Foreign and Defense Policy, Terrorism: Keep an eye on Somalia

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Editor’s note: This post is based on a longer analysis of al Shabaab’s activities in Somalia. To view the full article, please visit www.CriticalThreats.org.

Image Credit: Shutterstock

Last fall, the withdrawal of al Shabaab, al Qaeda’s affiliate in Somalia, from a major port city, Kismayo, in the south of the country was heralded as a major blow to the terrorist group and a final stage in the collapse of al Shabaab’s quasi-state. Since then, the group has not reconstituted itself in any significant way in its former strongholds, but there are worrying signs. Al Shabaab still presents a threat to the stability of Somalia and to American interests in the region.

The answer to the question of who will control Kismayo is still outstanding. There have been growing tensions in the city as different clans vie for control of the city and surrounding region’s resources, all of which may play into al Shabaab’s hands. Like other al Qaeda affiliates and militant organizations, al Shabaab has been able to gain traction by exploiting local grievances. It has done so before in Kismayo, and there is no reason to assume that it will not seek to do so again.

Somalia is on the right path, and the momentum is still moving against al Shabaab. But we must watch these local conflicts in Kismayo and other former Shabaab-controlled cities with trepidation. The apparently minor question of local administration will play a major role in determining long-term success against al Shabaab in Somalia.

Read the latest analysis on al Shabaab at AEI’s Critical Threats Project.