By Seifulaziz Milas
January
3, 2013
In
Somalia, the radical Islamist militia, Al-Shabab, that has terrorized much of
the country over the past five years, appears to be on the run. They have been
forced out of the capital, Mogadishu, and all of the major towns that were once
under their control (including Kismayo in the South). But those who believe the
Shabaab are finished could find that they are sorely mistaken.
The
eradication of Al-Shabaab, although essential to the peace and security of both
Somalia and its neighbours, is unlikely to be achieved by military force alone.
What is actually required is a coordinated and sustained regional effort to
eliminate the underlying causes of the growth of Islamist radicalism among
Somali youth including assistance to effectively address the persistent and
structural humanitarian crisis affecting most of Somalia.
Key
requirements include improved governance, and concerted efforts to rebuild and
expand Somali livelihoods, and the country’s economy. Most of the current
generation of Somalis have grown up in conditions of conflict, insecurity of
livelihood and deprivation. This has tended to make many of them vulnerable to
the arguments and promises of the Islamist militants. The new Somali Government
must avoid the corruption trap and tendencies towards dividing up the
governmental ‘cake’ along clan lines, and focus its efforts on solving the
livelihood problems faced by the majority of the country’s population.
The
new government must also urgently address humanitarian issues and start the
flow of food aid to the areas liberated from Al- Shabaab. The Shabaab alienated
large groups of people in southern and central Somalia by allowing them to die
of hunger, rather than permit aid organizations to give them food. If the
arrival of food aid, and assistance for reconstruction follows quickly in the
tracks of the Kenyan and AMISOM forces, that will strengthen the local
constituency for the elimination of Al-Shabaab in the country.
Food
aid is a necessary but temporary expedient. It helps to keep people alive,
while plans to enable them to earn a livelihood are being made. This is an area
in which there is a vital role for the international community to play in
putting Somalia back on the road to development and self-reliance.
Along
with conflict, drought and desertification are key causes of impoverishment and
destitution in large areas of Somalia and adjacent regions of Ethiopia and
Kenya. With an increasing population, there is more pressure on the land and
its limited resources. Drought and desertification disasters are occurring at
increasingly shorter intervals, with less opportunity for recovery. Hundreds of
thousands of rural households in Somalia and neighbouring regions of Ethiopia
and Kenya have lost most of the livestock on which they depend, dropping entire
communities into chronic destitution.
Implications
for the IGAD region
Regional
economic integration could make an important contribution to addressing these
shared problems, in the context of the Intergovernmental Authority for
Development (IGAD) – the Regional Economic Commission for the Horn of Africa.
It provides the institutional framework for regional economic integration,
towards increasing prosperity and integration into the global economy.
The
countries of the region are bound by history and geography in relationships of
interdependence with considerable potential for cooperation for their common
development, for example, through transport corridors to seaports, management
of shared water resources, and improved energy security.
Much
of rural Somalia is gripped in a livelihood crisis with increasingly serious
implications for human security. It is a situation that demands substantial
investment in the integrated development of the region’s land and water
resources and creating sustainable alternative livelihoods. The key
requirements for this include improved infrastructure to provide reliable
access to transport, water and affordable energy. In particular, the
rehabilitation of the country’s internal roads and their interconnection with
those of the neighbouring countries could open the way to increased trade,
economic growth and poverty reduction.
Similarly,
the ongoing oil price crisis makes affordable energy a key problem faced by
countries that like Somalia where people largely depend on oil fired
electricity generation. But this could be addressed by interconnection with
Ethiopia’s electricity grid to enable it to purchase much cheaper
hydroelectricity, a solution already agreed by Djibouti, Kenya and Sudan, in
the context of the planned East African Power Pool (EAPP).
The
EAPP is already on the way to becoming part of a new regional reality, and a
key example of regional economic integration. In September 2012 the African
Development Bank (AfDB) approved USD348 million in funding for a USD 1.26
billion project for an electricity transmission line connecting Ethiopia and
Kenya. This is a key step towards the establishment of the East African Power Pool,
which may later be connected to a Southern Africa Power Pool. The project will
promote power trade and regional integration. Djibouti is already
interconnected with Ethiopia’s power grid and buying Ethiopian hydropower at
a fraction of the cost of oil-based power generation. The same could be done
for Somalia.
Addressing
the basic issues of sustainable rural livelihoods will need to be undertaken
through forms of regional economic integration that encourage the cooperative
development of the shared water resources of this drought disaster-prone region
comprising Somalia, the Ethiopian Somali region (the Ogaden) and northeastern
Kenya. These areas are inextricably linked in terms of ethnic ties, economic
exchange and inter-dependence, shared natural resources, and the constant
cross-border movement of their pastoral populations.
The
Way Forward
There
is an important opportunity for joint development of the hydroelectric and
irrigation potential of the Shabelle and Dawa-Gennale-Juba river basins in the context
of infrastructure-led regional economic integration. The cooperative
development of the shared water resources of this drought prone region of
Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia offers considerable potential to rehabilitate the
livelihoods of their populations and put them on the path to sustainable
development and peace.
Multi-purpose
dams on the Shabelle and Dawa-Gennale-Juba rivers could contribute to the
hydroelectric power needs of the three countries, enhance their irrigation
potential, and prevent the recurrent floods that from time to time devastate
large areas of the lower Shabelle and Gennale-Juba basins, leading to serious
loss of life and property. It would need significant investment, but it would
be far cheaper than the costs of chronic conflict and humanitarian disasters
and the economic returns would repay the investment.
With
a million hectares of irrigable land on the Ethiopian side and hundreds of
thousands within Somalia, both countries would benefit from such development.
This would enable irrigation-based agriculture, livestock raising,
agro-processing, and employment, for those who choose to settle, as well as
those who are already settled, but are often affected by recurrent drought, and
food insecurity. It would also reduce the chronic poverty and resource
competition that are among the major underlying causes of conflict.
The
dams to be built in the two main river basins would control the massive
periodic floods like those that occurred in the lower Juba valley a decade ago,
resulting in the loss of hundreds of thousands of livestock and considerable
loss of human life. The regular availability of water would prevent the loss of
huge numbers of valuable livestock, and crops to frequent drought disasters.
Along with disaster prevention, they would also provide opportunities for
hydropower production. The availability of affordable hydropower could provide
a key economic missing link, by opening the way to agro-processing, adding
value to agricultural and livestock production, providing employment for the
population, and reducing poverty. This could also make a major contribution to
reduction of resource competition and conflict risk.
As
in India and China, labour-intensive light manufacturing has significant
potential to put the Horn of Africa on the road to development. Countries like
Ethiopia and Somalia have the necessary cheap labour for this, but what they
need to make the jump is abundant, affordable and reliable electricity, to
enable them to add value to their production, for example, by exporting meat
and leather products, rather than livestock on the hoof.
Somalia,
once it settles its internal conflicts, will be well-positioned to benefit from
regional economic integration. This, of course, will depend to a large degree
on the success of the new government, with the assistance of the AU forces in
defeating the Al-Shabaab militias, and establishing an acceptable level of governance.
If successful, a peaceful Somalia could have the opportunity, based on the
shared water resources of the Dawa-Gennale-Juba, and Shabelle river basins, to
rebuild its long neglected agricultural and livestock economies.
In
the context of IGAD and regional economic integration, a peaceful Somalia,
would also be well-positioned to benefit from Ethiopian use of its port
facilities, as Ethiopia begins to tap the agricultural and livestock
development potential of its Ogaden region. The closest ports to the
southeastern Ogaden are those of Mogadishu and Kismayo. This would open the way
to a new and more constructive, cooperative and peaceful relationship between
the two countries.
This
is particularly important in view of the rapid increase in population numbers
across much of the area, and the increasing pressure of fast-growing
populations on diminishing resources. The more effective and cooperative use of
the region’s water resources, could make important contributions to economic
development, to the reduction of poverty, periodic food insecurity, hunger and
conflict risk.
The
potential for irrigated agriculture and livestock-raising could serve as a
lifebelt for both farming and pastoral populations dependent on erratic
rainfall, in the context of periodic drought and food shortages, and increasing
poverty. It would open the way to sustainable rural livelihoods, and to
increased opportunities for urban employment and trade, within Somalia, and
between Somalia and its neighbours.
In
the context of regional economic integration, this would reduce resource
competition and accelerate development and livelihood opportunities. It would
also reduce conflict risk by providing the populations on both sides of the
border with resources and opportunities that they could not afford to
jeopardize, or allow to be jeopardized, through conflict.
Seifulaziz
Milas  is a writer on the Horn of Africa and author of Sharing the Nile:
Egypt, Ethiopia and the Geo-Politics of Water.
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