Tropical storm Four is forecast to strike Somalia at about 06:00 GMT on 25 December

Tropical storm Four is forecast to strike Somalia at about 06:00 GMT on 25 December.Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Centersuggest that the point of landfall will be near6.9 N,49.7 E.Four is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 74 km/h (46 mph).Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.

This cyclone was moving westward at about 18 mph. Some slight strengthening is possible through Monday morning before weakening will occur. This strengthening could allow the system to become a moderate to perhaps strong tropical storm briefly.

Rainfall from this system will likely reach Somalia starting Monday afternoon and will continue through Tuesday. Rainfall amounts will generally average 2-4 inches (50-100 mm), with local amounts exceeding 6 inches (150 mm). 

For some areas, this would approach or even equal the normal annual rainfall.

Widespread strong winds are not expected to impact Somalia as the system is expected to weaken, perhaps even dissipate, prior to making landfall early Tuesday. Still, a few wind gusts of 30-40 mph (50-65 kph) may occur, especially at the coast.

The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property. Anyone in the region who is concerned for their personal safety or property should contact their official national weather agency or warning centre for advice.

A satellite image of Tropical Cyclone 4 in the Indian Ocean. This image comes courtesy of the US Navy.

This alert is provided by TropicalStorm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and University College London (UCL).