The Demise of al-Shabaab Leader: End of the Game?

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  By Abukar Sanei-CfPAR

  The U.S. airstrike operation that was carried out on the first day of September successfully targeted Ahmed Godane, the leader of al-Shabaab in Somalia. The result of this operation has been welcomed by Somali leaders and the activists in social media as a progress that is made toward the “eradication” of Somalia’s extremist group. The news of the demise of Godane came only on Friday, September 5 when the Pentagon’s press secretary, Rear Adm. John Kirby, confirmed the death in a brief written statement. In addition, President Barack Obama, speaking at the conclusion of a NATO summit in Newport, Wales, said the successful U.S. strike was an example of his administration’s determination to hit back at terrorists. Likewise, a press statement released by the White House stated that Godane’s removal is a major symbolic and operational loss to the largest al-Qaida affiliate in Africa and reflects years of painstaking work by our intelligence, military and law enforcement professionals. On the other hand, the Facebook Page of Villa Somalia stated that US forces conducted the airstrike with the full knowledge and agreement of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS). This, the statement continued, is an international battle against the scourge of terrorism and the government and the people of Somalia greatly value the support of our international allies whether it is direct intervention such as on this occasion or longer term capacity building through the training and equipping our reconstituting Somali security forces.

  Moreover, the Somali government thanked the US government and individuals in the Somali security forces that helped the operation. The fact that I need to underline here is that getting rid of the most senior leader of al-Shabaab is a welcoming development for Somalia and the region as well as the international community. However, the hard question is whether the demise of Ahmed Godane is an indication of the end of the game.

  The death of Godane will not be the end of the game for al-Shabaab in Somalia. Under the leadership of Godane, though weakened, al-Shabaab had been active waging their guerrilla urban warfare for the last three years since they were “ousted” from Mogadishu. They successfully attacked Villa Somalia twice; the Parliament and the UN compound in Mogadishu in addition to other suicide bombings and planed assassinations. This has been the case and will be the case, because al-Shabaab is a group that is based on ideology, not individuals. The group will continue targeting the young Somalis who are susceptible to the calls of extremism from inside and the diaspora. Those brainwashed young Somalis will keep carrying out the activities that the group has been using to dismantle the progress made so far for state-building and governance. If Godane is gone, another successor will come and continue the work. In fact, the group selected the successor of Godane on Saturday, September 06, 2014. As reported by AP, the successor’s name is Abu Ubeid Ahmed Omar. The question would be how the successor will be different from Godane’s ruthless leadership. The only difference that might be expected to happen is how the group is willing to lay down its arms, and negotiate for political participation. I am not expecting this will be carried out by the newly selected senior leadershipof the group, but the junior level leaders can take this route. Col. Hassan Dahir Aweys, the former leader of Hizb al Islam, has defected from the group after clashes with Godane on the way the group operates. It is an open question whether Col. Aweys, who is now under the “custody” of the Somali government, totally rejects the use of violence to gain power. Moreover, Mohamed Said (Atom), who used to fight in the Galagala area in northeast Somalia, has recently surrendered himself to the Somali government.

  Alternative Actions

  There are four main alternative actions that need to take place. First, as al-Shabaab is driven by an ideology found from misinterpreted and twisted quotes of the Islamic teachings, it is the job of Somali religious scholars to prove the group wrong. The phenomenon of religious extremism and the culture of suicide are new to the Somali people. The religious scholars inside and the diaspora need to collaborate effectively to uprooting this new phenomenon, and to gain the hearts and the minds of the young Somalis who may have passion for their faith, but somehow manipulated by those with sinister agendas.

  The second alternative is to pinpoint where the financial and military support of the group come from. The financial and military support that the group receives is the only lifeline that helps them to continue their operation in Somalia and the region. The group is equipped with machine guns and ammunition, and the investigation that needs to be carried out is to clearly identify who are the suppliers. This is a mission that needs to be tackled by the Somali government, AMISOM forces and the international community. As long as the group is funded financially and supported militarily, they will continue their operation in and outside of Somalia.

  The third alternative action that needs to take place is creating opportunities for the young Somalis who are trapped by the misguided interpretation of Islam. Whether it is the piracy [though it has greatly diminished] off the coast of Somalia or the extremism, the young Somalis who engage these activities have failed to see any other alternatives for their future. For the last two decades, the young generation who was born in 1990s has only seen violence whether it is by the warlords or religious extremists. The private education systems that started after the fall of the last government in 1991, though they filled the vacuum, were only for those who could have afforded to pay the fees. As a result, many families who remained inside the country could not afford to send their children to school. Therefore, four options were left for the children of those families: one, fight for the warlords; two, join the pirates; three, be recruited by the extremists; and four, be a victim for smugglers and die in the deep ocean or survive to end up somewhere else as a refugee. In order to confront extremism, the young Somalis must be given free education and other life skills so that they can see a bright future for themselves.

  The fourth alternative action is that combating against al-Shabaab and the overall security of Somalia must be owned by Somalis. Using unmanned vehicles from time to time will not completely solve the threat of al-Shabaab to Somalia and the horn of African region. The Somali security forces must be nationalized, and equipped with necessary knowledge of security and the power machines that they need to employ for the war against al-Shabaab.

  The demise of al-Shabaab leader will greatly diminish the spirit of the group, but it doesn’t mean the ideology that thrusts the group will vanish easily. The Somali religious scholars need to double their efforts against extremism, and opportunities for education and employment must be created for the young exploited Somalis.

Somalia FSomalia Facing Famine Despite U.S. Role and Oil Wealthacing Famine Despite U.S. Role and Oil Wealth

Failure to reach political settlement hinders development and relief

 

By Abayomi Azikiwe

Global Research, September 16, 2014

Pan African News Wire

 

Early in September United States President Barack Obama announced that he had carried out a targeted assassination killing the leader of the Al-Shabaab Islamic resistance organization in Somalia which has been fighting against the Federal Government and a regional military force for over six years.

In a matter of days Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for retaliatory attacks against two convoys of African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) troops operating alongside high-ranking U.S. military intelligence personnel and representatives of a consultancy firm which advises the government in Mogadishu on counterinsurgency methods against Al-Shabaab. These attacks resulted in the deaths of at least twelve people including four from the U.S.

The attacks against AMISOM and the U.S. military personnel did not gain wide press coverage in the western corporate media. The Wall Street Journal carried a story indicating the strategic nature of the imperialist interventions in Somalia where oil and other interests are being exploited.

Amid the existence of the AMISOM forces numbering 22,000, which are funded, trained and coordinated by the Pentagon, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the European Union forces (EUFOR), another famine is looming inside this nation. Leading humanitarian agencies concerned with food security have reported over the last several months that millions of people in Somalia are threatened with starvation.

Other than providing additional weaponry, military training and diplomatic support for the fractured federal government in Mogadishu, the U.S. State Department has no plans aimed at reaching any degree of a political settlement inside the country. AMISOM troops have been operating in Somalia since 2007 and today soldiers are deployed from Uganda, Burundi, Sierra Leone, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya and other states.

Tensions and disputes have developed surrounding the large-scale western-funded occupation of Somalia by the AMISOM forces. In the southern region of the country, forces outside of Al-Shabaab have complained about the dominance of Kenya through its Defense Forces in the internal politics in the area.

Allegations of abuse of women by AMISOM troops have been reported. Although the so-called peacekeeping operation is endorsed by the United Nations, the key players in the occupation are Washington and its NATO allies.

Food Insecurity Reflects Failed U.S. Foreign Policy in East Africa

While providing introductory remarks for the Somalia Food Security Results survey, Phillipe Lazarrini, the United Nations humanitarian director for Somalia, stressed that “It is terrible to think that with almost 2.9 million people in need in Somalia, the aid appeal is only 30 per cent funded with $658 million still needed to end 2014.” (NTV Uganda, Sept. 11)

The Somalian country director for the World Food Program noted that food shortages in the country are expected to become more critical during the next few months principally due to insufficient rains, the burgeoning conflict between the government, AMISOM and Al-Shabaab prompting the rise in food prices. “We have scaled up to meet growing needs, but funding shortages meant the organization risked running short of vital supplies by September, leaving us with no alternative than to reduce food assistance to most vulnerable — IDPs and malnourished children,” Mr Bukera said. (NTV Uganda, Sept. 11)

In fact this problem is not confined to Somalia but is regional throughout the Horn of Africa which encompasses Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and sections of Sudan. Throughout the region of the entire East Africa, there is a strong U.S. military presence and several allied regimes which play an integral role in carrying out Washington’s foreign policy imperatives.

On Sept. 15 the regional dimensions of the crisis was highlighted during a joint press conference between representatives of the UN and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), an East African organization. Fighting has escalated in southern Somalia, South Sudan and unrest has taken place in Kenya as well since 2013.

In the combined statement delivered in Nairobi, UN Assistant Secretary- General for Humanitarian Affairs Kyung-Wha Kang, and Mahboub Maalim, Executive Secretary of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), stressed the need for urgent funding to assist 14 million people facing food insecurity in the region. “Displacement in Horn of Africa stands at an estimated 6.8 million people and 14 million people are food insecure, yet funding has remained at half of the appeal,” Kang said. (Xinhua, Sept. 15)

Somalia Oil and Other Resources Exploited by the West

All of the affected states throughout the Horn of Africa and the entire East Africa region contain oil, natural gas and other strategic resources. Without persistent conflict largely engineered by the U.S. and other imperialist states, the people in these territories would have adequate food and other resources to raise their standard of living.

With specific reference to Somalia, the exploration and drilling of oil is well underway in the breakaway region of Puntland in the North with one of the leading firms being Africa Oil Corp. based in Canada. Prospecting for oil is also taking place in another breakaway region of Somaliland.

Despite these economic projects, the peace and security of Somalia remains elusive. In Somaliland, the government has accused a Norway petroleum firm of deliberately destabilizing the country.

The Somaliland Petroleum ministry said that oil firms are signing multiple contracts and negotiating agreements with regional governments which are only “adding fire to conflicts.

These small companies are destabilizing the country and destroying the international community’s effort to build the peace and the security of the country,” the ministry added.

This same ministry singled out Norway’s DNO, charging the company with “planning to introduce armed militiamen in areas already in conflict and thereby stoking old feuds which resulted in internal displacement and harming the innocent and the most vulnerable people”. (Reuters, Sept. 3)

“We are warning those companies that the Somali government will lodge complaints with their respective countries and the United Nations Security Council,” the ministry added. Leading petroleum firms have claimed interests in Somalia oil resources even prior to the 1991-92 initial interventions by the UN and the U.S.

Somalian governmental officials in August met with representatives of Exxon-Mobil, Conoco, Phillips, Chevron, and BP for the first time since 1991. The federal government said it wanted these firms to propose a scheduled return to Somalia.

 

Counselor Thomas A. Shannon's Travel to Mogadishu, Somalia, on September 14

Media Note

Office of the Spokesperson

Washington, DC

September 15, 2014

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The Counselor of the Department, Thomas A. Shannon, visited Mogadishu on September 14. He was joined by Special Representative for Somalia James P. McAnulty and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor Steven J. Feldstein. In meetings with senior government officials and representatives of the international community, he reiterated the commitment of the United States to Somalia’s security and development. With President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud and Prime Minister Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed he discussed the latest military and political developments, including the successful strike against al-Shabaab leader Ahmed Abdi Godane and the military campaign by the Somali National Army (SNA) and African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) against al-Shabaab’s remaining strongholds. Additionally, the Counselor was briefed by representatives of the Somali cabinet and representatives of the international community on state-building initiatives, including judicial development, reconciliation in recently-liberated areas, and preparations for the 2015 review of the Constitution and the 2016 elections.

Scottish independence rattles China, Spain and others

The debate over Scottish independence has raised concerns in a number of countries where there are ongoing disputes over independence.

Some papers have discussed fears that a split from the union could spark an independence movement in small countries elsewhere. There have also concerns raised as to whether constitutional links amongst Commonwealth countries might be affected.

Chinese concerns

China, in particular is worried that the Scottish referendum might rekindle debates over Xinjiang, Tibet and Taiwan.

China has expressed surprise that London would even consider allowing the UK to break up. Furthermore its Premier Li Keqiang has said he wants to see the United Kingdom remain "united", adding that he believed the UK could "stay at the forefront in leading the world's growth and development".

His reply should not have come as a surprise. It reflects Beijing's worry about any independence movement, even one half way round the world.

Whilst the Scots are being offered a vote to determine their future, in China any talk of separation is regarded as treason and could result in a lengthy jail sentence.

Beijing has launched a huge security crackdown against what it calls Uighur separatists in the western region of Xinjiang. And in Tibet tensions still exist more than 50 years after China 'liberated' the territory and imposed Chinese rule.

Meanwhile the island of Taiwan has been threatened with invasion should they declare formal independence [BBC / BBC].

Chinese media response

Whilst China's state run news agency has been unable to avoid reporting the news surrounding Scottish independence, official responses have been somewhat muted.

When asked whether China would veto any application to the UN following independence, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson responded by saying that Scotland's independence referendum was "an internal matter of the UK."

"China has no comment on that," the spokesperson added [Xinhua]. While China claims not to have an opinion, its reporting has been very much biased towards the 'No' campaign. Articles in the last few days all point to the negative effects that independence would bring.

Oil tycoons voice opposition against Scottish independence, Salmond tries to disperse concern over financial consequences from "Yes" vote, Scottish vote for independence would change political map of remaining UK: expert, and Latest poll shows "No" backers exceed "Yes" over Scotland's independencewere just some of the headlines, an indication that China's view was very much that of PM David Cameron that the UK would be better off working together.

Some media has gone further though, suggesting that the remaining union would become a third-rate nation should Scotland depart. The Beijing News roundly mocked the idea of a divided Britain, saying that the country would lose its status as a "world centre of politics, economics and culture".

The Global Times and the People's Daily, both Chinese state run newspapers, also suggested that the UK would fall from "a first-class country to a second-class one" and that David Cameron would "become a 'sinner' of history for the UK".

Chinese language newspapers and websites were even more vocal. The China Daily, Xinhua and the Global Times all talked of the risks of separatism and said China could not "afford to play this British game"

Meanwhile China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, deputy director Wang Shuo said Scottish independence would "establish a bad precedent" whilst the Global Times said "any step towards separatism can provoke a chain reaction" [Telegraph].

Spanish worries

It's not just China who is worried about the Scottish referendum. The independence debate has sparked discussions in Spain where Catalonia has sought independence for many years.

Some 1.8 million separatists in northeastern Spain have staged mass protests across Catalonia to demand a secession vote deemed illegal by Spanish government. "The UK is willing to let Scotland vote and Catalonia is refused that right by the Spanish," says Liz Castro, an author and publisher who divides her time between Massachusetts and Barcelona. "Catalans look to the Scotland-UK question with a sense of envy and admiration."

Despite the protests, a 'Yes' vote in Scotland won't change anything since the Spanish Government will maintain that the Constitution prohibits any consultation or referendum in an autonomous community [Telegraph / Guardian / US Today]

Other separatist movements

Europe has dozens of separatist movements and it is possible that some could stir should the Scottish referendum swing towards independence. In the far west of England there exists a strong nationalistic movement seeking the devolution of Cornwall from the rest of the UK.

Across the rest of Asia as well as China, separatist may become more emboldened. There are dozens of regions disputed by separatists, nationalists and state bodies. The same is true in Africa, North andSouth America and other parts of the world.

In some countries, such as China, independence campaigners will simply be beaten back. In others they will simply be ignored. But Scottish devolution has already ignited the touchpaper and it will be hard to extinguish the flame.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

US teen mistaken for ‘White Widow’

Samantha Lewthwaite, the so-called "White Widow", used the name "Natalie Faye Webb" on a fake South African passport.

Nairobi - An American family has been offered an all-expenses-paid trip to Kenya after their vacation was ruined by a policeman who mistook their 15-year-old daughter for an international terrorist.

A statement from the Kenyan government said the teenage holidaymaker was “harassed by police in Mlolongo”, outside the capital Nairobi, “on accusations of looking like” British fugitive Samantha Lewthwaite.

It said Kenya's interior minister, Joseph Ole Lenku, had announced that “the government will sponsor a fully-paid holiday for the family” as compensation and that police were also investigating the incident.

Lewthwaite, known as the “White Widow”, was married to Germaine Lindsay, one of four Islamist suicide bombers who attacked the London transport network on July 7, 2005, killing 52 people.

The 30-year-old Muslim convert has been linked to Somalia's al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Shabaab rebels, who have launched a string of attacks in Kenya, including the assault on Nairobi's Westgate shopping mall that claimed at least 67 lives a year ago.

She is wanted in Kenya on charges of being in possession of explosives and conspiracy to commit a felonydating back to December 2011, and is the subject of an Interpol “red notice” warrant for her detention issued at Kenya's request.

There has been no confirmed sighting since she gave Kenyan police the slip in Mombasa in 2011, reportedly using her false South African passport, and last month Kenyan detectives hunting her said the trail had gone cold. - AFP

Al Shabab's Last Stand?

Last week’s deadly U.S. strike on Ahmed Abdi Godane, the leader of the Somalia-based Islamist militant group al Shabab, could be the group’s undoing. Although the organization was quick to name a successor, Godane’s death has thrown it into disarray, casting serious doubts on its future. Although that augurs well for Somalia, the region is not out of the woods. Al Shabab’s extremist ideology has already taken root across East Africa. Without further action against al Shabab and groups like it, militant Islam will only spread further.  

LEADERLESS JIHAD

For years, al Shabab was guided by a small council of leaders who formed the group’s strategy and appointed its emir. That started to change with Godane, also known as Abu Zubayr, who was chosen as the top leader in 2008. He ruled the militant group like a dictator, marginalizing the council, crushing internal dissent, and even killing rivals.

In the process of consolidating power, Godane created the Amniyat, a trusted group of hardcore loyalists whose tasks varied from assassinating dissenters to directing high-profile attacks on Somali government installations, allied troops, and foreign targets. He made particular use of this much-feared force during abitter struggle with other top al Shabab leaders, which played out on social media in 2012 and 2013. Amniyat forces conducted a series of mafia-style executions of nearly all of Godane’s critics, including Ibrahim al-Afghani, the co-founder of al Shabab, a man who would have been an ideal successor. Eventually, Godane’s growing authoritarianism embittered nearly all the other senior leaders -- or, at least the ones who were still alive. And by fall of last year, Godane was alone at the top with no potential deputy or successor in sight.

With the head of this autocracy now dead, and other senior leaders either marginalized, arrested, in hiding, or executed, the chances that al Shabab will live on as a cohesive force are marginal at best.

With the head of this autocracy now dead, and other senior leaders either marginalized, arrested, in hiding, or executed, the chances that al Shabab will live on as a cohesive force are marginal at best. The chosen successor, Ahmed Umar, also known as Abu Ubaidah, is essentially unknown and is unlikely to possess the charisma, strategic intelligence, or rhetorical ability needed to bind the fractious group. The deceased leader possessed all these qualities and was adulated by many. His frequent audio and written messages, which made use of poetry and inspirational religious verses, went a long way toward keeping all al Shabab members, with their varying backgrounds and outlooks on jihad, in line and fighting together.

These are dark days for al Shabab on another front as well. Still recovering from major territorial losses in Somalia over the past two years, al Shabab now faces Operation Indian Ocean, a new ground offensive of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). The offensive aims to deprive the militant group of its main financing streams, in particular the illicit coal trade, and access to key ports. Although previous AMISOM offensives have proven lackluster, Operation Indian Ocean has a qualitatively different feel, with more advanced planning and tighter coordination with the United States and others. In only a few weeks since the operation began, AMISOM has already pushed al Shabab back on a number of fronts.

Understanding, perhaps, that al Shabab is on the ropes, the day after the missile strike killed Godane, Mogadishu declared a 45-day amnesty for al Shabab members willing to surrender. It has made a number of similar offers in the past, with mixed results. But with continuing losses on the battlefield, a new AMISON offensive, shrinking finances, and now the death of their charismatic leader, the calculations among the rank-and-file are likely to rapidly change. Although some might surrender, many others will melt into the population undetected.

Of course, desperation can lead to more violence: In the past few months, al Shabab has staged a number of spectacular attacks, including suicide commando raids on Somalia’s parliament, presidential palace, and intelligence ministry. With Godane dead, Ahmed Umar will undoubtedly look to prove the skeptics wrong and unleash a series of attacks against the government in Mogadishu. But at this point, the real question is how long he and his remaining loyalists will be able to sustain the onslaught before their group meets its ultimate fate.

EXTREME PROBLEMS

Al Shabab’s demise would be a good thing, of course, but it would not necessarily spell the end of terrorism in the region. Al Shabab’s extremist ideology has been steadily gaining ground in surrounding countries, and little has been done to address the problem. Facing a lack of opportunity, corrupt governments, and religious and ethnic marginalization, susceptible East Africans have had few reasons not to adopt extremist views.

The problem is nowhere more apparent than in Somalia’s neighbor Kenya. For years, al Shabab has been working to create a permanent foothold there, and thus far, the government has proved its own worst enemy in attempting to reverse this trend. Security forces’ blatant targeting of Muslims and brutal tactics have created inroads for extremism in communities that feel abused and fearful of their government. As a result, hundreds, if not thousands, of Kenyans have been recruited by al Shabaab over the years. Al Shabab’s continued attacks in the country have also successfully pitted Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta against his rival Raila Odinga in a game of political brinkmanship that could plunge Kenya into ethnic conflict -- exactly the kind of toxic environment in which a group like al Shabab can thrive.                                                                                                  

Extremist groups have also been making steady advances in Tanzania. Islamists have seized on the simmering issue of Zanzibar’s independence and successfully hardened perceptions that Muslims are a beleaguered minority on the mainland. Bombings and acid attacks are becoming more common events, and a few startling incidents, such as the discovery of an al Shabab training camp in Mtwara, suggest Tanzania may soon share Kenya’s troubles. The list does not end there: Al Shabab-related activity is also on the rise in Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Uganda.

Although Godane’s death has destabilized al Shabab and associated groups in the immediate future, in the long run, it may increase the extremist threat in East Africa. Without Godane’s direction, it would not be surprising if extremists across the region start looking elsewhere for inspiration and guidance. There is no extremist group with more power and allure at the moment than the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS, also known as the Islamic State). Its military successes in Iraq and Syria and its realization of a caliphate have created a compelling model of jihad for Sunnis around the world. Inspired by ISIS, East African jihadists could step up violence in the region, potentially trying to create a caliphate of their own, much like the Nigeria-based Boko Haram did last month.   

Regional leaders have finally (although belatedly) recognized the need to act. Intelligence chiefs from across the continent met in Nairobi on August 25 and declared that terrorism is the greatest threat facing Africa and can only be countered if politicians rid their countries of corruption, marginalization, poverty, and unemployment. At an East Africa police chiefs conference two days later,Kenyatta declared that terrorism could only be defeated if countries worked in unison. These meetings are encouraging, but follow-through is critical. For a guide, leaders should look to the three-fold approach in Somalia: eliminating leaders; depriving combatants of operational space and funds; and bringing disaffected individuals into the governmental fold.

Godane’s death provides a unique opportunity for allied forces to press the advantage against al Shabab and potentially deliver a decisive blow. It gives East African governments a window of time to implement new policies to address the core reasons behind radicalization. And that is what they must do. If not, al Shabab may die but militant Islam will live on.