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Thursday, September 26, 2013

Somalia Pirate Risk Alive After Deadly Kenya Mall Siege: Freight

 
Attacks began to increase in 2005, with high-profile raids including one on A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S’s MV Maersk Alabama, the first U.S.-flagged cargo ship hijacked in 200 years, according to publicity for a film on the incident starring Tom Hanks on general release next month. Photographer: Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images
The deadly assault this week in Nairobi by a militant group from Somalia serves as a reminder of the threats emanating from the war-torn East African country that remains a hotbed for pirate attacks on key shipping routes.

The four-day battle in Kenya’s Westgate shopping mall with the Somalia-based Islamist group Al-Shabaab left at least 67 civilians and security personnel dead before Kenyan forces ended the siege. While Somali piracy has also been curbed by military intervention and enhanced ship defenses, there’s no evidence that the supply of would-be raiders has waned in a state ranked the world’s second-poorest by Central Intelligence Agency.

“We’re in a dangerous phase,” said Philip Holihead, head of anti-piracy measures at the International Maritime Organization. “When there are no attacks people get complacent because it costs money to secure the ships. But take away any one part and you hand the power back to pirates.”

Attacks off the Horn of Africa in seas vital to ships using the Suez Canal and Cape of Good Hope peaked in 2011 before falling 70 percent last year to 62, including 20 successful hijackings, Oceans Beyond Piracy said in its latest annual report. The decline, which has continued this year with only two Somali hijackings, is the result of $3 billion in annual spending on shipboard security and navy patrols, a commitment that’s in doubt amid pressure on company and state budgets.

Shortest Route
About 20 percent of world trade goes through the Gulf of Aden between Yemen and Somalia bound to and from Suez, the shortest route between the Atlantic and Indian oceans.

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud said this month at the Countering Maritime Piracy congress in Dubai that the causes of piracy have yet to be removed, with poverty and instability continuing to breed extremism. Speaking prior to the Nairobi attack, he said investment equal to just a fraction of the cost of piracy would help make a major difference.

Attacks began to increase in 2005, with high-profile raids including one on A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S (MAERSKB)’s MV Maersk Alabama, the first U.S.-flagged cargo ship hijacked in 200 years, according to publicity for a film on the incident starring Tom Hanks on general release next month. The actor plays a captain freed after his captors were shot by Navy SEAL marksmen.

Successful hijackings peaked in 2010, with 44 ransoms paid, totaling $238 million, according to Colorado-based OBP. The international community responded with a show of naval power so effective that patrols are now able to intercept pirates and destroy their equipment “almost at the beach,” according to Jan Fritz Hansen, who chairs the piracy task force at the European Community Shipowners’ Association.

Barbed Wire
At the same time, shipping lines have adopted measures that include faster speeds to prevent boarding and the deployment of barbed wire, water hoses, lights and lookouts to protect their vessels and nets that entangle the propellers of pursuing boats.

“We have fought very hard and the situation is currently under control at sea,” said Hansen. “But on land there are still poor people and criminals that are tempted by what they see as golden opportunities sailing by.”

The prosecution of captured pirates has benefited from international funding, with European Union aid helping to fund an overhaul of Somalia’s judicial system and prisons.

The net effect has been to impair the ability of pirates to seize oil, bulk and container craft, reducing them to attacks on ships such as fishing boats, where rewards are lower, said Cyrus Mody, assistant director at the International Maritime Bureau, the International Chamber of Commerce’s marine crimes division.

Smaller Decline
The cost of dealing with Somali piracy was about $6 billion in 2012, including $1.1 billion for military operations such as reconnaissance planes and drones, detachments to guard ships and the administrative budgets of naval operations. The cost of private security measures rose to $2.1 billion as more shipping lines deployed armed personnel.

The price of faster steaming was $1.5 billion, even with reduced observance of guidelines, while re-routing cost almost $300 million, danger money paid to seafarers about $500 million and insurance $550 million, OBP calculates. Ransom payments fell 80 percent to $31.75 million, with the mean amount handed over about $4 million and hostages held for an average 316 days.

While the cost of Somali piracy declined 13 percent overall versus 2011, that was a far smaller decline than in the number of attacks, with the cost per incident jumping almost threefold to $83 million, prompting OBP to suggest short-term solutions may no longer be economically efficient

Atlantic Distraction
With European nations in particular imposing tough austerity measures to bring down deficits, declining defense spending will inevitably hurt the anti-piracy patrols, said Andrew Linington, spokesman for the Nautilus International trade union which represents about 23,000 maritime workers.

While naval operations have been effective, there’s also concern that attacks may pick up with the close of the monsoon season at the end of this month, when conditions will be better for pirates to take to the water, Linington said by telephone.

“Somalia still has intense problems,” he said. “It’s fragile. The problems certainly have potential to reappear.”

Simon Bennett, a director at the International Chamber of Shipping trade body, which represents companies controlling more than 80 percent of the world’s merchant tonnage, said a shift of attention to a growing pirate threat in the Gulf of Guinea off West Africa risks diverting resources from the Indian Ocean.

“All of the resources to fuel a resurgence of piracy off Somalia remain in place,” Bennett said by e-mail, adding that the group is lobbying politicians to retain military safeguards and aid efforts ashore while encouraging shipping lines to keep security measures in place despite the decline in attacks.

Clan Chiefs
Adjoa Anyimadu, an Africa specialist at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London, said that funding mechanisms which support piracy and process its gains also remain intact.

“People who finance, people who process the ransom and so on, all these structures are still in place” she said.

Still, Emma Gordon, East Africa analyst at IHS Country Risk, said a federalization program underway in Somalia has had more of an impact on piracy than commonly understood, with clan leaders in the key province of Galmudug successfully coopted.

“What we’ve seen is that the leaders of the pirates are more interested in becoming leaders of these federal states,” Gordon said, with this process gradually removing vital funding for attacks and safe havens in which to hold captured craft.

Mohamad Osman, executive director of the Somaliland Counter Piracy Coordination Office, isn’t so sure.

“As long as there are Somali males with access to arms and the existence of unemployment there will always be the threat of piracy,” he said in an interview at the Dubai conference.

------

To contact the reporters on this story: Deena Kamel Yousef in Dubai at dhussein1@bloomberg.net; Eduard Gismatullin in London at egismatullin@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Benedikt Kammel at bkammel@bloomberg.net; Will Kennedy at wkennedy3@bloomberg.net
 Source: Bloomberg

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

The Kenyan Massacre’s Roots in America’s Somalia Policy


Written by 
 
Last weekend’s hostage-taking — and the murder of at least 62 people — at the Westgate Shopping Mall in Nairobi, Kenya, has its roots in the U.S. government’s intervention in Somalia, which began in the 1990s. Although there is no justification for killing innocents, it is fair to point out that al-Shabaab, the Islamist group that committed the attack on the mall and that controls parts of Somalia, would probably not be in power if not for the United States.

As Scott Horton, host of a nationwide radio program focusing on foreign policy, points out in the September issue of Future of Freedom (which I edit), the U.S. government has intervened directly in Somalia and backed repeated invasions by neighboring African states, including Kenya. In the process, a relatively moderate government was overthrown, resistance to invaders was radicalized, and the al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab gained partial control, which would have been unlikely without that intervention.

Horton, drawing on firsthand reporting by journalist Jeremy Scahill, notes that after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, the Bush administration compiled a list of countries “ripe for ‘regime change,’” including Somalia, “none of which had any involvement whatsoever in the attacks or any real ties to those who did.... Luckily for the Pentagon and CIA, it was not very difficult to find cutthroat warlords willing to accept their cash to carry out targeted assassinations and kidnappings against those they accused of being Islamists — or anyone else they felt like targeting.”

A backlash followed. Somalia’s Islamic Courts Union, a coalition of a dozen groups, put down the warlords and the U.S.-sponsored Transitional Federal Government. “The ICU then declared the reign of Islamic law,” Horton writes. “That, of course, was none of America’s business, and even if it had been, the Somali regime lacked the power to create an authoritarian religious state like, say, U.S. ally Saudi Arabia.... And Somalia’s traditional Muslim beliefs were much more laid-back and tolerant than those in Arabia.”

This was unacceptable to the Bush administration, so in late 2006 it had Ethiopia, its Christian client state and an old Somalia antagonist, invade and overthrow the ICU, “with CIA and special-operations officers leading the attack.” In 2008, however, Somalis kicked the Ethiopians out. Helping in the effort was, in Horton’s words, “the youngest and least influential group in the ICU, al-Shabaab (‘the youth’).” On its way out of power the Bush administration, seeking to save face, got the “old men of the ICU” to agree to “accept the form of the Transitional Federal Government.” This only inflamed al-Shabaab, which accused them of being American agents.

“It was only then — years after the whole mess began — that it declared loyalty to Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda. It started acting like al-Qaeda too, implementing Arabian-style laws and punishments in the areas they dominated, such as cutting off the hands of those accused of stealing,” Horton writes.

Unfortunately, the Obama team has continued along the same disastrous path:
After the Ethiopians withdrew, [the administration] sent in the armies of Uganda and Burundi under the auspices of the African Union to hunt down and destroy al-Shabaab. Then came the Kenyans, who apparently panicked after luxury resorts near their border had come under attack. In 2011 the Ethiopians reinvaded. Kenyan forces took the port city of Kismayo from al-Shabaab in 2012 and loudly declared victory when the rebels melted away. But the stubborn insurgency continues the fight.
The Americans, for their part, continue to back the invading forces, as well as what passes for the “government” in Mogadishu, with hundreds of tons of weapons and tens of millions of dollars.
The CIA and the U.S. military still take a direct hand, not only by helping the nominal government, but also by attacking Somalis with helicopters, cruise missiles, and drones — and, Horton writes, “by overseeing at least two different torture dungeons.”

The horrendous attack in Nairobi has the news media abuzz over possible terrorist threats to “soft targets” such as shopping malls, not only in Africa but also in the United States itself. As we think about this, we should realize that this is a threat made in Washington, DC.

How many times do we have to experience what the CIA calls “blowback” before the American people cry, “Enough!”

Sheldon Richman  is vice president and editor at The Future of Freedom Foundation in Fairfax, Va. (www.fff.org).

Somalia's Islamist supremo: Ahmed Abdi Godane


Godane is also wanted for the 2003 murder of British couple Richard and Enid Eyeington, who were shot dead at the school they taught at in Somaliland.
An AU-UN IST picture shows a Somali policeman directing traffic at a checkpoint in downtown Mogadishu, May 3, 2013. (AU UN IST PHOTO/AFP/Archives)

By Jean Marc MOJON            

Nairobi (AFP) –  Ahmed Abdi Godane, whose Shebab group has said it carried out a deadly raid on a Nairobi mall, has transformed chronically-unstable Somalia into one of Al-Qaeda's main global hubs.

Reportedly trained in Afghanistan with the Taliban, Godane -- often known by the name Abu Zubayr -- took over the leadership of the Shebab in 2008 after then leader Adan Hashi Ayro was killed by a US missile attack.

Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri has recognised Godane as the head of the "mujahedeen" in East Africa, although letters released after Osama bin Laden's death show the late Saudi Islamist leader had lower regard for the Somali's abilities.

The camera-shy extremist, a slightly built man who is known to enjoy writing poetry and is said to have once worked as an accountant for an airline company, espouses the language of global jihad.

Godane claimed responsibility for July 2010 bombings in the Ugandan capital Kampala that killed 74 people.

On Saturday Islamist gunmen stormed an upscale shopping centre in Nairobi and took hostages in a four-day siege that left at least 67 dead. The Shebab claimed on its Twitter account that 137 hostages were killed.

It remained unclear however exactly who carried out the attack.

With the Kenyan authorities yet to release information on the composition of the group, there was contradictory information on the possible involvement of foreign jihadists and members of the Somali diaspora and even a breakaway Shebab group.

In 2010, Godane was rumoured to have been pushed out of this post as top leader, but the UN Monitoring Group on Somalia said he has managed to hang on by developing the Shebab's internal secret service.

The panel's latest report in July said the Shebab's Amniyat -- or secret service -- is "structured along the lines of a clandestine organisation within the organisation with the intention of surviving any kind of dissolution" of the group.

However the same report noted that Godane had faced discontent from several of his top commanders, notably over his open threats to Omar Hammami -- the Alabama-bred public face of the Shebab who was killed by fellow fighters earlier this month -- and for unjustly detaining newcoming foreign fighters.

"Shebab is not divided into several factions but is one body ruled by Ahmed Godane," one of his aides told AFP Wednesday, in a bid to dispel rumours that Shebab had splintered.

Rather than leading troops in the field Godane instead often communicates through audio recordings, a leadership style that garners little respect from those Somali fighters who want a leader to fight on the battlefield.

Instead Godane, educated at an Islamic school in Pakistan, enjoys reading, listening to and reciting Somali poetry, especially those verses that chronicle resistance to British and Italian colonial rule.

The soft-spoken militant -- wanted in his homeland Somaliland for murder and an attempted bombing attack -- lists the 19 century anti-British colonial fighter Sayid Mohamed Abdulle Hassan, the "Mad Mullah", as a role model.

Like the "Mad Mullah", Godane hails from the northern breakaway region of Somaliland, seen as a rare area of stability in the anarchic and war-torn Horn of Africa nation of Somalia.

He once ran a small supermarket in the Somaliland's capital Hargeisa with his long-time friend and key architect of the Shebab, Ibrahim Haji Jama Me'ad, also known as Ibrahim Afghani, due to his training in Afghanistan.

Seen as an important driver of the recruitment of new members and close to foreign fighters within the Shebab, he is also believed responsible for a 2008 purge of commanders deemed ideologically too soft.

The US State Department lists Godane as one of the world's eight top terror fugitives.

He is included in a third category of men on whom information warrants a $7-million reward, alongside Nigeria's Boko Haram leader, but under the Taliban's Mullah Omar, for whom a tip is worth up to $10 million, and Zawahiri, who fetches $25 million.

Godane is also wanted for the 2003 murder of British couple Richard and Enid Eyeington, who were shot dead at the school they taught at in Somaliland.

Now White Widow is connected to British-born Al Qaeda bomb maker: Fugitive wife of 7/7 terrorist was key link between Pakistan and East African extremists

  • Mother-of-four from Buckinghamshire converted to Islam at 17-years-old
  • Married to London bomber Germaine Lindsay before disappearing in 2007
  • Believed to be working for experienced Al Qaeda bomb maker Habib Ghani
  • She has built up web of contacts between Somalia, Pakistan, UK and Africa
British-born Samantha Lewthwaite
By Rebecca Evans and Duncan Gardham

The fugitive ‘white widow’ of a 7/7 London bomber was a key link between Al Qaeda terrorists in Pakistan and their fighters in East Africa, it has emerged.

Muslim convert Samantha Lewthwaite, who was married to Kings Cross bomber Germaine Lindsay, spent two years working for the deadly extremist organisation in South Africa using a false name.

Investigators in Britain and Kenya have now established that the Home Counties mother-of-four has been working with a key British-born bomb maker who had trained with Al Qaeda in Pakistan.

Lewthwaite’s role was to channel money raised in the UK and elsewhere to terror cells in Somalia.

A security source said: ‘We are now clearer about the role Lewthwaite has been playing for Al Qaeda and her links with this bomb maker.

‘She seems to have spent two years building up a network that spans the UK, South Africa, Pakistan and Somalia.’

Caught: British-born Jermaine Grant, 30, in cuffs and flanked by guards as he is held on terror charges in Mombasa, Kenya

Lewthwaite, 29, a soldier’s daughter from Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire, has been on the run in East Africa after police foiled a Christmas bomb plot against Western tourist targets in the Indian Ocean coastal resort of Mombasa in 2011.

Police now believe she has been working with experienced Al Qaeda bomb maker Habib Ghani. 

Sources said Ghani, from Hounslow, West London, gained bomb-making experience in Pakistan. He is understood to have a Pakistani father and a Kenyan mother and left Britain several years ago.

Lewthwaite fled with her young children and was initially thought to have crossed the border into lawless Somalia where she was being sheltered by Al Qaeda affiliate Al Shabaab. However, there have been recent reports she may have returned to Mombasa.

A Kenyan police source said: ‘We believe she is back in Mombasa but because she wears a full Muslim veil, she is difficult to spot. We have identified her as a blue-eyed woman in a hijab and believe she is active on Twitter and still working as a fundraiser for Al Shabaab.’

In December 2011, she was arrested and let go in mysterious circumstances after Kenyan police picked up her British accomplice Jermaine Grant close to a make-shift bomb factory.

Grant, 30, from Brixton, south London, and Lewthwaite were both charged with possessing bomb-making materials and of planning to cause loss of ‘innocent civilian lives’.

He will briefly appear in court on Mombasa on Wednesday. Last month, Scotland Yard anti-terror officers were due to fly to Kenya to give evidence in Grant’s trial. 

But police received a tip-off that Lewthwaite and other Al Shabaab terrorists were planning to attack the court and free him, so his trial will now take place in a high-security court inside a prison.

Hiding: The Serena Beach Resort in Mombasa where Samantha Lewthwaite is believed to have previously rented an apartment
Lewthwaite, who also uses the Muslim name Sherafiyah, converted to Islam at the age of 17 and married Lindsay in 2002 after meeting him on the internet.

She was seven months’ pregnant when Lindsay, a Jamaican convert from Huddersfield, West Yorkshire, killed 26 people when he blew himself up on a Piccadilly Line train in July 2005. 

British security services have so far failed to explain how she slipped off the radar, travelled to East Africa on a stolen passport, and became, as police believe, an integral member of Al Shabaab. Since her disappearance, Lewthwaite has been linked to a spate of grenade attacks in Mombasa, including one on a packed pub last year which killed three people, including a nine-year-old boy.

There are also reports she is using Twitter to bolster support for an all-female suicide squad in East Africa.

Bombers: Germaine Lindsay, Samantha's ex-husband, pictured centre before he blew himself up on a Piccadilly Line train in July 2005

She is known as ‘dada mzungu’ – Swahili for white sister – and is described as serving ‘Allah as his female soldier’ and who ‘commands her all-female mujahid terror squad and conducts operations against the kuffar [non-Muslims]’.

Grant is also facing charges for trying to sneak into Somalia disguised as a Muslim woman in 2008.

What CNN said about British-born Samantha Lewthwaite
 
(CNN) -- British-born Samantha Lewthwaite was once seen as a kind of victim of the July 2005 London terror attacks -- the pregnant wife of one of the suicide bombers who killed 52 people, now left alone to care for her children.

She condemned the attacks but then vanished. Now, Kenyan authorities say, she is the infamous "White Widow," alleged to be a supporter and financier of people linked to the Somali terror group Al-Shabaab.

Reports that a white woman was among the terrorists who stormed Nairobi, Kenya's, upscale Westgate Shopping Mall on Saturday -- an operation for which Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility -- have prompted a slew of media speculation that she might have been involved.

But no official confirmation has been given. A senior Kenyan government official said a woman was among the attackers. Yet it is "impossible," based on the government's photo evidence (and before a forensics examination is complete), to determine who that might be.

Lewthwaite, born in Buckinghamshire, England, earned her nickname as the widow of Germaine Lindsay, one of the four suicide bombers who attacked London's transportation system on July 7, 2005.

Now age 29, Lewthwaite met Lindsay, a British Muslim, when she was 17, according to the Daily Mail. A convert to Islam, she married him in 2002.

After the London attacks, she denied having knowledge of the plans. Later, Kenyan authorities said, she emerged in the Kenyan port city of Mombasa and became part of a terror cell linked to Al-Shabaab.

In December 2011, Kenyan authorities raided three homes in Mombasa, including one allegedly used by Lewthwaite, and arrested some people on suspicion of planning to destroy a bridge, a ferry and hotels frequented by Western tourists.

At Lewthwaite's residence, investigators found the kind of bomb-making materials that were used in the London attacks, Kenyan counterterror police said. But Lewthwaite was not found.

A security guard who spoke to CNN on condition of anonymity in 2012 said he saw a white woman leave the residence hours before the raid. Authorities have yet to catch up to her.

Kenyan authorities also suspect Lewthwaite of hatching a plot to break fellow Briton Jermaine Grant out of jail after he was arrested in connection with the alleged Mombasa plot.

'An innocent young person'

But in the English town of Aylesbury, in Buckinghamshire, where Lewthwaite lived with Lindsay for a time, she is remembered by local councilor Raj Khan as a good, helpful woman.

"She was an innocent young person," said Khan, who said he knew Lewthwaite as a "family friend" before the July 2005 bombings.

"She would do anything to accommodate other people. She was a very good human being. She did everything to help others."

He warned against judging her based on rumors and speculation.

"I'm worried that the picture that has been demonizing her may be premature because it has not been substantiated," he said. "Unless there is hard evidence, we should not just unnecessarily jump to conclusions."

Lewthwaite also reportedly spent time in Banbridge, in Northern Ireland, where her grandmother, Elizabeth Allen, still lives.

Nairobi attack: Foreign experts join Kenya forensic hunt



Relatives have been identifying the bodies of those killed in the attack
Kenya's investigation into a bloody siege by Islamist militants in Nairobi has been joined by experts from the US, UK, Germany, Canada and Interpol.
Forensic experts are combing the Westgate shopping complex for DNA and ballistic clues, Interior Minister Joseph Ole Lenku said.
He confirmed that five militants were dead and said the bodies of more were expected to be found.
Funerals are continuing to be held for the 67 civilian and military victims.
New footage from inside Westgate shows a family being rescued
"We have moved to the next phase," Mr Lenku told a news briefing in Nairobi, saying that he expected the forensic audit to take at least seven days.
He said he did not expect the death toll to rise significantly.
Several bodies are thought to be trapped under rubble after three floors of the building collapsed. Mr Lenku said he only expected bodies of militants to be found.
Work is continuing to establish their identities, including whether one was a woman, he added. saying: "We want to again request you to allow the forensic experts to determine whether that is true."
Alyaz Merali, wounded in the attack, took part in a funeral procession for his mother, who was killed
Mr Lenku said he was unable to confirm whether there were any Britons or Americans involved, but said that 10 people were being held in connection with the attack.
Counter-claims
Flags flew at half-mast across Kenya on Wednesday, as three days of national mourning began.
Somali Islamist group al-Shabab said it had carried out the attack in retaliation for Kenyan army operations in Somalia.
The militants stormed the Westgate centre on Saturday, throwing grenades and firing indiscriminately at shoppers and staff.
Twitter posts on an al-Shabab account said the group's militants had held 137 people hostage, and claimed the hostages had died after security forces fired chemical agents to end the siege.
Nuns prayed near the Westgate shopping centre on Wednesday morning
The posts could not be verified. A government spokesman denied any chemical agents were used, and authorities called on Kenyans to ignore militant propaganda.
Both sides blamed the other for causing part of the shopping centre to collapse.
Al-Shabab, which is linked to al-Qaeda, has repeatedly threatened attacks on Kenyan soil if Nairobi did not pull its troops out of Somalia.
"I never realised how loud a gun was and how scary" Zachary Yach, survivor
There are about 4,000 Kenyan troops in the south of Somalia as part of an African Union force supporting Somali government forces.
Al-Shabab is fighting to create an Islamic state in Somalia.

Analysis

Throughout the crisis the Red Cross was registering people as missing as friends and relatives gave details - is it possible that some of those on the list were later found or sadly died and were not removed?
The Red Cross had mentioned at least 50, possibly more than 60, people unaccounted for. Interior Minister Joseph Ole Lenku said there could still be bodies under the rubble but described the number as "insignificant", and suggested they were more likely to be of the gunmen themselves.
Nothing really was said today that President Uhuru Kenyatta hadn't said almost 24 hours ago. By saying it will take at least seven days until the forensic results are out - it was partly a way of telling the world: "Sorry we're not going to tell you any more for a while."

Bilal al-Berjawi and the Shifting Fortunes of Foreign Fighters in Somalia - In depth Analysis


Author: Raffaello Pantucci

On September 21, 2013, al-Shabab militants attacked an upscale shopping mall in Nairobi, the Kenyan capital. The brazen operation comes in the aftermath of al-Shabab leader Ahmed “Mukhtar Abu al-Zubayr” Godane’s consolidation of power. In June, Godane swept aside a raft of senior leaders in the group. His power grab marked a watershed event in a period of dramatic turmoil for al-Shabab.

One individual, Bilal al-Berjawi, whose death may have come as part of an early expression of this schism, returned to public attention when al-Shabab published a number of videos and materials celebrating him in early 2013. A British citizen who was drawn to Somalia before al-Shabab formally existed, he rose through the ranks of al-Shabab and the foreign fighter cell linked to al-Qa`ida to become a figure who was reportedly second only to the head of al-Qa`ida’s East Africa operations, Fazul Abdullah Mohammad (also known as Fadil Harun). Al-Berjawi’s death in January 2012 reportedly triggered tensions within al-Shabab, culminating in Godane’s takeover earlier this year. Yet al-Shabab emphasized that al-Berjawi’s death was the product of Western intelligence efforts, rather than an internal purge.[1]

The accuracy of al-Shabab’s claims in the videos remain to be proven, but the releases provide an interesting view on current developments within al-Shabab as well as illuminating al-Berjawi’s role within the group and his narrative as an epigraph for foreigners drawn to al-Shabab.

This article offers an in-depth look into al-Berjawi’s life, as well as some thoughts on how he may have become enmeshed within the contingent of al-Shabab that has been sidelined. Al-Berjawi’s death, the reported death of American al-Shabab fighter Omar Hammami alongside another Briton,[2] the death of long-time al-Shabab leader Ibrahim al-Afghani, the disappearance of Mukhtar Robow, and Hassan Dahir Aweys’ decision to turn himself in to  authorities all point to a change within the organization that seems to have been punctuated by the ambitious attack in Nairobi. The ultimate result is still developing, but al-Berjawi’s rise and fall provides a useful window with which to look at the role of foreigners in the conflict in Somalia.

The Life of Bilal al-Berjawi
Bilal al-Berjawi was a Lebanon-born, British-educated young man also known as Abu Hafsa.[3] Born in Beirut in September 1984, his parents brought him to the United Kingdom when he was a baby.[4] Raised in west London, he lived as a young man near an Egyptian family whose son, Mohammed Sakr, became his close friend. Characterized as “two peas in a pod” by fellow Somalia-based foreign jihadist Omar Hammami, al-Berjawi’s and Sakr’s stories seem closely intertwined.[5] Sakr’s family reported that the two men met as boys when Sakr was 12-years-old, and then lived adjacent to each other.[6] Most references to the men in jihadist materials mention them as a pair.

In a martyrdom notice for al-Berjawi, al-Shabab said that he was from west London,[7] while the BBC identified him as being from St. Johns Wood in the northwest of the city.[8] A community worker who knew al-Berjawi in his teenage years said that he was involved in teenage gang violence in west London, specifically in clashes between Irish gangs and Muslim youth in the area.[9] He was not particularly religious, although he appeared to be a contemplative young man.[10] He had a wife of Somali origin who he married when he was 19- or 20-years-old, and a child who was conceived after he had risen up the ranks of al-Qa`ida’s East Africa cell.[11]

According to a longer martyrdom notice published almost a year after his death as part of a series called “Biographies of the Flags of the Martyrs in East Africa,”[12] al-Berjawi was trained by al-Qa`ida operatives Fazul Abdullah Mohammad and Salah Ali Salah Nabhan when he first arrived in Somalia in 2006.[13] Under their tutelage, he seems to have flourished, although when the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) fled as a result of the Ethiopian invasion, al-Berjawi returned to the United Kingdom to fundraise and find ways to send money back to East Africa.[14] Al-Berjawi’s martyr biography praised him in this role, calling him “brilliant” and able to set up many profitable projects.[15] According to his martyrdom video released by al-Shabab’s media wing, after the release of his written biography, he decided to travel back to Lebanon from London.[16]

In February 2009, al-Berjawi and Sakr headed to Kenya, telling their families their intention was to go on a “safari.”[17] They were detained in Nairobi because they “aroused the suspicions” of a hotel manager in Mombasa.[18] Both were deported back to the United Kingdom (as British passport holders) and told different accounts of their actions to awaiting security officials.[19] When Mohammed Sakr’s father confronted his son about his actions, Sakr said, “Daddy, it’s finished, it will never happen again. It’s all done and dusted.”[20]

By October 2009, the men decided to try to return to Somalia, and this time they were able to evade detection and slip out of the United Kingdom along with a third man. According to the “Biographies of the Flags of the Martyrs in East Africa,” they had to travel through a number of countries before they arrived in Somalia.[21] In November, they were reported by Ugandan authorities as being at the heart of a manhunt for individuals allegedly plotting terrorist acts in the country.[22] The two were identified alongside a third British national named Walla Eldin Abdel Rahman—a name that corresponds with British court documents.[23] Al-Berjawi, in particular, was identified as having three passports with him.[24]

According to his martyr biography, having returned to Baidoa in Somalia, al-Berjawi joined a camp and trained diligently alongside others, undertaking “difficult assignments” despite being reported as having a stomach condition.[25] He was described as being supportive of his colleagues and a lover of battles. As time passed, he seemed to have assumed greater responsibilities, helping to supply forces (with items such as clothing and weapons) and to take on responsibility for tending to families left behind by fallen warriors.[26] In early 2010, Mohammed Sakr called his parents from Somalia to reassure them that he was doing well.[27]

In July 2010, a cell linked to al-Shabab conducted a double suicide bombing in Kampala, Uganda, on two bars where people watched the soccer World Cup final. The attack claimed approximately 74 lives.[28] According to one report in the Ugandan press, al-Berjawi, Sakr and Rahman were detected entering the country in July 2010, although it remains unclear the exact role that they played, if any, in the Kampala attack.[29]

By this point, al-Berjawi was repeatedly referred to in the Ugandan press as being a direct deputy to Fazul Mohammad, the head of al-Qa`ida’s operations in East Africa, although he seems to have been close to others in al-Shabab as well.[30] The “Biographies of the Flags of the Martyrs in East Africa” identified him as being in regular direct contact with Fazul, and even helping him get into Somalia at one point.[31] A biography of Fazul released by al-Shabab and statements from American jihadist Omar Hammami corroborated this, with the biography stating that al-Berjawi was in regular contact with Fazul[32] and Hammami claiming in an interview that Fazul kept abreast of developments in Somalia through contacts with al-Berjawi and Sakr, both of whom “were very close to Fazul at the time prior to his martyrdom.”[33] In September 2010, the British home secretary sent letters to al-Berjawi’s and Sakr’s parents revoking their citizenships “on grounds of conduciveness to the public good.”[34]

In June 2011, a drone strike that may have been targeting senior al-Shabab figure Ibrahim al-Afghani supposedly injured al-Berjawi.[35] This came two weeks after Fazul took a wrong turn down a road in Mogadishu and drove straight into a Somali government roadblock. According to al-Shabab’s biography of Fazul, in the wake of his death concerns started to mount about the circumstances involved, and a number of al-Shabab commanders, alongside al-Berjawi, Sakr and others, fled the country.[36] In this version of events, as the group fled Somalia, they were targeted by the drone that injured al-Berjawi.[37] After being injured in the drone strike, al-Berjawi snuck into Kenya to recuperate with Sakr’s assistance.[38]

It is unclear at what point al-Berjawi returned to Somalia, but by early 2012 he seems to have been back in the country and is described in the regional press as having assumed Fazul’s position as the leader of al-Qa`ida in Somalia[39]—although given he had been injured so soon after Fazul’s death, it is not clear how much he would have been able to achieve in this role. Nevertheless, this would have made him a target for foreign intelligence services and, according to a video confession produced by al-Shabab and released by al-Kataib that was posted in May 2013 seemingly to affirm the narrative behind al-Berjawi’s death, it is at this time that unspecified foreign intelligence services allegedly recruited a young Somali named Isaac Omar Hassan.[40] According to Hassan’s confession to al-Shabab, he was recruited by foreign intelligence services to help them track al-Berjawi so that he could be killed in a drone strike.[41] Hassan said that al-Berjawi was the first person that the handlers asked him about.[42]

In Hassan’s telling, he recruited a friend, Yasin Osman Ahmed, who was to drive al-Berjawi that day.[43] Al-Berjawi allegedly called Ahmed on the morning of January 21, 2012, at around 9 or 10 AM as he wanted to go to the market to purchase a firearm.[44]  Later, according to Hassan, al-Berjawi was driving to meet with the “amir of the mujahidin” when they stopped to make a phone call. It was at this point that the drone found its target, killing al-Berjawi.[45] In Hassan’s confessional, a month later an almost identical scenario played out, but this time with him recruiting a third man called Abdirahman Osman to act as the person who supposedly led the drone to its targets: Mohammed Sakr and another group of foreign fighters.[46]

Questions About Death
Bilal al-Berjawi’s death seems to have sparked a wave of concern within the community of al-Qa`ida in East Africa and foreigners in al-Shabab. After al-Berjawi death, hundreds of foreign fighters reportedly left Somalia. Shaykh Abuukar Ali Aden, an al-Shabab leader for Lower and Middle Jubba region, told Somalia Report that “yes, it is true that those brothers left us and went to Yemen due to some minor internal misunderstandings amongst ourselves. This started when we lost our brother Bilal al-Berjawi.”[47] An emergency meeting was held almost immediately after al-Berjawi’s death that was attended by al-Shabab leaders Ali Mohamed Rage, Hassan Dahir Aweys, Mukhtar Robow, Omar Hammami, Shaykh Fuad Mohammed Kalaf, and unidentified others.[48] Notably absent was Godane.[49] This seemed to echo another meeting that had been held prior to al-Berjawi’s death in December 2011 when al-Shabab leaders “opposed to Godane” gathered in Baidoa.[50]

Concerns seem to have focused around the fact that so many key players in al-Qa`ida’s East Africa cell and the foreign fighter community were being removed from the battlefield in quick succession. The fact that Fazul died in such odd circumstances for a man of his caliber and training,[51] followed by al-Berjawi’s death, all seemed to suggest an internal purge. When Sakr and others were killed a month after al-Berjawi, this sense seemed to harden, with Omar Hammami considering Sakr’s death “a strange incident.”[52] In between al-Berjawi’s and Sakr’s deaths, however, the new leader of al-Qa`ida, Ayman al-Zawahiri, announced al-Shabab’s official merger with the terrorist group.

The exact details of this possible leadership dispute remain unclear. Yet the recent executions of Ibrahim al-Afghani and Sheikh Maalim Burhan,[53] the reported death of American Omar Hammami,[54] Hassan Dahir Aweys’ decision to hand himself over to authorities in Mogadishu, and Mukhtar Robow’s abrupt move into hiding[55] all indicate that whatever leadership struggle was underway has now come into the open with Godane emerging victorious. What role al-Berjawi played in this remains unclear, although it seems as though his death may have been a catalyst to precipitate subsequent events. The emergence of the video confessional produced by al-Shabab seems a conscious effort to claim al-Berjawi’s death was solely the product of external intelligence efforts, rather than due to an internal purge.[56]

Al-Berjawi’s Links to Other Militants
What led Bilal al-Berjawi to fight in Somalia is uncertain. His decision to train in Somalia in 2006 when the ICU was in power suggests he was part of a larger community of London radicals who were drawn to Somalia before al-Shabab emerged as a powerful entity. The fact that he had a Somali wife likely acted as a stimulant to go to Somalia, rather than to Iraq or Afghanistan, which were popular destinations among British Islamists at the time. These individuals were part of the radical scene in London that were drawn by messages advanced by radical preachers who circled around the “Londonistan” community. Al-Berjawi was further connected, at least peripherally, to a group linked to the network that attempted to carry out a terrorist attack on London’s transportation system on July 21, 2005.

The links to this cell can be found through an individual mentioned in UK court documents as “J1.” An Ethiopian national born in 1980, J1 reportedly moved to the United Kingdom with his family in 1990 and is currently believed to be fighting deportation to Ethiopia.[57] He was part of a group that attended camps in the United Kingdom run by Mohammed Hamid, an older radical figure who took over responsibilities for the community around Finsbury Park after Abu Hamza al-Masri was taken into custody in 2003.[58]

In December 2004, J1 was picked up by police in Scotland near where Hamid was running a training camp, far away from their residences in London.[59] A former crack cocaine addict who had founded the al-Koran bookshop on Chatsworth Road, East London, Mohammed Hamid is currently in jail having been convicted of soliciting murder and providing terrorist training.[60] Most notoriously, in May 2004 he ran a training camp in Cumbria where four of the July 21, 2005, bombers attended.[61] Also at the camp was a pair of men who were later detected to have gone to Somalia in May 2005 with three other friends as part of what security services assessed was “for purposes relating to terrorism.”[62] J1 admitted knowing the men had gone to Somalia, although he claimed he thought it was for “religious purposes.”[63]

Around a month later, on July 21, 2005, J1 was in telephone contact with Hussain Osman—one of the men responsible for the attempted London bombings that day (also present at Mohammed Hamid’s camp).[64] His role in al-Berjawi’s tale is similar to that with the May 2005 group that went to Somalia. According to court documents, by 2009 J1 was a “significant member of a group of Islamist extremists in the UK” and in this role he provided support for al-Berjawi, Sakr and a third acquaintance when they went to Somalia in late 2009.[65]

Conclusion
The narrative around al-Berjawi shows the shifting relationship between al-Shabab and al-Qa`ida’s East Africa cell. His travel to the region in 2006, and then again in 2009, was during the period when jihad in East Africa was of great appeal to Western aspirants seeking jihadist adventures. The emergence of the ICU that at first seemed to emulate the Taliban provided inspiration that was then spurred on with the invasion of Somalia by U.S.-supported Ethiopian forces in 2006.[66] With the withdrawal of Ethiopian forces and the subsequent overstretch by al-Shabab, however, Somalia appears to have become a less welcoming place for foreigners seeking to advance a narrative of global jihad.[67]

This is not to say that the jihad in Somalia no longer has its foreign adherents. The elusive Samantha Lewthwaite, the convert wife of July 7, 2005, bomber Jermaine Lindsay, remains at large in East Africa and is accused of being a key figure in al-Shabab cells outside Somalia.[68] Canadian passport holder Mahad Ali Dhore was among those involved in the attack on the Mogadishu Supreme Court in April 2013.[69] Most significantly, al-Shabab claimed that a number of foreign fighters—including Americans—participated in the recent Westgate Mall attack in Nairobi.[70]

Yet Somalia has lost some of its luster, something that has been accelerated by the emergence of alternative battlefields like Syria or North Africa as places where young Western jihadist tourists can go. This is a situation that could reverse itself, but until some greater clarity is cast over Godane’s power grab in the organization and the status of al-Shabab, it seems likely that fewer foreigners will be drawn to that battlefield. The life and times of Bilal al-Berjawi offer a window with which to see the waxing and waning appeal of East Africa for Western jihadists.

Raffaello Pantucci is a Senior Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and the author of the forthcoming We Love Death As You Love Life: Britain’s Suburban Mujahedeen (Hurst/Columbia University Press).

[1] “A Drone Strike Pronounces a Martyr,” al-Shabab, January 21, 2012.

[2] Tom Whitehead, Mike Pflanz and Ben Farmer, “British Terror Suspect Linked to ‘White Widow’ Samantha Lewthwaite Reportedly Killed,” Telegraph, September 12, 2013. In fact, it is not clear whether the individual identified in the article was the same Briton killed alongside Hammami, although it seems clear that the kunya identifying him as British was correct (Osama al-Britani).

[3] One Ugandan report also gave him the following pseudonyms: Hallway Carpet, Omar Yusuf and Bilal el Berjaour. See Barbara Among, “Police Foil Another Bomb Attack in Kampala,” New Vision, September 25, 2010. An online biography released about al-Berjawi also mentioned he liked to use the name Abu Dujana.

[4] Among; Chris Woods, “Parents of British Man Killed by US Drone Blame UK Government,” The Bureau of Investigative Journalism, March 15, 2013.

[5] This quote is based on a Twitter conversation between this author and the @abumamerican Twitter handle, April 19, 2013. Omar Hammami is believed to be the owner of that handle.

[6] Woods.

[7] “A Drone Strike Pronounces a Martyr.”

[8] Secunder Kermani, “Drone Victim’s Somalia Visits Probed,” BBC, May 30, 2013.

[9] Personal interview, Tam Hussein, community worker who knew al-Berjawi, London, August 2013.

[10] Ibid.

[11] Woods.

[12] For the entire series “Biographies of the Flags of the Martyrs in East Africa,” see www.jihadology.net/category/biography-of-the-flags-of-the-martyrs-in-east-africa.

[13] See “Biography of the Martyred Figures in East Africa 4: ‘Abd Allah Fadil al-Qamari,’” available on Jihadology.net, which seems to draw on Fazul Mohammad’s own published biography, “War on Islam,” and interviews with individuals like al-Berjawi.

[14] “Biography of the Martyred Figures in East Africa 5: Bilal al-Birjawi al-Lubnani (Abu Hafs),” available on Jihadology.net.

[15] Ibid.

[16] This video is available at www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPQGhZaxD5A&feature=youtu.be.

[17] Woods.

[18] BX v. The Secretary of State for the Home Department, Royal Courts of Justice, 2010.

[19] Ibid.

[20] Woods.

[21] “Biography of the Martyred Figures in East Africa 5: Bilal al-Birjawi al-Lubnani (Abu Hafs).”

[22] Milton Olupot, “Security Hunts for Somali Terrorists,” New Vision, November 8, 2009.

[23] J1 v. The Secretary of State for the Home Department, Royal Courts of Justice, 2013.

[24] Olupot.

[25] “Biography of the Martyred Figures in East Africa 5: Bilal al-Birjawi al-Lubnani (Abu Hafs).”

[26] Ibid.

[27] Woods.

[28] Elias Biryabarema, “Uganda Bombs Kill 74, Islamists Claim Attack,” Reuters, July 12, 2010.

[29] Among.

[30] In fact, it is not entirely clear how separate the two organizations were at this point. The al-Qa`ida in East Africa cell seems to have been quite small and largely part of al-Shabab’s community.

[31] “Biography of the Martyred Figures in East Africa 5: Bilal al-Birjawi al-Lubnani (Abu Hafs).”

[32] “Biography of the Martyred Figures in East Africa 4: ‘Abd Allah Fadil al-Qamari,’” available on Jihadology.net.

[33] “Answers to the Open Interview with the Mujahid Shaykh [Omar Hammami] Abu Mansur al-Amiriki,’” The Islamic World Issues Study Center, May 2013, available at Jihadology.net.

[34] Woods.

[35] Thomas Joscelyn and Bill Roggio, “Senior Shabaab Commander Rumored to Have Been Killed in Recent Predator Strike,” The Long War Journal, July 9, 2011.

[36] “Biography of the Martyred Figures in East Africa 4: ‘Abd Allah Fadil al-Qamari,’” available at Jihadology.net.

[37] Ibid.

[38] “Biography of the Martyred Figures in East Africa 5: Bilal al-Birjawi al-Lubnani (Abu Hafs).”

[39] “Al Qaeda Leader Killed in Somalia Blast,” The Star [Nairobi], January 24, 2012.

[40] This confession video was purportedly filmed by al-Shabab. It is worth noting that in the video the group alternates between accusing the CIA or Britain’s MI6 of being responsible for handling Hassan. The video was posted in May 2013 and is available at http://ia600707.us.archive.org/22/items/3d-f7dhrhm-2/SoBeware2_HQ.m4v.

[41] Ibid.

[42] Ibid.

[43] Ibid.

[44] Ibid.

[45] Ibid.

[46] Ibid.

[47] Rashid Nuune, “Al Qaeda, al-Shabaab Pledge Allegiance…Again,” Somalia Report, February 9, 2012.

[48] Mohammed Odowa, “Al Barjawi Assassination Widens Rift in Shabaab,” Somalia Report, January 23, 2012.

[49] Ibid.

[50] “Al Qaeda Commander Killed in Somalia Blast,” The Star, January 24, 2012.

[51] It is worth noting that in the East Africa martyrs biography about Berjawi, Fazul’s death is characterized as being a “planned” assassination, suggesting it was not an accident.

[52] This detail is based on a Twitter conversation between this author and the @abumamerican Twitter handle, April 19, 2013. Omar Hammami is believed to be the owner of that handle.

[53] “Godane Loyalists Reportedly Execute al-Shabaab Leader Ibrahim al-Afghani,” Sabahi, June 28, 2013.

[54] Whitehead et al.

[55] Hassan M. Abukar, “Somalia: The Godane Coup and the Unraveling of al-Shabaab,” African Arguments, July 3, 2013.

[56] This could certainly be true as al-Berjawi clearly was a focus of Western intelligence efforts.

[57] J1 v. The Secretary of State for the Home Department.

[58] Ibid.

[59] Ibid.

[60] Duncan Gardham, “Airlines Plot: Al-Qaeda Mastermind ‘is Still Alive,’” Telegraph, September 10, 2009.

[61] Dominic Casciani, “Top Extremist Recruiter is Jailed,” BBC, February 26, 2008.

[62] J1 v. The Secretary of State for the Home Department.

[63] Ibid.

[64] Ibid.

[65] According to court documents: “In October 2009 Berjawi, Sakr and Rahman travelled from the UK to Somalia for the purpose of terrorist training and terrorist activity in Somalia. The appellant knew in advance about the travel plans of those three men and the purpose of their expedition.” See ibid. Confirmation of support is provided through a separate court document: J1 v. The Secretary of State for the Home Department, “Deportation – Substantive (National Security) – Dismissed,” 2011.

[66] It emulated the Taliban in the sense that it was an Islamically driven movement seeking to restore order to a land overrun by warlords.

[67] Most publicly, this has been seen in the struggle around the American Omar Hammami whose writings and online activity on YouTube and Twitter highlighted the disagreements between the various factions in al-Shabab, but traces of it can also be found in Bilal al-Berjawi’s tale.

[68] Mike Pflanz, “White Widow Samantha Lewthwaite ‘was Plotting to Free Jermaine Grant,’” Telegraph, March 13, 2013. It is worth noting, however, that it was her new husband, Habib Ghani, who died alongside Omar Hammami. See Whitehead et al.

[69] Michelle Shephard, “Probe Focuses on Canadian as Shabaab Leader of Somalia Courthouse Attack,” Toronto Star, April 15, 2013.

[70] David Simpson and Arwa Damon, “Smoke Rises Over Besieged Kenya Mall,” CNN, September 23, 2013.

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Shebab threaten new attacks if Kenya stays in Somalia



NAIROBI (AFP) - Somalia's Shebab insurgents warned Tuesday they would follow the ongoing siege in Nairobi's Westgate shopping mall with further attacks if Kenyan troops did not pull out of Somalia immediately.

"If not, know that this is just a taste of what we will do... you should expect black days," Shebab spokesman Ali Mohamud Rage said, speaking in Arabic in an audio broadcast released by the extremists.

Kenyan troops invaded southern Somalia to attack Shebab bases two years ago, joining forces with a Somali militia warlord and wresting the key port of Kismayo from the extremists.

Kenyan troops later joined the 17,700-strong African Union force deployed in Somalia.
"We will make them suffer what we suffer in southern Somalia, we are giving a warning to the Kenyan government and to all those who support it," Rage added.

Shebab fighters stormed the crowded Nairobi mall midday on Saturday, tossing grenades, firing automatic weapons and sending panicked shoppers fleeing.

At least 65 shoppers, staff and soldiers have been killed and close to 200 wounded in the siege, but concerns are high that the toll may rise, with the Shebab boasting about "countless number of dead bodies still scattered inside the mall".

Could al Shabab launch a terrorist attack in the U.S.?


Members of al Qaeda-linked militant group al Shabab who have surrendered listen to a Somalia government soldier in September 2012. (REUTERS/Omar Faruk
 
The Islamist extremists from Somalia’s al Qaeda affiliate, al Shabab, staged a deadly attack on the upscale Westgate Mall in Nairobi over the weekend, and unconfirmed reports have said that three of the 10 to 15 terrorists were Americans.
 
Al Shabab has succeeded in recruiting dozens of people from Somali expatriate communities in the U.S. and the U.K., mostly disenchanted young men who had a hard time adapting to life in the West.
The group now claims to have 50 American members, and House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-Tex.) says that has raised “grave concern” that al Shabab might some day attempt an attack on American soil.

“When you have 50 Americans, up to 50 Americans, trained to fight the war in terrorism, the idea that they could come back to the United States is a real valid concern,” McCaul says.

Intelligence experts say the attack at Kenya’s Westgate Mall suggests that al Shabab, increasingly weakened at home by an offensive led by African Union troops, including Kenyans, is starting to lash out abroad to show it is still a force to be reckoned with.

Up to now, terrorism experts say, American recruits have played mostly a symbolic role in al Shabab. Its most high-profile outsider — an Alabama man named Omar Hammami — was reportedly killed last week by al Shabab after he made a break with the group. Matt Berman at National Journal notes that experts have detected chatter among al Shabab leaders about how they have squandered and mistreated their Western assets — something that might suggest they are looking to find ways to use the foreigners to inflict greater damage.

And the recruits — with their Western citizenship, connections, and on-the-ground knowledge — pose an outsized potential threat to the U.K. and the U.S… [With] relatively easy access through U.S. or U.K. borders, it’s not crazy to imagine that Shabab could be capable of launching an attack on a soft-target by a gunman abroad — like the attack raging in Kenya. [National Journal]

The scope of such an attack, however, would be limited. While al Shabab is allied with al Qaeda, it does not have the latter organization’s reach or scope. Al Shabab lacks a sophisticated international network, and its focus is pushing for fundamentalist Islamic rule on its home turf. That, says John Campbell at the Council on Foreign Relations, “makes a future ‘twin towers’ style attack on the United States highly unlikely. However, that does not preclude a small band of the home-grown disaffected actors from wrecking mayhem and appealing to an international context, as has already happened in the United Kingdom.”

The group has found fighters or financial backers from Seattle to Maryland, with particular success in Minnesota (Minneapolis-St. Paul has an estimated 80,000 Somali immigrants). Al Shabab this year even posted a 40-minute recruitment video, Minnesota’s Martyrs: The Path to Paradise, that follows three Americans as they leave the Twin Cities, go to terrorist training camps in Somalia, and die in battle.

At least four American recruits have conducted suicide attacks against African Union peacekeepers, notes Peter Bergen at CNN. “Whether or not any Americans played a role in the massacre in Nairobi that has claimed 62 lives, there is a deadly history of American support for al Shabab.”

But how big is the threat, really? James Fergusson at The New York Times notes the number of American recruits has dropped over the past five years, and that the vast majority of Somalis who have moved to America are trying hard to make it here, and embrace their new home. He says:
I remain, however, unafraid of Somalis, least of all of Americanized ones. I spent time in Minnesota in 2011 — the Twin Cities is home to the greatest concentration in the United States of Somalis in exile — and uncovered this reassuring truth: Hotheads inclined to support the Shabab may exist in Minneapolis, but they are a mere handful in a community of tens of thousands of Somalis who want nothing to do with extremist Islamism. [New York Times]

Source: Theweek.com