Kenya’s supporting the creation of self-autonomous regions across the border called Jubba-land seems to have failed due to the consciousness showed by the Somali government and its’ people. This administration’s denial of Kenya invaded Somalia water reinforced the suspicion that Kenya would like to keep Somalia unstable, preferring a weak Somali government and smaller puppet states within Somalia which would conveniently wanted to allow Kenya to exploit the trans-boundary resources in Somalia’s territorial waters.

Below map shows position of DSDP/ drill sites. Also experts speculated the area in existence of huge amount oil and gas deposit. DSDP site 241, which is the richest drilled well so far in East Africa’s deep water, is located in the Somali basin. If Kenya gets what they want the DSDP well will be on their site while currently situated in Somalia site according to 2009 preliminary information for Somalia continental shelf(see figure2).

Moreover, three blocks awarded to Italy’s ENI are located in this area whilst another three, awarded to US, French and Norwegian IOCs straddle Somali territory (See figure 1). The question is whether ENI and its mafia bosses are looking for a new approach towards Somalia’s offshore or might this be a new form of colonialism in the 21century.

The inner map shows an old colonial map from Maritime Jurisdiction sketched in 1926; the area hatched in blue belongs to Somalia according to ex-colonial map agreed between Italy and British government.

Kenya already patrols this area strictly with its navy forces while they kept pushing its agenda through persuasion to the Somalia government demarcation to reach a deal on maritime.

After several attempts, Kenya failed to convince Somalia to reach a deal whether it is financial or technical delineation. Currently Somalia logged on Court application to the International court of

Justice (ICJ). This court will decide the demarcation line between Somalia and Kenya maritime. Unfortunately, Somalia side even didn’t mention the existence of international colonial border which Britain and Italy agreed on 1926 that should not be changed easily similarly to the inland borders between the two countries.

What Somalia Government doesn’t know is that Kenya built strong alliances including oil companies and many commonwealth countries that are helping Kenya to prepare for its maritime boundary negotiations with Somalia which they also could offer best maritime lawyers. It is all about resources that oil and gas companies should discover oil and gas in Somalia water and want to get it either use by force or other possible methods.

In 2010, according to the Commonwealth website, its secretariat’s maritime boundary specialists held a workshop for government officials to prepare the country for its maritime boundary negotiations with Somalia because “establishing clear maritime boundaries will have important implications for security, shipping, environmental protection, fishing and offshore resource exploration in the region.”

The other question is whether Somalia is going to prepare well in advance or it will be surprised by sudden loss after the final decision hearing and consequently going to war “typically Somali way”.

Other issues related to this boom in EA is that EA’s offshore industry is at a very early stage in its oil and gas development and lacks its own infrastructure, regulations and standards on HSE field such as emergency response, safety training, risk assessment and regulations.

There are many oil and gas companies which are operating in the EA offshore at the present such as Anadarko, ENI, Dominion petroleum, Soma oil, Shell, Tullow, CNOOC, Total, ExxonMobil, Petronas, Canadian Africa Oil Corporation, Norwegian Statoil, BG group and Ophir Energy, Total France and many more. In such exploration and production activities, there are accidents which are related to offshore drilling such as blowouts, fires, oil spillages and other environmental disasters. Thus oil and gas companies operating in such areas where the infrastructure and regulatory regime is undeveloped would arguably be unable to respond if a major accident strikes offshore the East African region. For instance, if major accidents similar to Piper Alpha in the North Sea or the Gulf of Mexico oil spill were to occur in this young, undeveloped area the damage would be beyond belief since the region is currently a new frontier and lacks infra structure and good regulatory system.

References

1. Thomson, C., 2011. Oil explorers push boundaries of political, geological risk. The financial times
2. Coffin, M. F., Lemont-Dehort , Robinowitz, P. D., 1982. A Multichannel Seismic Transect of the Somalian Continental Margin. GTC 4259
3. Wadhams, N., 2010. Is east Africa the next frontier for oil? Time, 10 March 2010
4. Beckman, J. 2011. Mozambique wells reveal major frontier gas province. Offshore magazine.
5. OILWATCH AFRICA, May 2010. Oil Production in Africa: Livelihoods and Environment at Stake: Should Oil Rather Remain in the Ground?.
6. East Africa community secretariat, 2008. Strategy for the development of regional refineries.
7. Reuters, 2012. Kenya, Somalia border row threatens oil exploration. April 20, 2012.
8. Okumo, W. 2010. Resources and border disputes in East Africa. Journal of East Africa studies (2), pp.279-297.
9. Matchette-Downes C. & Cameron N.,2005 .Now is the time for East Africa
10. Weeden, S. 2011. East Africa Boasts Newest Gas Bonanzas. E&P
11. Duey, R., 2009. Black Marlin sails to new play. Epmag

Author: Mahmud Hassan Mohammed,
MBA oil and gas management and MSc engineering
Contacts: xamuud@gmail.com