Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum assesses 2013 March-May rainy season

The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum has issued its seasonal predictions for the forthcoming March-May rainy  season which is vital to agriculture and food security in a region that has been hit by both droughts and floods in recent years.

There is an increased likelihood of near normal to below normal rainfall over much of the northern part of South Sudan; southern Sudan; northern and eastern Ethiopia; eastern half of Kenya; Somalia, and eastern parts of Tanzania, according to the outlook. Specifically, it indicated a 45 percent probability of near normal rainfall, a 35 percent probability of below normal rainfall, and a 20 percent probability of above normal rainfall in these areas.

Burundi; Rwanda; Uganda; southern parts of South Sudan; southwestern and central Ethiopia; western and central Kenya as well as western half of Tanzania have an increased likelihood of normal (45 percent) to above-normal (percent) rainfall in  March-May, it said, noting a 20 per cent probability of below normal rainfall in these areas.

The climate outlook was issued at the end of a meeting organized by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), 18-20 February in Bujumbura, Burundi. Factors taken into  consideration included sea surface temperature conditions over the Western Indian and eastern tropical Atlantic Oceans, as well as neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Key processes considered also  included, the Indian Ocean Dipole, monsoonal wind systems over the region and tropical cyclone activities over Indian  Ocean sub region.

The Climate Outlook Forum brought together national experts from countries in the Greater Horn of Africa, along with  regional and international experts involved in seasonal climate prediction and users of climate early warning advisories from  sectors such as food security, health and water resources and for disaster risk reduction.

March to May constitutes an important rainfall season over the equatorial parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region.

Parts of the Greater Horn of Africa were ravaged by severe drought in 2010/2011 followed by excessive rains in various  equatorial areas including parts of Kenya and southern Somalia.

The outlook is relevant only for seasonal time scales and relatively large areas. Local and month-to-month variations might  occur as the season progresses. Regional forecast updates will be provided by ICPAC while National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will provide detailed National Updates.

WMO has been supporting Regional Climate Outlook Forums around the world, ever since the inception of the first forum in  Southern Africa in 1997. Regional Climate Outlook Forums presently serve more than half the world’s population.